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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Please continue with the model chat in here.

As always, please keep it to the models and keep it friendly in this thread. If you spot any issues, please report the post rather than responding to it. If you're wanting to chat more generally about this winter, or maybe have a ramp, please head off to the winter chat thread:

If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Still a dip in the 850s in FI through the GFS spaghetti a la scatterati. Will this move further and further to the left over the next few days?

image.thumb.png.11687c2ba90ff46abba0085a08e8ff00.png

Control and Op go in very different directions towards the end. 

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

High pressure, but till 21 december no winter. MJO phase 6,7 in the long term.

14 -20 dec.JPG

21 27 dece.JPG

28 dec.JPG

mjo fase 6 en 7.png

14.JPG

Is that last one the change since the previous week? Almost made me think a heatwave was coming...  

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
11 minutes ago, LRD said:

Still a dip in the 850s in FI through the GFS spaghetti a la scatterati. Will this move further and further to the left over the next few days?

image.thumb.png.11687c2ba90ff46abba0085a08e8ff00.png

Control and Op go in very different directions towards the end. 

Interesting the colder members start to creep in after the 17th right on cue

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
13 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

High pressure, but till 21 december no winter. MJO phase 6,7 in the long term.

14 -20 dec.JPG

21 27 dece.JPG

28 dec.JPG

mjo fase 6 en 7.png

14.JPG

Big improvement on amplitude from the previous update of the MJO and those temp anomalies sniffing out the WAA expected through the UK and to the East

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ext eps mean has high heights spread widely ..... where will the low heights end up ?? The high heights won’t cover that wide an area .... the clusters (just the one) offers little help given that there simply can’t be only one! 
 

so not much added guidance this evening ......

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Consistency in the models in the very near-time frame, but then a divergence 120 hrs, this time it's UKMO with a more NW-SE aligned trough, whereas GFS and ECM phase the second low coming out of the Eastern USA seaboard and the trough becomes positively tilted. 

The trend then is for the azores high to nose in and we maintain a mild predominantly SW flow, but as others have commented, no sign of a fast ribbon of jet activity, the trough looks like it will come unstuck against building heights nosing in from the south, end result warm air advection which will prop up ridge development up and through the UK.

I said yesterday those who like cold looking charts should perhaps take a break from model viewing for 7 days, as the more medium timeframe is unlikely to show such an evolution. Expecting next few days to show very variable longer range output as the models get to grips with developments over the Pole (strong heights build up), and the interplay between warm air advection and cold air advection, won't be able to get the latter without some of the former first..

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Whenever you need cheering up there’s always a CFS run there ready to do the job.:santa-emoji:

0EA4D707-3605-420D-803D-1D319615DE19.png

7883003F-4DF5-4576-B389-07FF7BAE889C.png

Is the pub run ready to do the job again? ❄️:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I'm not seeing anything from tonight's EC46 that suggests major cold will begin appearing in the next few days. If anything going towards the latter part of the month suggests the EXETER update may be onto something with a chance of milder wetter conditions by this time.. Low pressure anchored over Iceland and increasing Heights over iberia... Know significant Heights over Greenland or Scandy... The ural block still in place, and perhaps a tad more displaced South.. Temps around avareage. 

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
5 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

I'm not seeing anything from tonight's EC46 that suggests major cold will begin appearing in the next few days. If anything going towards the latter part of the month suggests the EXETER update may be onto something with a chance of milder wetter conditions by this time.. Low pressure anchored over Iceland and increasing Heights over iberia... Know significant Heights over Greenland or Scandy... The ural block still in place, and perhaps a tad more displaced South.. Temps around avareage. 

well average temps is better than the above crap that we have been subjected to.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

T150 a few days ago vs t102 on the GFS 18z now. Just highlights once again how the big bowling ball low scenario was overdone by the GFS irrespective if the developments beyond this. Never understand why some people are so keen to believe the GFS the whole time.

6C643841-2F72-4951-B0E4-E6C8E0C0E783.png

4E9A8D86-2B52-45EF-B7B9-2A8935235AF7.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

I don't think I can quote a post from the old thread but I like the ECM animation posted by @IDO here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94764-model-output-discussion-winter-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4313159

Ignore our locale and take a look at the deep purples of the vortex and their direction of travel in this animation, note that at the end around 16-17 Dec the lobe that develops to the west of Greenland over N Canada is actually spinning back west towards Alaska - for me a positive trend away from any potential zonal outlook further down the line.  

Edited by virtualsphere
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, BARRY said:

well average temps is better than the above crap that we have been subjected to.

