Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[IDO]

ECM at d8 closer to the GFS than the GEM though getting there a different way early on. It is at D6 when the low in the west on the jet that drives post-d7:

ecm>gfs>

gem>

GEM manages to avoid a link with the other Atlantic low, but GFS and ECM co-join those lows breaking the slider scenario. Very fine margins when the features are driving the trop pattern.

Edited December 5, 2020 by IDO

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I like more fruit in my jam. I prefer conserve and I am patient enough to hold off on the jam if there is a chance of conserve further down the line....

The ECM 12z has winds from North Africa at t+216. You'll be able to grow that fruit.

[Beanz]

17 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Cold rain alert

There's no cold pool

It’s slowly getting colder though...

[Griff]

17 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

ECM and GFS at 144.

 

Noted earlier GFSP and UKMO not entirely dissimilar and leave the GFS on its own.. 

[Mike Poole]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Here's hoping Chiono but I'm a jam tomorrow kinda guy.

I always worry that the longer we wait, something comes along to scupper the whole damn thing.

I’m not so sure, since I’ve been model watching the best snowy spells have a) been associated with SSW events, and b) have had an inevitability about them and to watch them develop through to the snow at the end has been fascinating.  I’m thinking March 2018 and the run up, and also Jan 2013, and March too, although that didn’t really deliver in the south, and the run up.  

We seem now to have a narrative that gives good synoptics now in December, has a possible SSW in January (differing views about when) and possible big rewards in February.  I’m set comfy with the popcorn!  Well, actually it’s beer...

Edited December 5, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

216

the point i was trying to make was amplification downstream with upstream ridge ahead of it into Iceland,the ECM doesn't quite make it but looks good on the face of it, @KTtom,that Scuasian block is good for a holding pattern for later down the line.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[dragan]

3 minutes ago, Beanz said:

It’s slowly getting colder though...

eh......no it’s not lol

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Steve Murr still controlling the GEM control run   still a very interesting outlook as others are mentioning especially for those of us that are of a cold persuasion ️ .. blocking still the big player moving forward, also have noticed a few runs trying to get higher pressure moving into the Arctic from the pacific side possibly one to keep an eye on. 

[IDO]

Not saying GFS is right but ecm is def moving towards the gfs solution; compare ecm 0z and 12z runs for d10'ish:

0z>12z>

 

[Scott Ingham]

The ECM warm up at day 10 isn't a bad chart its promoting WAA further west and encouraging that big Russian high over Scandi and Iceland. We'd be back in the freezer 5 or 6 days later and injecting more warmth into the arctic. Get a more acute attack and we have charts similar to the build up of March 2018

[Beanz]

11 minutes ago, dragan said:

eh......no it’s not lol

There’s more -4 850s on the ECM, it’s gradual I grant you, but definitely an improvement in the cold pooling on our doorstep 

Edit: I’m referring to 144 here, I’m paying no attention to what’s going on beyond that at the moment 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Beanz

[dragan]

well it’s certainly warming up on the ecm, if it went further we could have some real warmth for December, which seems the norm these days 

[Captain Shortwave]

Try again in say, 6 months time ECM

No this isn’t close to the GFS here, this is a late spring/early summer type of sluggishness in the Atlantic. Unfortunately the amplification has rolled a snake eyes to end up in a mild southerly like this.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[chionomaniac]

I’m happy to look at day 5 ECM and see amplification possibilities rather than looking at day 10 Armageddon type scenarios that never come to fruition. So with that, happy with ECM and UKMO when linked with the  teleconnective background factors. No doubt we will see something different with the socially distanced ( and substantial meal ) pub run

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, dragan said:

eh......no it’s not lol

In the reliable period out to day 7 the ecm is a pretty chilly run .... back end of the run unlikely to pan out quite like that 

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’m happy to look at day 5 ECM and see amplification possibilities rather than looking at day 10 Armageddon type scenarios that never come to fruition. So with that, happy with ECM and UKMO when linked with the  teleconnective background factors. No doubt we will see something different with the socially distanced ( and substantial meal ) pub run

Well, the ECM can't possibly be such a 'scotch egg' of a run as the GFS!

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Great to have you back!

Just need Tamara and GP to join the party  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, the ECM can't possibly be such a 'scotch egg' of a run as the GFS!

user name Scott Chegg next!

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, the ECM can't possibly be such a 'scotch egg' of a run as the GFS!

“Scotch egg “ That redefines the models....full of meaty output and ends up with egg on it’s face

[Hotspur62]

In the 8 years of model watching,in terms of winter weather,I have found this the most fascinating of watches to see how things evolve.You look at the Russian high in place and the consistent low heights developing over the Mediterranean and you would think all routes lead to cold but no that is not the case.There is no cold air yet off the continent but you would think it is only a matter of time.What is unusual is the lack of Westerly winds or south westerly winds which for the last 5 or 6 decembers have been a given.They appear not to be happening either for next 5-7 days( I tend only to look that far ahead).That leads me to the highly respected godfather of this forum John Holmes who rightly says look at the  0z or 6z on consecutive days for trends but that doesn’t really have given any clear signals either.Something very unusual is happening this winter and purely a hunch but I think we may have a winter like 2012/13 and may get 2 or 3 decent cold spells and hopefully with it snow for all parts of the UK at one stage or another over the next 3 months(some have already seen snow).

