Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Atmogenic]

52 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Already the signs are there, pub run T384:

GFS Parallel this morning:

And, as i noted in the strat thread, one reversal of the zonal winds from GEM ensemble 2.  First signal, but of what...we will see...

For a second there, I thought that was -80 ground temperature in Iceland, I think it's my bed time 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Snowing here at 20M ASL so much for lack of cold air and no lowland snowfall  

[Mucka]

Good morning.

ICON not to be taken literally but gives an example of the sort of set up that can produce frontal snow in a battleground scenario with a low sliding against cold continental flow

 

Not a bad UKMO 144 chart by any means. Atlantic going nowhere there.

I prefer GFS for the same timeframe though with its well defined trough cutting into the heart of Europe and Southerly tracking low

Actually produces a similar synoptic to ICON only with the pattern further West - nice looking chart.

If these charts don't get you excited then you aren't a cold weather fan. Stunning output from GFS so far.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good morning.

ICON not to be taken literally but gives an example of the sort of set up that can produce frontal snow in a battleground scenario with a low sliding against cold continental flow

Yep, uppers of -2 would probably suffice in that scenario, with the undercut of dryer continental airmass and accompanying lower dew points.

[That ECM]

Firstly, how nice to dive into the regionals and see excited people talking and taking pictures of snow. 

 

T144 Ukmo and Gfs. We’ve been in worst places in years gone by. T180 GFS now that’s a nice looking chart. Energy going under. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by That ECM

[Mucka]

GFS goes pear shaped in FI but I would rather have the good synoptic modelled in the more reliable and fail in FI than vice versa. Interesting days and model watching ahead either way.

[fellmike]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

GFS goes pear shaped in FI but I would rather have the good synoptic modelled in the more reliable and fail in FI than vice versa. Interesting days and model watching ahead either way.

Everone keeps mentioning  "f1" What is it?

[ALL ABOARD]

7 minutes ago, fellmike said:

Everone keeps mentioning  "f1" What is it?

Fantasy Island. 

 

 

[fellmike]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Fantasy Island.

in other words made up?

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Duplicate quote box removed

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, fellmike said:

 

Not made up but unlikely to happen. 

 

[fellmike]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Not made up but unlikely to happen. 

 

so the gfs chart this morning for 11th december  is unlikely?

[Climate Man]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

GFS goes pear shaped in FI but I would rather have the good synoptic modelled in the more reliable and fail in FI than vice versa. Interesting days and model watching ahead either way.

GFS shows at least 10 days of average to below average temperature. I will take that. Formula 1 lol, given the recent swings,  don't even look.

[Climate Man]

1 minute ago, fellmike said:

so the gfs chart this morning for 11th december  is unlikely?

Indeed

[northwestsnow]

Nice GFS  / UKMO this morning..

EC looks much flatter at 144 though ..

[That ECM]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice GFS  / UKMO this morning..

EC looks much flatter at 144 though ..

Whole thing shunted further west again tho.Much to be resolved

Edited December 4, 2020 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

Less said about ECM the better...

Hopefully a horrible outlier .

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Less said about ECM the better...

Hopefully a horrible outlier .

Well here's some food for thought

This was ECM 0z, 240 hrs ago for today

GFS 0z

The reality

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Well here's some food for thought

This was ECM 0z, 240 hrs ago for today

GFS 0z

The reality

Actually just notice the ECM is the 12z from that day 

Here's the ECM 0z

[mountain shadow]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Less said about ECM the better...

Hopefully a horrible outlier .

Two poor ops in a row, never a good sign.

[Paul_1978]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Less said about ECM the better...

Hopefully a horrible outlier .

Amazing how different the ECM is against the other models on the overnight runs. Chalk and cheese at T+144

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, fellmike said:

Everone keeps mentioning  "f1" What is it?

 The letters FI in the model output thread means further in or further out

[Beanz]

56 minutes ago, fellmike said:

so the gfs chart this morning for 11th december  is unlikely?

Fantasy Island (‘FI’) is a place which doesn’t exist in reality.  
 

The analogy is used in weather forums when looking at model output beyond a reliable time frame.  Beyond 144hrs (6days) is generally considered to be unreliable although this can vary.  You can analyse trends past this point, but using it to make any kind of forecast is not advisable.  Looking at fantastic charts beyond 144hrs is looking at FI.  
 

And when snow is concerned, anything past 3hrs is FI 

[dragan]

29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Well here's some food for thought

This was ECM 0z, 240 hrs ago for today

GFS 0z

The reality

bloody good job, i think this is your calling , can you do this more often?? it really highlights the uncertainty 

[northwestsnow]

Phew!!

EC det looks very progressive compared to the mean.

Mean looks slidersville to me !!

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Phew!!

EC det looks very progressive compared to the mean.

Mean looks slidersville to me !!

Largest extended cluster looks winterville....... unless the op is leading the way (and hemispherically that would be going somewhere interesting anyway) we should stay busy in here .....