Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Man With Beard]

Looking out to mid December, look at the northern blocking kicking around on the biggest two clusters

Not ideally positioned at this point but you can realistically see something cold developing from it, either from another sinking low, or filtering down from the east. It's going to be interesting model watching next week.

 

 

[SLEETY]

12 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Just seen long range forecast they saying jet stream coming back in to play next week  low pressure to the north west.  but what I’ve seen tonight on models is low pressure going south east with Continental air coming from east what sort of models are they looking at .

Thats the beeb long-range forecast,they seem to get these long range forecasts more wrong than correct.Metogroup going with the ukmet model then,despite the other two models not so keen in Atlantic coming back.Strange they ignored those two models in that recent forecast.

[Mike Poole]

42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean has the Atlantic in charge as we move forward through next week...

I don’t see this from the mean charts T240:

I see from the mean the block in charge, and the potential for sliders from the Atlantic systems, look at the elongation, much less than on an op run but it is there, and then from the spread, uncertainty over the track of the low pressures is clear, but also clear is the lack of uncertainty with respect to the block.

[Uncertainty]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Or would you rather have a similar one to what we have now.

 

And where did that get us?

Nowhere, lol. Even Glosea had us for a cold one that year didn’t it. This time it doesn’t. 

But it did get precede an SSW that year, albeit one that favoured us little.

But I agree that we’re always at the risk of vortex intensification at any point, and a half hearted reflection event can make it even worse -last year’s intense negative heat flux fiasco after the botched warming being a case in point). But seen as the Atlantic SSTs clearly don’t match 2010s I figure the only way we’re getting serious cold this year is a split ssw therefore a strong scandi-Greenland dipole for as long as possible is our best trop-based hope. 

[Downburst]

50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I don’t see this from the mean charts T240:

I see from the mean the block in charge, and the potential for sliders from the Atlantic systems, look at the elongation, much less than on an op run but it is there, and then from the spread, uncertainty over the track of the low pressures is clear, but also clear is the lack of uncertainty with respect to the block.

Couldn’t agree more. We have negative angular momentum for most of the rest of the month (and only starting), a very classical La Nina pattern indeed, specifically a high pressure anomaly northern Russia into Scandinavia. It’s primed to produce the goods at anytime over the next couple of months

[Bradley in Kent]

From November to March all I do when looking at synoptic models is think 'C'mon, merge, MMEEERRRGGGGEE!'

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Nowhere, lol. Even Glosea had us for a cold one that year didn’t it. This time it doesn’t. 

But it did get precede an SSW that year, albeit one that favoured us little.

But I agree that we’re always at the risk of vortex intensification at any point, and a half hearted reflection event can make it even worse -last year’s intense negative heat flux fiasco after the botched warming being a case in point). But seen as the Atlantic SSTs clearly don’t match 2010s I figure the only way we’re getting serious cold this year is a split ssw therefore a strong scandi-Greenland dipole for as long as possible is our best trop-based hope. 

Yes - i have my eyes on a mid - late Jan SSW, tbf i just can't get excited about the long drawn out purgatory run ups anymore - i love it when the SSW is coming into the 240 range and is showing on the berlin plots and the means, in my eyes, the whole month of Feb 18 was the best model watching period ever, when you get them insane runs coming out and in quantity as well, where you know your gonna end up with brutal uppers, just how brutal is the question, you know your gonna end up with snow, its just how big a dumping.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - i have my eyes on a mid - late Jan SSW, tbf i just can't get excited about the long drawn out purgatory run ups anymore - i love it when the SSW is coming into the 240 range and is showing on the berlin plots and the means, in my eyes, the whole month of Feb 18 was the best model watching period ever, when you get them insane runs coming out and in quantity as well, where you know your gonna end up with brutal uppers, just how brutal is the question, you know your gonna end up with snow, its just how big a dumping.

Yep, that was the best period of model watching ever, and I’d go back further, it was the most beautifully predicted event ever covering about two months from the first consistent signal on GFS at T384, through to the SSW itself, the fantastically favourable split, and the downwelling and the two main waves of serious cold end of Feb and mid March.  It is what converted me from an occasional poster here to a regular.  

For happier times sake:

[Snowman.]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Or would you rather have a similar one to what we have now.

 

And where did that get us?

Tbf you could post a chart from almost any year now matter how mild at some point there were chances. Im sure we will have plenty of chances over the coming month.

[Snowman.]

18z coming out now and looking pretty good, low clears SE well and better heights north.