Temps have been below average for a while and quite cold at times.. Average temps do not float my boat one bit. I admire what the strat guys are saying but the 46 at this moment of time is not seeing it. The Long range anomalies are also not seeing it... That's not to say its gonna nail this pattern, but I'm beginning to think a major strat event is gonna be needed to throw the cat amongst the pigeons.. So to speak. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ho hum - what's happening here....have taken my eyes off these charts recently...

image.thumb.png.4073618fd0f0b4ead334ae8f3c56af1f.png

We have a spiking of relative angular momentum somewhat earlier than I expected it...

image.thumb.png.43811c32044572105c0d5f7195bb23bb.png

And EAMT holding up for now rather than falling back, with overall torques remaining high.

This being the case the flattening of the pattern referred to yesterday drops in probability - and in the near term the likely retrogression of the ScEuro high looks more likely. The charts are showing it in the semi reliable up to 120h before usual westerly bias takes over

image.thumb.png.cd303441609a7899dfaf38aefb333e18.png

All very good news. And in the more medium term? More modelling for the end of next week of the same pacific jet streak highlighted yesterday

image.thumb.png.b1b4fdd8e88060fe05c5aa261ad27b0e.png

which if correct (and it seems to be being maintained as a feature at present) would add greater weight to potential wave breaking for Xmas week.

Jumping onto the back of @chionomaniac and his strat posts from the previous thread, the impact of this streak would be to reinforce the split being opened up by tropospheric forcing, and to reinforce the point I like these charts. Modest wave 2 forcing in the lower strat being modelled for the same period (mid to late next week)

image.thumb.png.5cf98fee89eab17396f3da5ac2489cd5.png

while wave 1 forcing from the pacific side builds further in strength. This is now getting close to being a moderate/strong event

image.thumb.png.63faca065eb9af4a401eb1fea86c4745.png

What does all this mean?

1. Slightly unexpected maintenance of momentum means more likelihood of amplified patterns and our ridge getting traction.

2. This will be reinforced next week as the pacific jet engages. Not at all what I would expect from a Nina pattern to be honest - everything feels much more "active" than expected - but this works in our favour.

3. The same process, should it create the expected wave break into Xmas week, will reinforce the wave 2 trop forcing attack that Chio referenced.

4. Will this be sufficient to give us some serious strat vortex grief? I notice Amy Butler has touted for an SSW before the first 10 days of January are out. That would be the perfect impact of this process - though I must stick to my early season punt that it will need a third hit to do the job properly later in January. However regardless of whether we get a technical SSW we can expect a further strengthening of northern blocking and a jet stream heading south.

Extremely happy with all this. Let's see what tomorrow brings and whether the 18z churns out any eye candy.....

 

Im glad Amy agrees with my ssw forecast end of December start of Jan. Models are continuing to underestimate the tropics. It hadn't the first time. Its a striking feature of this winter. Why im not 100% yet but I have some ideas

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Posted
  • Location: Poland
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Winter
  • Location: Poland
1 minute ago, MATT☀️ said:

Temps have been below average for a while and quite cold at times.. Average temps do not float my boat one bit. I admire what the strat guys are saying but the 46 at this moment of time is not seeing it. The Long range anomalies are also not seeing it... That's not to say its gonna nail this pattern, but I'm beginning to think a major strat event is gonna be needed to throw the cat amongst the pigeons.. So to speak. 

I think he meant the above avg temps of the previous few seasons. 

Edited by STRiZZY
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

UKMO 144 my chart of the day 

DEF0F396-4E22-41E1-BF9E-1CF95B791E94.thumb.jpeg.309253b3fffcec5fe5901bbff28e03a9.jpeg

That Norwegian Sea high is in danger of getting cut off from the Russian high with the energy forcing south between the two. 
 

ECM and GFS broadly similar in the long wave pattern, it’s the way UKMO deals with the details to our north that’s interesting.

 

Probably be gone tomorrow, but shows what’s possible. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Im glad Amy agrees with my ssw forecast end of December start of Jan. Models are continuing to underestimate the tropics. It hadn't the first time. Its a striking feature of this winter. Why im not 100% yet but I have some ideas

That's a bit like saying Jurgen Klopp agrees with your interpretation of the Gegenpress......

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Just now, Catacol said:

That's a bit like saying Jurgen Klopp agrees with your interpretation of the Gegenpress......

Hahahaha completely agree! She is new level! Hence it gives me confidence i might be on the right lines! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T144, the red line is the invisible block as I understand things, let’s see what happens:

44EE3585-984C-44CF-A89D-A1D3FE6AD107.thumb.jpeg.aa67d025fd97f72374d4cc1ebcd141ca.jpeg

Look at how that low pressure is just filling in situ. Its a shame more energy isn't going South but there's still time for that because as catacol says there's still room for more amplification to be added to the system 

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