Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

What about post 20th?

Everything is on the table within a big envelope.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I tend to go a little quiter when I'm wobbling as I don't wish to clog the thread with it.

It’s not stopped you before NWS! 

(Only teasing)

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like the beginning of the end for the (brief) Atlantic spell at 180 hrs on this run?

[IDO]

10 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Already huge differences between the GFS 12z/18z at the crucial t138/t144 time period. How some people can claim that this is the model to be following at the moment is beyond me. 12z first.

Looks just like a variation on a theme as you would expect from a complex set of lows being squeezed by highs. The point I was making is that these little differences may not have any effect on the underlying long wave pattern?

12z>18z>

Certainly the 18z is not trending more blocked, the opposite if anything! So, aw we will expect, GFS toning down the blown up lows but the outcome is similar.

About the seventh run in a row for consistent synoptic development, but still unsure as to post d7 as to the Atlantic ridge toppling as again the 12z gefs were not instructive?

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like the beginning of the end for the (brief) Atlantic spell at 180 hrs on this run?

I'm beginning to think we may not even see an Atlantic spell at all mate. Not in the strictest sense anyway 

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes it's slightly in fl and just slightly for fun but keep an eye on that atlantic ridge post day ten.

[Matt H]

22 minutes ago, dragan said:

eh, based on hundreds (if not thousands) of years of Britain receiving the vast majority of weather from the west/atlantic 

I understand what you’re trying to say but forecasting isn’t just about looking at the model runs and believing whatever they show, be it mild or cold. There have been some fantastic posts in here this evening that have given some very interesting in depth analyses of the current model output and put forward their views about where we’re likely to end up by the end of December (or earlier). Just assuming we’re going to end up in an Atlantic flow for the rest of December because of a few model runs that don’t deliver us cold weather in the near future combined with the fact that most years we live under a zonal flow takes no skill whatsoever.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[blizzard81]

Very similar to the ecm op here. 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like the beginning of the end for the (brief) Atlantic spell at 180 hrs on this run?

Looks similar to the ECM run of the Azores high moving into Europe and giving the UK a very mild SW'ly too me. Atlantic truly won the battle on this run at least. 

 

[Snowman.]

GFS doesn't quite hit the mark but the differences are large so early on, if the GFS is failing at splitting the flow and sliding lows then at 156 its likely more will slide SE?

 

 

[dragan]

Just now, Frosty Winter said:

I understand what you’re trying to say but forecasting isn’t just about looking at the model runs and believing whatever they show, be it mild or cold. There have been some fantastic posts in here this evening that have given some very interesting in depth analyses of the current model output and put forward their views about where we’re likely to end up by the end of December (or earlier). Just assuming we’re going to end up in an Atlantic flow for the rest of December because of a few model runs that don’t deliver us cold weather in the near future and the fact that most years we live under a zonal flow takes no skill whatsoever.

yeh, very good point i like it. but i’m learning so don’t beat me up. plus it’s the model thread, so i’m discussing what models are showing, and it ain’t cold. 

despite how basic and dull my take on the models are, it’s still correct i think. but thanks for your input 

[feb1991blizzard]

Big improvement on this run though, just as i had written it off!

[SMU]

[Jason M]

33 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Ive never given certainty to any chart at that range. Only give something a higher chance of being correct based on whether it matches background signals and fits into any model bias at that time. This for me has nothing to so with cold or mild bias. I have spent two days saying I expect a mid lat high over the UK Christmas week. Why turn this into a two camps thing? Criticism is there because its warranted and I strongly believe the Atlantic won't win out for all the reasons I've spent app day saying 

No, criticism really isn't warranted. The fact that you believe the Atlantic won't win out is great and you may be right (I hope you are), but its not for you or anyone else on here to criticize other posters. If you don't like someone's posts use the ignore button.

The English language allows plenty of scope for debate without being directly critical of someone else. (edited to add this line rather than clutter thread with more posts!)

Edited December 6, 2020 by Jason M

[IDO]

Better upstream amplification on this run:

This can only aide in the Atlantic ridge not toppling so quick. Hopefully not a typical Sunday pub run! Should get a transient cold flow from the north for a while with that.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

No, criticism really isn't warranted. The fact that you believe the Atlantic won't win out is great and you may be right (I hope you are), but its not for you or anyone else on here to criticize other posters. If you don't like someone's posts use the ignore button.

Its called debate Jason not criticism. Its what a messageboard is for. Someone posts an opinion and someone either agrees or disageees with a reason. Ive done the latter because its good for learning. If I agreed on a mild outcome I would say that as well 

[Griff]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it's slightly in fl and just slightly for fun but keep an eye on that atlantic ridge post day ten.

I'll refrain from reposting the latest tweet from Marco Petanga (see tweet thread hot off the press), but anyone thinking a return to Atlantic dominance should take a look.... 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Griff

[markw2680]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I'm beginning to think we may not even see an Atlantic spell at all mate. Not in the strictest sense anyway 

I’m thinking pretty much the same thing tbh, many many times do the models just blow a block away with ease only for it to still be there a few days later and gradually becoming more and more influential 

time will tell of course

[Allseasons-Si]

And who said that we would get an easterly first then the gfs shows a northerly

[Snowman.]

10 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Looks similar to the ECM run of the Azores high moving into Europe and giving the UK a very mild SW'ly too me. Atlantic truly won the battle on this run at least. 

 

Not for long...

 

Lasted 3-4 days?

Edited December 6, 2020 by Snowman.

[Johnp]

It's about to be an epic 18z...

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I’m thinking pretty much the same thing tbh, many many times do the models just blow a block away with ease only for it to still be there a few days later and gradually becoming more and more influential 

time will tell of course

Yeah youve just summed up my thinking very simply. Bowling ball low gone at 150 hours. Look at the 0z at 150 hours well see even more energy heading south. Eventually a tipping point will be hit where the Russian ridge ridges over the top of the energy north of us

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Looks similar to the ECM run of the Azores high moving into Europe and giving the UK a very mild SW'ly too me. Atlantic truly won the battle on this run at least. 

 

Atlantic won he says mild he says

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, booferking said:

Atlantic won he says mild he says

3 days early, we know high pressure will dominate 2 weeks from 20th

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It’s not stopped you before NWS! 

(Only teasing)

You know me too well Paul.

I'm dying to ramp up 18z lol.