Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

HARMONIE 6z in full, with a reasonable part of the country seeing some flakes tomorrow:

 

That’s interesting, must admit I didn’t expect to see that area of rain, sleet or snow over the South-East tomorrow to get swirled up towards the Midlands. Then again, I haven’t looked at the latest Low Pressure charts for tomorrow. 

Bet @sheikhy would be over the moon if something like this happens tomorrow he hee! (Then again, quite a lot of us would ).

Will clearly be marginal and the higher up you are the better, but let’s hope the sleet and snow is kind and pays a good number of us a visit. I’ve already headed down South and disabled the M4 snowshield!

[bluearmy]

Fwiw, the 06z ex op is another small step east - a little west of latest icon 

East of London and up through west of east Anglia before pivoting west through midlands (s lincs, notts, Derbyshire) 

Edited December 3, 2020 by bluearmy

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Plus the October Fog Index says no

The November fog index has taken over, and said a big yes.

[PolarWarsaw]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm 00z gave 10-15cms for my part of the world tomorrow!!believe it when i see it!!cold and rainy here today!worse type of weather!!

With the greatest of respect mate, I admire your optimistic posts and love how excited you get over snow fall. But you are chasing the rainbow on this one. These charts that show falling snow, accumulations etc - we need to use our own thoughts on whether these are realistic or not. I suspect there will be the odd local surprise, a couple of miles down the road from all rain, but otherwise it's northern hill tops for any snow and that's been the case all week. 

I was quoted numerous times and given quite the harsh reception when I posted last weekend saying that stagnant/patterns requiring weeks of patience never work out in the UK and that this week would be a chilly, rainy weekend. I also said that as soon as the mid-term started reverting to the climatological norm and people realised the boat had been missed on a front loaded winter, that the tone would change.

I'd have loved nothing more than to be wrong, but it's actually worse than I expected. Lipstick on a pig feels positive at this point. Wet, chilly, stagnant, the chances of snow at the surface are extremely minimal for the next extended period which will take us into/through the middle of December. For the intent of snow at the surface only, this pattern we are in might as well have been a 2 week Bartlett for what it's delivered/going to deliver. Obviously, it's been a lot more interesting to watch than that. What a shame the cold air just isn't there and isn't going to be there. 

Let's see what happens in the mid-term, but the trends are heading against anyone with hopes of snowy spell coming up. Being realistic, 99.9% of posters are here for snow and snow only, so that doesn't bode well for the mood in here. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[throwoff]

Looking like a lot of the country is in the mix for falling flakes tomorrow. 

Only a few lucky areas for it sticking around and settling but models certainly seem good for our first sighting of the mystical white stuff of this year.

The 2019 winter snow shield here didn't break till Feb, if we can break in first week of Dec this year it will be very positive.

Some great looking charts coming up.

 

[jules216]

I was worried about longer range outputs but then the Chinese model came to my rescue now there is nothing to worry about

[mushymanrob]

All we need is for the weak pressure anomaly over the Eastern end of the Mediterranean and surrounds to decrease in strength and there will be an exit route for the undercutting Atlantic systems resulting in a long easterly draw that would turn colder.

 

[Updated_Weather]

Maybe something to hold on hope as we go further into Europe?

[Matt H]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Maybe something to hold on hope as we go further into Europe?

Knowing our luck ‘longer term’ will translate into Spring.

[Tim Bland]

I thought we were leaving Europe I wasn’t too worried until I saw the CMA model being dragged out it’s almost as bad as us southerners hanging out hats on Harmonie for short term snow prospects  Let’s hope the 12zs start taking us back to where we were a few days ago..

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I thought we were leaving Europe I wasn’t too worried until I saw the CMA model being dragged out it’s almost as bad as us southerners hanging out hats on Harmonie for short term snow prospects  Let’s hope the 12zs start taking us back to where we were a few days ago..

We aren’t at rock bottom until the NASA model and individual GEM ensembles start getting rolled out.

[Kiwi]

25 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

.......  it’s almost as bad as us southerners hanging out hats on Harmonie for short term snow prospects  Let’s hope the 12zs start taking us back to where we were a few days ago..

[bluearmy]

Latest icon takes that bit of snow through Suffolk and Norfolk before it heads west through lincs and the s peaks 

for the ridiculous ec runs of yesterday to be right, it surely needed to at least have corrected west a bit, not east!

