Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Kentspur]

36 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Presumably we could have a trough sat directly over us and high pressure to the north / west and get a - NAO?

This is quite a big switch from yesterday's COD dominated update, just before Christmas GFS MJO forecast is for us to enter phase 6 heading towards 7. Could the models suddenly start to show more favourable blocking patterns this afternoon onwards?

Edited December 9, 2020 by Kentspur

[Radiating Dendrite]

19 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

This is quite a big switch from yesterday's COD dominated update, just before Christmas GFS MJO forecast is for us to enter phase 6 heading towards 7. Could the models suddenly start to show more favourable blocking patterns this afternoon onwards?

Still does not look particularly high amplitude though.

From what I understand, we need as much forcing here as possible, so the higher the better.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Radiating Dendrite

[SMU]

Updated ICON 12Z 120 > twin blocks over the pole forcing the PV to drain in the mid lats > troughing alligned favourably over svalbard > nothing like the last 10 years in Dec

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated ICON 12Z 120 > twin blocks over the pole forcing the PV to drain in the mid lats > troughing alligned favourably over svalbard > nothing like the last 10 years in Dec

And what I like more than the upstream indicators which broadly speaking have been ok is that on this chart we have lower heights towards south eastern Europe.. one would hope that would help the troughing in our part drain away southeast opening the gates... 

[Howie]

I really hope that the high pressure to our east is being over played by the models, it's literally the only thing stopping us from having a very good cold spell, so frustrating 

[Tim Bland]

22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated ICON 12Z 120 > twin blocks over the pole forcing the PV to drain in the mid lats > troughing alligned favourably over svalbard > nothing like the last 10 years in Dec

Icon 120hrs looks the same as the GFS at the same time and we know how that ended

[danm]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

 

This is a very good chart. Screams potential. 

[frosty ground]

49 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

if that Ural block had gone, we would be into easterlies, as pressure is higher to our north. the high to our east is preventing the westward progression of the Atlantic energy, and has blocked any deep cold pooling into Europe.

the problem with that Russian/Ural block is the ridging to its southern flank.

Or is that Russian Block helping conditions to be ripe for Northern Blocking?

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon 120hrs looks the same as the GFS at the same time and we know how that ended

Icon is better.  Look at the marginal better heights between Norway and Greenland and the Atlantic low less deep.

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon 120hrs looks the same as the GFS at the same time and we know how that ended

I believe we need the attached to happen.

[fromey]

It’s creeping up, slowly slowly catchy monkey!

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

It’s creeping up, slowly slowly catchy monkey!

That's pretty much normal to have those up's and down's at that level. It's a big spike that you'd be looking for, and also at the lower end, around 30hPa.

[swfc]

Already better Heighths at 90 hrs pushing from scan to greenland on the 12z.just south of svalbard

Edited December 9, 2020 by swfc

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, danm said:

This is a very good chart. Screams potential. 

It led to this a week later....

[fromey]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

That's pretty much normal to have those up's and down's at that level. It's a big spike that you'd be looking for, and also at the lower end, around 30hPa.

Hi.

many thanks for that, still learning.

Do you have a link to the 30hpa.?

[Mapantz]

Just now, fromey said:

Hi.

many thanks for that, still learning.

Do you have a link to the 30hpa.?

Yep - here

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Already better Heighths at 90 hrs pushing from scan to greenland on the 12z.

There’s literally no difference.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

There’s literally no difference.

There is on metiociel I'm afraid

[Duane S.]

I see the GEFS MJO wave is forecast to break out into the Pacific as hoped for a week ago.

One or two are off the scale in P6/7! (well one is, a few others are V high amplitude still). I'm not saying it is similar or indeed particularly likely but the last time I saw that (and we did end up going off the scale)? Februrary 2018 and we know what that led to...

Anyway, watch for much improved FI charts over the coming days as the jet becomes more amplified, Mid Atlantic ridging back on the cards?

My money would on last week of December into the NY as the next time period for some fun and games.

Edited December 9, 2020 by s4lancia

[Skullzrulerz]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Already better Heighths at 90 hrs pushing from scan to greenland on the 12z.just south of svalbard

There's no difference?

[mountain shadow]

 

-

 

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by mountain shadow

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No real sign of that Atlantic low going anywhere fast on the UKMO at t+120..

Stunning hemispheric view though..

That looks pretty blocked ami right I saying by high pressure?? 

 

[SMU]

Very positive UKMO tonight > 144 shows the -AO tanking, deep cold filtering out of the pole.

All of the UK cold spells have come 3-5 days after this..

The run into xmas is looking exciting-

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Snowfish2 said:

That looks pretty blocked ami right I saying by high pressure?? 

 

Ignore. It's still yesterdays.  

[SLEETY]

Huge potential in the ukmo 144 chart AGAIN,but will it actually lead to anything special,or  will something spoil  it as usual,getting frustrating this model watching

Edited December 9, 2020 by SLEETY