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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

Paul

By Paul
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Is the gfs sniffing out the EPS clusters here...

gfsnh-0-252.thumb.png.2decdbfd4e2e994cde5fa94d13f67671.png

good dog

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
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Posted
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can’t see it by day 11 ..... can’t see anything proper wintry (snow widely at low levels this side of  the 20th tbh)  .....

Hehe - I was being tongue in cheek though I'm moving to Lincolnshire so who knows what might happen on the east coast....

Meanwhile - pub run special for first thing Wednesday morning in 10 days' time.... surge of heights mid atlantic.... a day or 3 too early for me but while we all know GFS is cannon fodder at this range this is the sort of thing that sits on my radar for somewhere between 15th and 20th December. 

image.thumb.png.d2dd1d0ec060d6e288ef66230d61aadc.png

 

And this just before a possible pacific jet streak firing up hemispheric amplification. Will be very interesting to follow torques over the next 10 days. If we get a mid atlantic ridge followed by another +EAMT then we might have a block in just the right place for some fun and games over Xmas.

image.thumb.png.48abc30f5d881fdd7f6455a55dfb7433.png

All of this kind of talk is for fun at the moment by the way. This is a possible solution that has some credence.....but please don't think I'm putting this out as a nailed on forecast. Not yet. This is musing and seeing what cold opportunities might possibly be around the corner.........but no harm doing a bit of NWP speculation. This is the model thread after all.

 

 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is the gfs sniffing out the EPS clusters here...

gfsnh-0-252.thumb.png.2decdbfd4e2e994cde5fa94d13f67671.png

good dog

Knew it. As soon as I saw days 7/8 I knew FI would be good...it doesn't disappoint.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Plenty to ponder.  I think the Atlantic will Play a part but it’s HP that will be the key imo.  HP to west, trough to east diving south, my easterly to follow.  Synoptically it’s on the table 

18z is in my field of play for sure

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted

Whenever you get a significant split in the trop vortex that extends into the lower strat, then you will not see surface depressions cross this split. They will either be directed around the daughter vortex flow or hit an invisible brick wall which can cause them to stretch and dissipate. This is not quite a significant split yet but one can see what is happening as I’ve tried to show below.

BC0C6526-BC4D-4F09-B1D0-B7F28067C657.thumb.jpeg.2efe8800f90de7daeda1d31c7e84d4ed.jpeg

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

Okay I love the GFS again now.:santa-emoji:

6F6BC40B-854C-4D12-A307-69CFF4E0EA12.png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

3 days early, we know high pressure will dominate 2 weeks from 20th

This run is about 200 miles further west than I think will happen come Christmas week. Push north of heights over the UK to give a final blow to the vortex

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - I was being tongue in cheek though I'm moving to Lincolnshire so who knows what might happen on the east coast....

Meanwhile - pub run special for first thing Wednesday morning in 10 days' time.... surge of heights mid atlantic.... a day or 3 too early for me but while we all know GFS is cannon fodder at this range this is the sort of thing that sits on my radar for somewhere between 15th and 20th December. 

image.thumb.png.d2dd1d0ec060d6e288ef66230d61aadc.png

 

And this just before a possible pacific jet streak firing up hemispheric amplification. Will be very interesting to follow torques over the next 10 days. If we get a mid atlantic ridge followed by another +EAMT then we might have a block in just the right place for some fun and games over Xmas.

image.thumb.png.48abc30f5d881fdd7f6455a55dfb7433.png

All of this kind of talk is for fun at the moment by the way. This is a possible solution that has some credence.....but please don't think I'm putting this out as a nailed on forecast. Not yet. This is musing and seeing what cold opportunities might possibly be around the corner.........but no harm doing a bit of NWP speculation. This is the model thread after all.

 

 

A few days too early for me too. I'd have had tropical impacts around the 17th so with lag id say 5 or so days too early but just commented that I think this is possibly the correct route 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
13 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I'm beginning to think we may not even see an Atlantic spell at all mate. Not in the strictest sense anyway 

Yes, agreed.

At the moment it seems to me it is like we are playing BlackJack with the deck loaded in our favour.  In normal Atlantic dominated winters, we see a cold evolution in the model output in 7 days time only for it to evaporate as it approaches.  Until (if) the vortex gets its act together we should err on the side of optimism when regarding the model output as things seem to be on the side of coldies at the moment.  So no, I don’t see the Atlantic being an issue anytime soon, but that doesn’t preclude a mild weather interlude e.g. while a ridge from the Azores pushes into scandi to deliver the block that we need.  