Fascinating times and great posting by so many on here.Thank you to you all

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean is endorsing the slider scenario at T144 big time:

This is good news, later on, T240:

Block holds firm, as per the spread, and trough into S Europe remains.  All good.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well folks with all the big hitters now posting on here it's becoming like a Netweather version of Wikipedia! All we need now is Michael Fish to join the party and its game set and match... 

Just had a gander at those 12z ensembles to see if there are any hints of those sypnotics bringing colder Conditions further into fi... And yes there are a few that pointing towards that... In the shorter term I feel a build of pressure towards mid month is a good call, with an increasing risk of more extensive frost given the right circumstances... If we could get that pattern to hold firm through till Xmas... Then boom, that's a result, if not a snow ladden Xmas, then a white over frost would be the next best thing.

Ohhh just to add good folks... The EC 6 month anomalies have been updated today... And December is most definitely showing as a fair bit colder month.. January is potentially looking on the cold side too... Its certainly looks colder than last months update... February is being flagged up as a warmer month... But that's a long way out... But I will add on last months update January was being forecast to be a warmer month too... So perhaps we are slowly but surely seeing a trend of perhaps colder Conditions in the long term... I certainly hope so. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by MATT☀️

[stodge]

Evening all

On we go then and whether there's a Deal with the EU I don't know but a Deal with GFS, ECM and GEM seems much more elusive. Clear signs last evening of a perhaps brief return of Atlantic conditions but let's see where the 12Z output takes us:

12Z GEM: - by T+96, the weekend trough is over the central Mediterranean and the next Atlantic system is approaching but this seems to be positively aligned with the Azores HP trying to ridge in from the SW. Despite that, the trough elongates and disrupts SE through the British Isles with the thrust of the energy NW-SE into Europe. Another unsettled and wet weekend beckons. The big development from here are heights around Iceland which serve to push the jet south and the Atlantic LP systems weaken and pull to the south by T+216 and by T+240 there's a weak but defined E'ly across the British Isles. 850s a -4 for many so cold enough.  

12Z GFS - well, the GEM was a distinct plus for cold weather fans but I suspect the GFS won't come to the party given its history for Atlantic "resets" in FI. Let's see. As you were at T+96 but a very different profile by t+156. The LP is just to the south of Iceland and the British Isles is completely under its influence so bands of rain or showers, but I note the Azores HP moving in toward Iberia suggesting heights are going to rise through Europe and the Russian HP has been pushed back so not looking promising for cold fans. By T+240, a very different profile from GEM with an Atlantic regime in charge yet there are signs of weak heights to the north and the block holds on to the east. By T+342 however the Atlantic is back in charge with the jet heading north and the PV looking to be back where it should be. However, pressure is rising over southern Britain and perhaps a hint of something drier and more settled and by T+384 the Azores HP has moved NE and the prospect for cold and dry (as distinct from cold and snowy) is still very much there. As we know, mid winter HP can being fog, frost and low daytime maxima. It's worth noting the PV is more over Canada which would help a Scandinavian or European block.

12Z ECM - so, it's 1-1 so far tonight with GEM scoring for cold and GFS equalising for mild. By T+120, some interesting developments with the Scandinavian block keeping the Atlantic trough negatively aligned through the British Isles. By T+168, the block through Scandinavia is even more defined and there's a light ENE'ly flow over much of the British Isles but the Atlantic hasn't gone away just yet and the evolution is far from clear. The journey from there to T+240 is complex. A weak LP is over Iceland but pressure has risen over the British Isles as the Azores HP has swung NE to be just to the east of the British Isles and it's worth noting a number of cold spells have originated from this movement of the HP NE from the Azores to Scandinavia. The question is whether we'll get the advection of colder, drier air off the Continent if the HP continues to move NE.

While 12Z GFS Control is very stormy and unsettled, it's worth noting the 00Z GFS Parallel wasn't a million miles away from tonight's ECM and showed what can happen if the Scandinavian block is augmented by the Azores HP moving up from the SW. 

Conclusion - fans of cold are still very much in the game tonight. However, we can't ignore the GFS evolution which brings back the Atlantic though it's a long way from the "zonal express" to Russia. The GEM evolution, while positive for cold fans, doesn't look the form horse but the notion of the Azores HP moving NE and linking with the Scandinavian HP to produce a stronger block after T+240 is one to bear in mind when considering possible evolutions.

[bluearmy]

Extended eps clusters show something I’ve never seen before with three sets of 33%! 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps clusters show something I’ve never seen before with three sets of 33%! 

Very happy for them, but what does that mean for our cold prospects?

(Or is there a chart in your post that i for some reason can’t see?)

Edited December 5, 2020 by Mike Poole