Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmm not looking great is it. Certainly no Beast From the East that some are predicting  

Probably won’t happen...just asthat chart has about as much chance of verifying.....but I’ve called it and maybe a blast rather than beast

is this your prediction Tim

Seen worse charts 

 BFTP

Edited December 5, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Matt H]

ICON 12z looks better than the 00z to me comparing the t180 chart to the updated t177. Not a bad start to the afternoon at least.

[Updated_Weather]

Let’s see what GFS12z brings.

 

[jules216]

6 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ICON 12z looks better than the 00z to me comparing the t180 chart to the updated t177. Not a bad start to the afternoon at least.

If that low stalls against the block we could do with pulling something from the north eventually 

[Matt H]

UKMO 120... please slide!

[swfc]

Not a great looking gfs 12z early doors. Looks to be on the change to a stormy spell of weather. Block still to the east tho

[IDO]

GFS and UKMO at D6:

Not dissimilar and maybe they will each give and take a little for the final result?

[That ECM]

T144. Cool and damp. Ukmo is preferred. 

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Not a great looking gfs 12z early doors. Looks to be on the change to a stormy spell of weather. Block still to the east tho

Watching the GFS roll out is like a slow motion car crash sometimes, at least the ECM just hits you with it straight away when it updates a day at a time.

[Griff]

I'd take the GFSP over the 12z!

[nick sussex]

All the models have been abysmal in dealing with the shortwave over the UK.

The UKMO was wrong at day 4 , the GFS also on its 00hrs run and since then the phase point has got steadily worse .

The further north the shortwave gets before phasing the more progressive the output will be following on.

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS and UKMO at D6:

Not dissimilar and maybe they will each give and take a little for the final result?

You would back the UKMO solution over GFS at that range given the GFS does like to overblow an Atlantic low.

That said I am not sure how much difference there would be in terms of conditions on the ground for lowland UK?

[chionomaniac]

Looking at those two charts one would say that the UKMO has far more potential both in Atlantic and Pacific sectors. After a while away it seems that the GFS is still not getting away from turning every low pressure into a target low rather than the stretched SW orientation undercut trend of the UKMO. It even happens the same in the Pacific and 5he difference moving forward from both those charts will be immense

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144. Cool and damp. Ukmo is preferred. 

 

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'd take the GFSP over the 12z!

Yes UKMO and GFSP vaguely similar 

[IDO]

Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

You would back the UKMO solution over GFS at that range given the GFS does like to overblow an Atlantic low.

That said I am not sure how much difference there would be in terms of conditions on the ground for lowland UK?

I am not sure I would back a D6 UKMO chart ever, but as you say I would favour ahead of the GFS as when it spots an Atlantic surge it gets a bit over-excited!

I think we are heading for a 5-7 day trough (cut-off low) period and hopefully something better will materialise after that?

[Man With Beard]

This UKMO D6 chart

could lead to a number of possibilities. What will heights in the mid Atlantic do - would they push on west, or would they link north behind the UK low? Not clear at all. But the chances of something developing that is favourable for cold/snow are well above average, as the jet looks well south of us.

 

[chionomaniac]

GFS shows a lot of amplification br T+196. Imagine that amplification but with the UKMO starting position and things could get interesting!

[Alexis]

14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144. Cool and damp. Ukmo is preferred. 

Yeah, that 965 low on the GFS ain't happening.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

GFS shows a lot of amplification br T+196. Imagine that amplification but with the UKMO starting position and things could get interesting!

Also seems to be making more of the blocking to the east, better to see than the steam roller 

[georgiedre]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

GFS shows a lot of amplification br T+196. Imagine that amplification but with the UKMO starting position and things could get interesting!

Its always a pleasure to have your opinion . Whats your opinion on next roll of the dice..  I see meto are now saying sunnier and drier in nw and West is their extended summary

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Looking at those two charts one would say that the UKMO has far more potential both in Atlantic and Pacific sectors. After a while away it seems that the GFS is still not getting away from turning every low pressure into a target low rather than the stretched SW orientation undercut trend of the UKMO. It even happens the same in the Pacific and 5he difference moving forward from both those charts will be immense

Yep the gfs can indeed be very guilty of creating target lows. However, the low this week ended up being a target low in reality. Ecm forecast this from quite far out and I remember some forum members saying ecm was blowing the low up into a target low incorrectly. However, it did end up being a target low. Lets hope the ecm is as equally correct with its current forecast of disrupting and stretching the low for next week. 

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This UKMO D6 chart

could lead to a number of possibilities. What will heights in the mid Atlantic do - would they push on west, or would they link north behind the UK low? Not clear at all. But the chances of something developing that is favourable for cold/snow are well above average, as the jet looks well south of us.

 

Mybe with a bit of time, but in the next 7-10 days I am not seeing cold or snow. The upper temps on the UKMO run:

d5>> d6>>

[Matt H]

GEM closer to the UKMO at t144 for what it’s worth.

[jules216]

i like 12Z gfs a lot just look at the difference in jet stream position against 6Z. Wave breaking event in western Európe would drive WAA and test will be good.

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

Its always a pleasure to have your opinion . Whats your opinion on next roll of the dice..  I see meto are now saying sunnier and drier in nw and West is their extended summary

The fact that I am posting may answer your question....