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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

These GFS runs are about as popular as tier 3...

4B0CD4C9-6A78-4CA6-A344-1A12A3C4D8E6.png

You beat me to it, although I was going to compare the GFS to receiving an urgent covid work related call on a Saturday night! It's never going to be good news

It would be nice to catch a break in 2020, maybe just maybe the ECM can oblige? 

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Is this now the no pub run?

the GFS didn't have a substantial meal....

Everything is still all to play for. Given the uncertainty of the situation (lack of a PV) models will flip and flop. I'd take what's seem with a pinch of salt post +108.... for all our sakes 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

You can see the changes early as t96 on gfs!!if it continues on the 00z ecm might well be right!!!

Doubt it mate, this run has lost the plot given what we’ve seen from the other models today.  Ignore it!

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Def a Mexican standoff on the GFS:

anim_ksh8.gif

Atlantic -v- block, an impasse and a bit of a period of wait and see what happens next? Certainly short-term no sign of anything too interesting on the ground. I am still concerned that the Russian high is spoiler rather than trigger from a trop perspective. We shall see...

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Oh, I see a bit of a change in the 18z gfs when compared to the previous run. Not massive, but certainly significant regarding the heights to the north of Scotland. And I am not looking at 850’s which are not relevant.....at least not yet

Yep - pattern shifting west......

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

As soon as you see the ever predictable target low on the GFS you know that the only option is to throw darts at it lol

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Decent FI coming up I reckon. Pressure building over Svalbaard

image.thumb.png.c7d5152616ab517144b015009a90d93e.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, LRD said:

Decent FI coming up I reckon. Pressure building over Svalbaard

image.thumb.png.c7d5152616ab517144b015009a90d93e.png

If it has gone wrong in the reliable, who cares?  

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If it has gone wrong in the reliable, who cares?  

Trends, Michael. Trends

We could be in that happy place where all roads lead to cold no matter what the starting point and we'll be buried in snow by the 20th December

image.thumb.png.b379489e2075072c07207ffdfb5ed980.png

Maybe...

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, IDO said:

Def a Mexican standoff on the GFS:

anim_ksh8.gif

Atlantic -v- block, an impasse and a bit of a period of wait and see what happens next? Certainly short-term no sign of anything too interesting on the ground. I am still concerned that the Russian high is spoiler rather than trigger from a trop perspective. We shall see...

My eyes are drawn to that that Russian/Scandi high which is continuing to advance westwards- heights slowly creeping into the Norwegian sea at the end there

Edited by Kentspur
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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Atlantic was blocked off in the Germany/Low Countries area a day or so ago. Now it ain't getting beyond the North Sea

image.thumb.png.db600c6aa07bc31564dc60167a59e92c.png

This run might be crap for us but the trends to push things West are there. Subtle but they are there

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, LRD said:

Trends, Michael. Trends

We could be in that happy place where all roads lead to cold no matter what the starting point and we'll be buried in snow by the 20th December

image.thumb.png.b379489e2075072c07207ffdfb5ed980.png

Maybe...

You’ve got some front!  Only my mother and overzealous Human Resources persons ever call me Michael!  But yes all roads may lead to Rome, but not by 20th dec, it is a longer game than that!

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted

My immediate thought with this GFS run is let’s have a look at the strat profiles with tropospheric cross polar flow at day 10. And not disappointed- upper displacement with lower split - even up to 10 hPa. I like the trend!

 

F3CF145F-D8AF-4419-A318-90A1EA14BA47.thumb.jpeg.c83d53dff36d13280931d40f449bd27a.jpeg

 

B2EF8D41-BBAA-47D2-9053-CD302647EA1B.thumb.png.e0238cf9893e76b7788d6dff0ed6bb88.png

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You’ve got some front!  Only my mother and overzealous Human Resources persons ever call me Michael!  But yes all roads may lead to Rome, but not by 20th dec, it is a longer game than that!

Ha ha! You're right. Bin this run 

image.thumb.png.9c5f8a11f1e6b0d64aa1b6ec18342e42.png

Thought I might have jinxed it! Purples back to thie usual place. 

image.thumb.png.6459c39d64d94bf946aff8bb56922fc8.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

This morning's GFS parallel has a pretty good end to it, with -6c uppers across the majority of the country.

gfs-0-354.thumb.png.b1eba586304471600901b92e1bf105e6.png   gfs-1-354.thumb.png.40a8db79402e55a8f31fcbf59ad4af77.png

Also, what's next? Am I going to be called Zacharias now? I hope not, that's not even my name

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

I know I'm often guilty of one frame guff analysis amongst all the really good stuff from most on here but this chart is incredible to me for the sheer extent of high pressure in the mid latitudes. The bloated Hadley Cell(s) in operation again.

High pressure from the Eastern Seaboard to Kazhakstan

image.thumb.png.75a41c18e42c3dc8d884870e9e42447f.png

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

My immediate thought with this GFS run is let’s have a look at the strat profiles with tropospheric cross polar flow at day 10. And not disappointed- upper displacement with lower split - even up to 10 hPa. I like the trend!

 

F3CF145F-D8AF-4419-A318-90A1EA14BA47.thumb.jpeg.c83d53dff36d13280931d40f449bd27a.jpeg

 

B2EF8D41-BBAA-47D2-9053-CD302647EA1B.thumb.png.e0238cf9893e76b7788d6dff0ed6bb88.png

Deep low pressure systems continue to build over the aleutians and spin towards Alaska firing warm air into the arctic. No sign of the dominant north pacific ridge that was feared - at least not yet. Tropospheric split has appeared in extended runs - cross polar flow a possibility and meanwhile our Ural high holds firm. I dont know whether the strat vortex can be split and reversed in time - but I do know that the trop vortex is not in good shape and this while the pacific jet retracts and momentum slows. When the next surge hits......another substantive wave break and more retrogression?

The question is - when exactly. Hard to say....but of all years to bet on a white Xmas this might be one to find £10....

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Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Popular Post
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Thankyou . However the party you speak of is one that is for the majority audience to enjoy and , however dull it may seem, not one for me  -  and also whose opinion is genuinely no greater (or less) than anyone else . I am sure you will receive the guidance, and also perhaps meant in the nicest way, the  encouragement you wish to hear 

I think it's more that people recognise that you have a lot of knowledge and are interested in your take of what the models and longer range drivers suggest to you. 

It may be true that most people would do so with the hope of encouragement for cold, but nevertheless I think most people just appreciate an informed take, whatever it suggests. 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs by day 8 build some euro heights and place the jet sw/ne ........

Not to be discounted. 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

I've seen the ecm go on its own merry Xmas way and then the other models follow but I've equally seen it go the same way only to back down to the others. I'm really not sure at all which way this will go. 

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