No need to ‘hit’ with this hand:

88B13877-3DA1-4C2E-BDA6-D35B288F8982.thumb.jpeg.5ea0db172f574f4684c2abdcc3117a7a.jpeg

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Purely just for fun...

gfsnh-0-288.thumb.png.b2b896918d818328dfb61d2cbdae1855.png

retrogression west of that hp cell coming up with lower heights into Europe propping the high.

a fantastic chart,lets see some continuity from here. 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Pretty darn good effort from the GFS there. The easterly will probably fail, but that high has only one available direction of travel by that point with low pressure piling over the top of that omega block.... and the answer is not south!

image.thumb.png.c625c0780e908d41807066224abed6a5.png   image.thumb.png.f1b95e7180cc44fc98bea8538ca885e0.png   image.thumb.png.3f48f88f601672e79cc38bfc0ea506bb.png

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

Aha, so now GFS is showing a cold chart at day 10 its not useless any more . 

Ironically its the first chart I've seen that  would fit in almost exactly with METO update earlier. Showers more likely in S & E and 'wintry'. Upper air profile shown at day 10 would be marginal so 'wintry' rather than 'snow' might be the order of the day albeit maybe a slightly better set up as it would be a continental airmass and therefore somewhat more supportive of a little of the 'white stuff'.

Still, it will probably be showing a SW in the morning 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, agreed.

At the moment it seems to me it is like we are playing BlackJack with the deck loaded in our favour.  In normal Atlantic dominated winters, we see a cold evolution in the model output in 7 days time only for it to evaporate as it approaches.  Until (if) the vortex gets its act together we should err on the side of optimism when regarding the model output as things seem to be on the side of coldies at the moment.  So no, I don’t see the Atlantic being an issue anytime soon, but that doesn’t preclude a mild weather interlude e.g. while a ridge from the Azores pushes into scandi to deliver the block that we need.  

No need to ‘hit’ with this hand:

88B13877-3DA1-4C2E-BDA6-D35B288F8982.thumb.jpeg.5ea0db172f574f4684c2abdcc3117a7a.jpeg

Exactly on the same page as me. The ensembles trending milder isn't the Atlantic winning its WAA creating the block for the end of December. The 18z tho for me is nearly a week too early. Its reacting to the signals too quick and this does happen a lot so I expect to see this get pushed back and people think chances are over winter is over etc

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Aha, so now GFS is showing a cold chart at day 10 its not useless any more . 

Ironically its the first chart I've seen that  would fit in almost exactly with METO update earlier. Showers more likely in S & E and 'wintry'. Upper air profile shown at day 10 would be marginal so 'wintry' rather than 'snow' might be the order of the day albeit maybe a slightly better set up as it would be a continental airmass and therefore somewhat more supportive of a little of the 'white stuff'.

Still, it will probably be showing a SW in the morning 

Big difference between admiring a chart in FI and believing it. And from what I can see it’s mostly the former taking place.

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HUGE COLD POOL BUILD UP EASTERN EUROPE ALERT!

image.thumb.png.dc773d0198bc1fe89f15e5cb9c505150.png

Excellent... Alexa what's 288 divided by 24?

Only 12 you say? 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Aha, so now GFS is showing a cold chart at day 10 its not useless any more . 

Ironically its the first chart I've seen that  would fit in almost exactly with METO update earlier. Showers more likely in S & E and 'wintry'. Upper air profile shown at day 10 would be marginal so 'wintry' rather than 'snow' might be the order of the day albeit maybe a slightly better set up as it would be a continental airmass and therefore somewhat more supportive of a little of the 'white stuff'.

Still, it will probably be showing a SW in the morning 

Its not useless because it fits background signals. This is the point I've been trying to make. If a run fits background signals it has more credence. But I do believe it's a week too early for this set up.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
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Posted

image.thumb.png.7004a131313fb4b50525c4bda97684c2.png 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its not useless because it fits background signals. This is the point I've been trying to make. If a run fits background signals it has more credence. But I do believe it's a week too early for this set up.

This run will be 100% correct. Why? not because it fits background signals, but because we end up with a UK high and the cold pool ends up in Greece. Methinks GFS has this nailed!!!! 

Lets see what the GEFS say as it will be interesting to see if any support.

Edited by Jason M
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

My thoughts are with the ‘nothing cold going forward’ gang at this difficult time.:santa-emoji::cold-emoji:

4C1F0FFF-9752-4AB5-82D4-A73A56C3CC51.png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

This run will be 100% correct. Why? not because it fits background signals, but because we end up with a UK high and the cold pool ends up in Greece. Methinks GFS has this nailed!!!! 

Aii! It has to be if our friends in Greece have stolen our snow!!

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