Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Eskimo]

It's an odd one. 9 times out of 10 you'll see charts churning out mild weather in the Winter and it's normally quiet in here as a result - to be honest, it's slightly depressing when that happens. This year, we are seeing models go against the grain, a huge surge of posts, and yet there are some who are still not happy. 

I don't understand to be honest. It needn't be reminded that we live on relatively small island on the windward side of a large Ocean, in the mid-latitudes where we are affected by both the gulf and jet stream. I'm happy with a harsh frost or two...because, to be honest, it probably would be raining otherwise. It's human nature to want more and more, but I think some people need to temper their expectations somewhat. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Eskimo

[Tim Bland]

Incoming .... 

[Climate Man]

Most coldies would settle for every time.  Yes it's 15 days out but trend is king. Also highlights earlier comments regarding cold not required to blast in from Eastern Europe. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Climate Man
Typo

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

It's an odd one. 9 times out of 10 you'll see charts churning out mild weather in the Winter and it's normally quiet in here as a result - to be honest, it's slightly depressing when that happens. This year, we are seeing models go against the grain, a huge surge of posts, and yet there are some who are still not happy. 

I don't understand to be honest. It needn't be reminded that we live on relatively small island next door to a large Ocean, in the mid-latitudes where we are affected by both the gulf and jet stream. I'm happy with a harsh frost or two...because, to be honest, it probably would be raining otherwise. 

The fear is, though, that we have some great synoptics at the moment - synoptics that would produce a lot of snow if there was cold to our East and NE - and people are fearing that they will disappear before we have a cold pool to feed off of. That's why people are frustrated and one or two are throwing their toys out of the pram

Look at this, for examle. A great chart:

And then look at the pathetic 850s:

It's a massive kick in the guts

And we all know that a few harsh frosts are not going to cut it with most on here. We used to get harsh frosts in the autumn and now we see that as a triumph in winter. It's small beer... but, as you say, better than nothing wintry at all I s'pose

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

@mods - perhaps time to split the thread and have one for cold searching - we had one called the hunt for cold a few years back which seemed to work.

Just feels like a battle in here between those looking for cold and those who just revert to "I told you so" posts.

or use the regional threads.thats what they are for.personally quite like looking through the regionals to see how different areas are doing.

C.S

[Tim Bland]

Nice

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

From a very selfish point of view I’m happy with ICON...PS where is Shakey..it’s moved east again and he hasn’t posted?! Shall we send out a search party?! 

 

3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all 

Happy Meteorological Winter to you all! Great to see everyone getting along! 

UKV snapshots below - lovely stuff for some! 

Friday 03:00

 

06:00

 

.. 

 

 

Still showing that heavy band for up here on Friday   I think intensity is going to be a big factor for many of us to try get those dewpoints lower (heavier precip the better) they often can be troublesome in these kinds of setups as was the case here last winter. I’ll still try to contain my personal snow seeing hopes for the time being .

 

[booferking]

That would be Xmas locked in for fun and games.

[Met4Cast]

If only the GFS could be consistent between at least 2 different runs. Remarkable even still the lack of deep cold despite that incredible synoptic. I wonder if the lack of sea ice is playing into that?

[LRD]

It's FI and it was a painful process but we get there in the end!

And why is that more promising? Becasue the Russian/Kazhakstan High has stopped feeding warm southerly's into Scandinavia and Central Europe

This is the only Kazhakstan Hi for me:

Edited December 1, 2020 by LRD

[carinthian]

Well the GFS (06 ) run shows lower 850mb temp values for Friday than the earlier run. So the risk of snow remains. Where ? think the disturbance with-in the low circulation still not determined. Tonights UKMO fax could provide the answer.

 C

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

If only the GFS could be consistent between at least 2 different runs. Remarkable even still the lack of deep cold despite that incredible synoptic. I wonder if the lack of sea ice is playing into that?

As long as It’s cold enough for snow (which end of GFS 06z is) then I’m sure most will be happy....

[Sweatyman]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

That would be Xmas locked in for fun and games.

But are you sure it will be cold enough??lol

[Methuselah]

The fag-end of the GFS 06Z does look a lot better^^

    

PS: I must remember to book myself in, for a triple humour bypass, once Covid-19 is out of the way!

Edited December 1, 2020 by General Cluster

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

So in a few days it’s gone from Wales to the South East..at this rate it will be in Belgium...

If you recall, when the low was first modelled it was positioned out to the West of Ireland, it has moved steadily West from then. Not a bad thing as it brings the colder (not necessarily snowy) air over all of us.

[Mr Frost]

2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

You've made me really jealous I was meant to have been on a Highlands lodge holiday this week instead I'm stuck in tier3 Kentshire with cold rain

Sorry to hear that mate - wee Met Office warning out now for Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday.

