Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[heath]

T384 offering hope to those in despair. One option, but of many. 

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z looks nae bad, to me... and with the guys down Exeter way talking of snow (even on low ground) in eastern England at times, things are looking good. We're even being treated to random 'hairdryer' runs, for good measure... What could possibly go wrong!

    

[STRiZZY]

Pub Run will give us some hope surely 

[booferking]

Big EC incoming need it to change to slidervile.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Couldn’t quite see it before, but can now really see the dog in that EPS chart that some other members saw earlier 

 

That blue blob to our North-East with the eyes and nose

@Zak M Those CFS Christmas charts is one of the very presents a lot of us would love to unwrap, he hee

It wouldn’t be the end of the world if it still brings in a bit of an Atlantic influence, but with that big 12Z ECMWF coming up, it may be best to make sure you’ve got something you can hide behind

[Jason M]

22 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Reminds me of The day after tomorrow film besides all the flooding 

I'd put the odds of that verifying as slightly below the odds of humanity making first contact with an advanced alien species at the same time scale . 

[winterof79]

Criky, expectations far too high at present. Output looks good for early winter. PV all over the shop. Calm down a touch. 

Snow for a few today. There is no raging Atlantic although you'd think so even from some senior posters. 

UKMO only goes out to 144z and it ain't going to blast through scandi with no PV to help. GFS looks sound. 

 

[ALL ABOARD]

23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO isn’t a particularly great model imo which is sad as it is one of our best at our disposal, I think over the years it’s reputation has gone down, I remember in winters gone and it was a leading model, but now we don’t see that often when it has different ideas often ends up giving in. It requires an upgrade, have you seen how erratic it has been at day 5-6? Thank god we don’t see it go further. And yes, I know people like to share UKMO is second best performing model but if you focused on Europe I bet GFS at day 5-6 would be very close. 

Totally agree last few years it's gone against both GFS and ECM consistently at 144 and more often than not had to climb down. 

I also feel it chops and changes every run even within the 144 timescale. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Criky, expectations far too high at present. Output looks good for early winter. PV all over the shop. Calm down a touch. 

Snow for a few today. There is no raging Atlantic although you'd think so even from some senior posters. 

UKMO only goes out to 144z and it ain't going to blast through scandi with no PV to help. GFS looks sound. 

 

I don't see anyone saying the Atlantic is in charge?

I'm concerned it will be if UKMO and the 00Z EC come off,potentially stormy ..

[markw2680]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I don't see anyone saying the Atlantic is in charge?

I'm concerned it will be if UKMO and the 00Z EC come off,potentially stormy ..

Bring it on I say, I like the extremes tbh not boring nothing crap and I certainly don’t like this marginal talk of cold rain lol. If it don’t snow give me storms any day

[dragan]

Just now, markw2680 said:

Bring it on I say, I like the extremes tbh not boring nothing crap and I certainly don’t like this marginal talk of cold rain lol. If it don’t snow give me storms any day

ooh, your ‘ard

[Scott Ingham]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

For once a tendency to under amplify the pattern. I wonder how much of our current "surprise" (I'll admit to being a bit surprised at the winter positives of the current phase) is down to poor modelling of pacific forcing. The RMM plots are showing next to no amplitude really of the MJO - but wiser heads than mine are pointing out that activity is higher than is being resolved by those plots. We are retaining that Nino-esque forcing to the pattern, conducive for greater amplification, and the models are now definitely picking up a growing signal for the disruption to the vortex that was suggested was a possibility in the autumn preamble to winter but now looks more like a probability. Personally I'm loving that Ural high. Meanwhile Nina is falling in strength - daily values for ENSO 3.4 are back closer to 1 than to 1.5.