 

[phil nw.]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

If you looked at this chart at face value and the fact it's close to the shortest day of the year, you would think that we would having a bitter cold spell.

It all seems a waste to me.

Being within the upper trough I wouldn't think that chart would give the impression of deep cold though MS. 

Yes I get the frustration for snow lovers but hey with this halfway house we have less of a task to move to something colder later. 

Certainly better from that pov than raging zonality with a deep Greenland vortex. 

Early days yet. 

 

[Sweatyman]

9 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

Until you find her in bed with GFS

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

Until you find her in bed with GFS

They’ll probably break up as they’re always disagreeing with each other!!!

[Mapantz]

Latest UKV shows a little snow for Suffolk and in to Norfolk tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, not a great deal - Wintry showers. For Scotland/Ni, the UKV echoes the current warnings.

[Radiating Dendrite]

59 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Maybe something to hold on hope as we go further into Europe?

His mumbo jumbo twitter tweets get trotted out every year - usually means sod all in reality.

[snowking]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Latest icon takes that bit of snow through Suffolk and Norfolk before it heads west through lincs and the s peaks 

for the ridiculous ec runs of yesterday to be right, it surely needed to at least have corrected west a bit, not east!

 

ECM is certainly standing on its own right now against pretty much all other modelling. Given the UKV update above it sounds like that is pretty similar to the majority of modelling too.

As ever, radar watching needed, but you do get the impression the ECM has got this consistently wrong.

Ultimately you can probably forgive that in what is designed to be a medium range forecast model (if it indeed does turn out to be wrong), but certainly one to remember if events do transpire as the majority of high resolution modelling currently projects

Edited December 3, 2020 by snowking

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, snowking said:

ECM is certainly standing on its own right now against pretty much all other modelling. Given the UKV update above it sounds like that is pretty similar to the majority of modelling too.

As ever, radar watching needed, but you do get the impression the ECM has got this consistently wrong.

Ultimately you can probably forgive that in what is designed to be a medium range forecast model (if it indeed does turn out to be wrong), but certainly one to remember if event do transpire as the majority of high resolution modelling currently projects

The problem with this though, surely to be close in the medium range it has to be nailing the short term features.

I think the ECM has been pretty poor the last couple of years - prone to over-amplification and ridiculous snow amounts that never end up happening. I know somebody will pull out the verification table stats, but for me the UKMO trumps it everytime in the 4 - 6 day timeframe. 

[SMU]

GFS has corrected west & increased the moisture plume now to pretty heavy - now we need some of the white stuff on there

At least Suffolk gets 2cm on 12z GFS which is 2cm More than 06z

The outrageous ECM snow charts weren't seemingly inaccurate from a PPN POV so just maybe the snow amount-

Lets see the Harmonie 12z & ECM 12z

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, snowking said:

ECM is certainly standing on its own right now against pretty much all other modelling. Given the UKV update above it sounds like that is pretty similar to the majority of modelling too.

As ever, radar watching needed, but you do get the impression the ECM has got this consistently wrong.

Ultimately you can probably forgive that in what is designed to be a medium range forecast model (if it indeed does turn out to be wrong), but certainly one to remember if events do transpire as the majority of high resolution modelling currently projects

Ec 6z edged east ....if the 12 z edges a bit further still then it will agree with the 12z icon ! 

[snowking]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 6z edged east ....if the 12 z edges a bit further still then it will agree with the 12z icon ! 

Admittedly I don't have access to the 6z ECM, but surely that would need to be a fairly monumental shift from it's 0z position below:

Compared to the 12z Icon:

We're talking about the Western periphery being nudging Coventry on the ECM vs it barely reaching Cambridge on the Icon, so a shift of ~80-100 miles or so?

I appreciate that in the grand scheme of the wider troposphere that's pretty tiny, but at 24 hours out that seems fairly poor performance wise to me one way or another

[snowangel32]

This looks like a bust for the Midlands looking at the latest charts from a imby perspective. But hope you guys in the South get some it looks very marginal. Great to be bk for a new Season of hopes and dreams as we all board the Winter roller coaster of hope and despair. I just hope this winter the cards finally fall in our favour and the whole country sees some snow. Wild ride ahead good luck evreone. ❄

[SMU]

Yes look at the PPN radar V the ICON model - the ICON is poor The circulation is much better defined & further NW