 

Hopefully things are a bit better from a virus/restrictions point of view later in Winter/early Spring so you can get up there - always a risk of plenty of snowfall at that time of year.

Back to model discussion - UKV latest snapshots for Thursday at 12:00

You can see from the combined snow parameters how marginal it is away from the North/higher ground at this stage. (If these charts are correct of course! )

 

0c isotherm:

 

Dewpoint temperature (c)

 

850HPA Temp & sea level pressure chart

Thickness (dam)

Hopefully by the end of the week some surprise/marginal snowfall for low ground in parts of the SW/S/SE- higher ground definitely at risk. 

I am done for this week - time to retreat to the regional thread for the days ahead.  

Good luck to you all. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Mr Frost

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

well for me the t144 of GFS very similar to where the UKMO is at, and shows why big Steve Murr highlighted it being a cracker of a chart.

I can’t see the concern for where it’ll snow for now, I think we are entering the front loaded part of winter with great synoptics, and if they remain the cold will only strengthen from here on.  
 

06z again a beautiful run.  Things are building up....there’s been no mad rush by the models to go from zonal to 6000 mile -20c easterlies in 3 runs.  This evolution ahead has been burning slowly and developing day by day.  Hopefully that increases chances and probability of fruition.

Beast from East with deep cold towards/over Xmas in my sights....

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

well for me the t144 of GFS very similar to where the UKMO is at, and shows why big Steve Murr highlighted it being a cracker of a chart.

I can’t see the concern for where it’ll snow for now, I think we are entering the front loaded part of winter with great synoptics, and if they remain the cold will only strengthen from here on.  
 

06z again a beautiful run.  Things are building up....there’s been no mad rush by the models to go from zonal to 6000 mile -20c easterlies in 3 runs.  This evolution ahead has been burning slowly and developing day by day.  Hopefully that increases chances and probability of fruition.

Beast from East with deep cold towards/over Xmas in my sights....

BFTP

I agree.

The 6z shows us that if the Atlantic is held at bay, the proper cold will inevitably come and in the run up to Christmas too, would be pretty special in this dreadful year.

[Penicuikblizzard]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

well for me the t144 of GFS very similar to where the UKMO is at, and shows why big Steve Murr highlighted it being a cracker of a chart.

I can’t see the concern for where it’ll snow for now, I think we are entering the front loaded part of winter with great synoptics, and if they remain the cold will only strengthen from here on.  
 

06z again a beautiful run.  Things are building up....there’s been no mad rush by the models to go from zonal to 6000 mile -20c easterlies in 3 runs.  This evolution ahead has been burning slowly and developing day by day.  Hopefully that increases chances and probability of fruition.

Beast from East with deep cold towards/over Xmas in my sights....

BFTP

Is that your prediction of a possible BFTE or just a hunch?

[MattStoke]

Normally I wouldn't pay much attention to the GFS at such range or to the CFS at all but to have them both showing a similar (blocked, cold) outlook around Christmas, seems like more than a coincidence. 

[nick sussex]

The big 3 disagree as to what happens with that shortwave energy hanging around the North Sea at day 6 .

This then impacts how they would evolve afterwards .

The UKMO weakens that and takes it ne. The GFS as we saw on its 06 hrs run blows the low up and has a terrible phasing with the incoming Atlantic shortwave . The ECM has a different take with shortwave energy clearing se but then at day 7 it goes pear shaped .

Whatever happens you don’t want a deepening low in the North Sea . The UKMO is the best at day 6 . The ECM and GFS are more likely to end in tears .

Regardless of the GFS well into FI teasing with its decent chart it throws out 4 different solutions a day so is bound to find one that pleases this forum . 

Edited December 1, 2020 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Is that your prediction of a possible BFTE or just a hunch?

I’ve been of mind of front loaded winter for a while with coldest hit latter half/last 3rd Dec.  But an awful lot to fall right still to get there.  Currently ‘Hopeful’ is a nice term

 

BFTP

[sebastiaan1973]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

GLOSEA agrees with a blocked pattern out to December 10th, but beyond that the signal switches to a more +NAO/zonal pattern, whereas ECM46 keeps the blocky pattern going until mid month before losing the signal somewhat. 

06z GFS is better than the 00z, but again we've got a distinct lack of any actual cold.

Perhaps there's a difference in:

 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

And this is exactly why I said don't get your hopes up 

Sadly those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat It.

Just to clarify as All Aboard stated, I was referring to Icon stopping at 84hrs. 

[Snow lover 2020]

8 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Perhaps there's a difference in:

 

What does does that mean for us then? Westerly?