Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So close.. please creep under

Atlantic troughing is mincemeat...no way past that block at day 9 and it's amplifying upstream too

These are far from usual, zonal synoptics.

Edited December 4, 2020 by CreweCold

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Criky, expectations far too high at present. Output looks good for early winter. PV all over the shop. Calm down a touch. 

Snow for a few today. There is no raging Atlantic although you'd think so even from some senior posters. 

UKMO only goes out to 144z and it ain't going to blast through scandi with no PV to help. GFS looks sound. 

 

ECM same as ukmo at144z in my eyes. Ends up nice. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

et voila...

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite an improvement in the ECM latter stages from this mornings underwhelming run .

Thankfully it didn’t repeat that this evening .  Quite a lot of energy digging se into the mid Atlantic and a better profile to the north .

Drat! That's me buying a ticket for the pub run and early start Saturday.  But we love it!

[Paul_1978]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

These are far from usual, zonal synoptics.

This. I think whatever anyone’s weather preference, no one can say it’s not great model watching. 

We might not get the exact outcome we want but overall I think it’s the best model watching we’ve had for a looooong time. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Paul_1978

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

et voila...

Fair play CC even if it does not verify I felt you were sensing an outcome of that sort from 168 along with broader musings 

[dragan]

unusual synoptics......which provide us with usual weather lol, these charts are basically showing average temps up and down the uk. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, dragan said:

unusual synoptics......which provide us with usual weather lol, these charts are basically showing average temps up and down the uk. 

The longer we keep these synoptics, the better the chance of severe cold down the line...

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The longer we keep these synoptics, the better the chance of severe cold down the line...

But by no means it's a guarantee heck we could have this synoptics for the rest of December and doesn't pay off

I would rather would have it sooner then later myself 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Short snowy video 

and the thundersnow, rumble at the start but main bit at 6:55 with the flashes and the thunder (the one before I started recording I didn’t catch as I had tried to sleep was a proper shotgun rumble). ? 

 

I also agree with those that see the big blocking high to the east as beneficial rather than a hindrance, quite a few interesting blocked setups continue to appear in the ensembles.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

But by no means it's a guarantee heck we could have this synoptics for the rest of December and doesn't pay off

I would rather would have it sooner then later myself 

It's interesting because it has been a long long time since we had something very wintry during the heart of winter i.e January. Seems to be a possibility this year and it could be a shock to the system!

[dragan]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's interesting because it has been a long long time since we had something very wintry during the heart of winter i.e January. Seems to be a possibility this year and it could be a shock to the system!

so true, it’s either early (2009/2010) or late into march.

Just wish we could hit the sweet spot! 

[Day 10]

On 03/12/2020 at 18:57, Day 10 said:

Too progressive at the minute but wouldn't be surprised to see this modeled further west as we move to a more reliable time frame.

Nice little cold pool developing there too.

Didn't take long then, ECM this evening same time frame already backing off and less progressive with the Atlantic.

On the whole not a bad set of model runs, wouldn't it be nice to get the doozy cold uppers bang on the Christmas hols, no point in wasting them now is there!

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 12z mean it’s a pretty cold outlook throughout the next few weeks on balance, temps below average and a chance of some snow in places...it certainly doesn’t look like coldies are staring down the barrel at a mild outlook for sure!

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Didn't take long then, ECM this evening same time frame already backing off and less progressive with the Atlantic.

On the whole not a bad set of model runs, wouldn't it be nice to get the doozy cold uppers bang on the Christmas hols, no point in wasting them now is there!

This is only a week or so before Xmas and there’s no cold in sight though unfortunately So frustrating to keep seeing these Synoptics without any cold to make use of

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, dragan said:

so true, it’s either early (2009/2010) or late into march.

Just wish we could hit the sweet spot! 

This is so frustrating! Too early and there isn’t enough cold to tap into, and too late and the sun is too strong and melts any snow. Please let us have something late December to early February in the sweet spot!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

This is so frustrating! Too early and there isn’t enough cold to tap into, and too late and the sun is too strong and melts any snow. Please let us have something late December to early February in the sweet spot!

Surely on average the most Westerly/Atlantic dominated period of the year

[BlueHedgehog074]

Comparing both the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF at 192 hours, and it is a step in the right direction.

00Z ECMWF

 

12Z ECMWF

The Atlantic Low to our West showing a bit more disruption and there is a more open European upper trough to our East-South-East for Low Pressure to slide towards. Amplification upstream in the Western Atlantic too. 
 

Differences become even more noticeable at 216 hours where the 12Z ECMWF makes more use of the block to our North-East compared to its earlier run:

00Z ECMWF

 

12Z ECMWF 

Heights more expansive between Scandinavia and Eastern Greenland. And thus, the Low Pressure in the Atlantic over South-Western UK becomes tiny and loses its strength. 
 

And by 240 hours, that Low has slid over Southern UK and has almost passed away Victory for the Russian/Scandinavian High on the 12Z run.

00Z ECMWF (with the stronger heights to our South-East and more organised Low Pressure out West in the Atlantic) 

12Z ECMWF

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models to me are ‘smelling’ heavily of my BFTE (Blast from the East) approaching Xmas time.  ECM and GFS are very pleasing imo

 BFTP

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Surely on average the most Westerly/Atlantic dominated period of the year

It falls within the period where the PV is at its strongest, hence why we don’t often see deep cold in the UK in this period.....nothing is impossible though!

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This is only a week or so before Xmas and there’s no cold in sight though unfortunately So frustrating to keep seeing these Synoptics without any cold to make use of

21 days from today is long enough for that to change, I find the best chance of snow is usually from Boxing Day through to March anyhow (at least that's how it seems here on the Wirral).

[MP-R]

13 minutes ago, dragan said:

so true, it’s either early (2009/2010) or late into march.

Just wish we could hit the sweet spot! 

2009/2010 was the sweet spot. The first half of January, book ended by snowy tasters in December and more marginal snow events in February. 2013 also made use of the sweet spot, that just went on and on until April. It was 2010/11 that peaked too early.

[captaincroc]

For me, I cannot remember a Scandi/Russian high be so persistent.  Normally a bubble of high pressure might start in Scandi but then sink into Eastern Europe etc...but for what seems like weeks it just keeps coming back.

 

...and I don't want to tempt fate but I actually think it heads a bit more west each time. 

[Methuselah]

Must admit chaps, I really see little to be despondent about: we've some of the best December synoptics, for years -- it's even snowed here!  And it must be the airmass that's doing it, because SSTs (in the North Sea) are quite substantially above where they'd normally be at this time of year...

And, I'd be surprised (should the blocked pattern persist, for any length of time) if deep cold doesn't soon start to show its hand, over Scandinavia?

Keep the faith!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, captaincroc said:

For me, I cannot remember a Scandi/Russian high be so persistent.  Normally a bubble of high pressure might start in Scandi but then sink into Eastern Europe etc...but for what seems like weeks it just keeps coming back.

 

...and I don't want to tempt fate but I actually think it heads a bit more west each time. 

Good to see you back for another year in the madhouse Ben!

I see your interest has been raised as much as mine with regards to the output. Still jealous you have height on your side these days though!