18z  12z 

[SMU]

Ian Brown WTF moment. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening everyone

firstly i would just like to say thanks to the excellent post's in here again today/this evening and there has been some interesting reads

A look at the EPS clusters,i have saved a few from previous days to now to see where we are heading

Dec 1st,2nd and today's,we lose the Atlantic ridge to be replaced with Atlantic trough but on the latest it looks more undercutty under the heights to the NE but will the Atlantic be too strong?,we are still (and forecast to be) north of the jet for the time being

the EPS at day ten 500mb and MLSP anomalies(rotated for better view),this is not a bad position on the face of it,again trough SW of the block with possible undercut and a cross polar link up with the Scurasian ridge and Pacific ridge,my only two penneth qualm is we need more lower heights into Europe

And now for some more good news,we are in neg territory values in both the NAO/AO and looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future

 

so to sum up,yes the Atlantic looks like it is gearing up a notch and we have quite a big block to our NE but who will win the battle?

will we see an undercut?

will systems deflect NE to allow pressure to build from the SW?

knife edge stuff at the moment,great,....more model dramas as always and it is never straight forward unless it is zonal

finally i am glad that some have seen snow today including me with 1inch on the ground earlier and it's only the 4th Dec

oh!,i am late looking at the 18z,best dash

P.S,didn't you think that the ecm 216 chart resembled an....

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo,added text

[Uncertainty]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - i have my eyes on a mid - late Jan SSW, tbf i just can't get excited about the long drawn out purgatory run ups anymore - i love it when the SSW is coming into the 240 range and is showing on the berlin plots and the means, in my eyes, the whole month of Feb 18 was the best model watching period ever, when you get them insane runs coming out and in quantity as well, where you know your gonna end up with brutal uppers, just how brutal is the question, you know your gonna end up with snow, its just how big a dumping.

Absolutely it was Feb. There was even the obligatory GFS wobble Mike if you remember...

I think there was a run slightly earlier in the month, but well after the warming, that didn’t even build the initial UK high at all and just steamrolled the westerlies through - all adding to the fun.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Absolutely it was Feb. There was even the obligatory GFS wobble Mike if you remember...

I think there was a run slightly earlier in the month, but well after the warming, that didn’t even build the initial UK high at all and just steamrolled the westerlies through - all adding to the fun.

I think the following day of that run you just posted - the ECM 12z and GFS 18z had a wobble but the ens were rock solid.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ian Brown WTF moment. 

Looks almost identical to the 12z to me

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ian Brown WTF moment. 

Low too far south in my opinion.   But good to see these systems go under.

[Uncertainty]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ian Brown WTF moment. 

Fair play to the GFS if it nails this evolution Steve. Ever since the ECM guys gave it a few pearls of wisdom, added to the extra strat resolution, it’s been a little better.

The EC clusters did slightly favour this solution this morning though. Hopefully once the models polish their crystal balls it should become clearer tomorrow.

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Low too far south in my opinion.   But good to see these systems go under.

It was a loose reference

T192 messy but very cold still.

[SMU]

Just now, Uncertainy said:

Fair play to the GFS if it nails this evolution Steve. Ever since the ECM guys gave it a few pearls of wisdom, added to the extra strat resolution, it’s been a little better.

The EC clusters did slightly favour this solution this morning though. Hopefully once the models polish their crystal balls it should become clearer tomorrow.

Yes > Although I would just prefer the UKMO on board before celebrating...

[sheikhy]

Gfs 18z brilliant!!very cold with sliding lows!!cant ask for much more really!!!will it be there in the morning though?...

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Low too far south in my opinion.   But good to see these systems go under.

How would the low being further north help? It’s going to deliver rain wherever it goes as there is no cold pool to our east, so surely it’s better it heads as far south / south east as possible?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

How would the low being further north help? It’s going to deliver rain wherever it goes as there is no cold pool to our east, so surely it’s better it heads as far south / south east as possible?

Think that is practically the dictionary definition of a moot point

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Low too far south in my opinion.   But good to see these systems go under.

Beggars can't be choosers 

i would sooner it go under than over,gives us better prospects going forward.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z brilliant!!very cold with sliding lows!!cant ask for much more really!!!will it be there in the morning though?...

Every run is archived on meteociel so yes, you can relive it whenever you want

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Raythan said:

Does anyone know what happened to Bring Back 1962/63 ? 

Don't know. His Netweather account appears to be deactivated, and over on the US forums he hasn't been online for nearly 11 months now. Hope he is ok.