There is a possible pathway through the winter that could look pretty good for snow seekers based on trends and current data. Many of the forecasts for the season were grounded in traditional Nina trends and the fact that the vortex in November got off to a flying start up top, driven by very cold air aloft. A coupled vortex driven by an ever flatter Nina atlantic drove wise minds towards front loaded cold and a poor back half. But the atmosphere refuses to couple with Nina (assisted by ongoing MJO forcing) and it would appear that the vortex is not going to couple any time soon. Let's be clear on this - these are HUGE changes to the context that was seen only 4 weeks ago....and if tropospheric forcing continues to rule the roost, the vortex spins down and potentially splits, and the Nina signal fades away (and add on low solar, high snow cover levels now across Asia, impact of low sea ice, QBO moving ever closer to aggregate neutral) then this winter could provide something of real interest - and for once possibly in the heart of winter!!

I'm on the cusp of transitioning from growing interest/intrigue to the edge of excitement. It is wise to keep expectations down, and also to remember that weather forecasting is strewn with failures and dogged by unpredictability - but we are all on this site in order to have a go at reading what might happen (whether that is using a 5 day horizon or a longer term one) and things are taking a very positive turn right now in my opinion. I am in the same camp broadly speaking as @CreweCold though possibly with a longer lense through into end of Jan/early Feb as the core component.

Meanwhile pictures of snow in lowland areas - those enjoying a brief blast of winter - cash in and smile. I hope to do the same soon. I'll be leaving Somerset and moving to Lincolnshire in time for January. That in itself has to be grounds for optimism in terms of cold weather potential...

 

I think me and you are on the same page with a wintry end of January and all of February. Summed up much better than I could with dyslexia!

[Sweatyman]

58 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Bonkers CFS run as usual this evening.

This chart is for Christmas Day - would almost certainly be a white Christmas for the majority.

   

And then the day after...

         

You can see the -18c isotherm clipping Kent!

Every december it shows this kind of thing. Load of old rubbish CFS.

 

[booferking]

Ec looks progressive early on this run low of ESB is blown up already.

Edited December 4, 2020 by booferking

[nick sussex]

The ECM at day 5 looks slightly better than the UKMO with less shortwave activity to the north .

 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM at day 5 looks slightly better than the UKMO with less shortwave activity to the north .

 

Need to slide next frame chance.

[booferking]

Slides

[mb018538]

All this talk of UKMO going downhill is anecdotal in my view. It still verifies as second best, so the standards haven’t slipped at all.

[nick sussex]

A huge difference between the GFS and ECM/UKMO .

The former takes two low pressures east at day 6 , the latter phase these into one system .

The ECM is less progressive than this mornings run and the UKMO has gone in the opposite direction.

Ordinarily the stakes would be higher for coldies , this isn’t a snow or rain situation regarding the frontal band associated with the approaching low pressure .

Its a rain or question mark scenario ! We simply don’t currently have the guaranteed level of cold to draw on to undercut any precip.

Putting that aside we still want the solutions which drive more energy se wards so for the UKMO adios and don’t bother showing up again with that output ! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thou shalt not pass

[Tim Bland]

21 minutes ago, booferking said:

Slides

Hmm not really much of a slider though is it. More of a front pushing west to east with some snow over highest ground in North..

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thou shalt not pass

So close.. please creep under

[Captain Shortwave]

Multiple ECM runs where it develops a cut off high close to Alaska, which puts pressure on the low heights over the pole. However tonight’s run doesn’t seem as keen to drain the cold polar air into the Atlantic sector and as such we see a continuation of the slow moving pattern of trough vs the ridge to our east (as opposed to the developing +NAO of the last two runs).

Edited December 4, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Tim Bland]

This has more of a slider characteristic due to the angle. Needs to be lower pressure and further south and some colder air to slide into / undercut. Apart from that it’s almost perfect

[nick sussex]

Quite an improvement in the ECM latter stages from this mornings underwhelming run .

Thankfully it didn’t repeat that this evening .  Quite a lot of energy digging se into the mid Atlantic and a better profile to the north .