Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hang in there @northwestsnow!



All 51 members of the ECM 00z ensemble go for a very blocked outlook in the days leading up to xmas. Looks stonking to me!
 

Thanks mate..

Oh Gawd I hope they are right !

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks mate..

Oh Gawd I hope they are right !

It’s inconceivable that 51 runs are in one cluster days 10 to 15 ...... weather is too chaotic for that ....it simply means that there are either more than six clusters or that the spread is broadly around the single selected cluster but with a very wide envelope 

looks rather rinse and repeat to me with the Atlantic disrupting against the scrussian/sceuro block and the U.K. possibly ending up in the troughing .....I would be expecting the mean wind direction to be from the south and varying west to east of that depending where in the rinse we are at the time 

btw, I noticed talk on social media of a notable solar flare yesterday ejected in our direction ....... you won’t see that reflected in the nwp yet .......

[Paul_1978]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks mate..

Oh Gawd I hope they are right !

Me too. However like you NWS  there is some slight concern at the model output, although the longer term signals continue to appear to be positive. 

The biggest sticking point to me seems to be a chunk of the polar vortex setting up roost over Canada, and which seems to generate low after low for us. So the question for me is, what needs to happen for the vortex over Canada to do one, or the the low pressures from it being steered on a different trajectory when they are coming towards us?

Edited December 8, 2020 by Paul_1978

[daz_4]

Well obviously P30 has it right. I guess this would feel seasonal. 

[IDO]

Looking at the gefs at d5 and the UK120 chart is within the bounds of credibility but the ens are showing variance within that main cluster. Those variations mean by d7 there is even more spread on that route:

d5 gefs> d7 gefs>

I am not sure we can rely on the op run of any model as much as we normally would at d5. All dismantle the UK trough from the med lower heights, including UKMO, so the continued undercut will likely be an outlier solution post d5?

The ecm run keeps us with the auspices of the upper trough filling it with lows off the jet up to and no doubt beyond d10:

ecm d0-10> gem> 

The flow out of the trough is NE and that very slowly eases the Russian high back east. GEM makes more of the Pacific wave>wedge around d7 slowing the upstream flow and better height rises in our region, ecm less of an injection and gfs no pacific injection circa d7. 

Lots of entropy, and as others have said, a difficult call post-d5.

[Frosty.]

WOW what a tease / what a cliffhanger end to the Gfs 0z operational!...wouldn’t it be great to tap into that cold during late dec / early Jan?!  

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hang in there @northwestsnow!



All 51 members of the ECM 00z ensemble go for a very blocked outlook in the days leading up to xmas. Looks stonking to me!
 

We've had blocking for the past month and that only delivered a brief event for a minority. 

I think the blocking is going to be too far North to provide any benefit. 

[Weather vane]

Models very consistent out to 168h, with no sign of any proper cold here. It's getting close to saying your prayers time if you want Santa to deliver the goods, though, as always, FI teases us along...Maybe a split vortex will kick things our way. 

[terrier]

Some nice eye candy again from the gfs model. But again it’s always 10 days away. And the most concerning thing at the moment to me is that latest ec46 dayer update. It goes for milder southwesterlys as we move towards latter December. I guess we will have to see what it comes up with in the next update. But that is a worry if it’s cold your after. Because that update doesn’t make pleasant reading. 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We've had blocking for the past month and that only delivered a brief event for a minority. 

I think the blocking is going to be too far North to provide any benefit. 

Better to have a ticket to the lottery than not though! 

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest plume for De Bilt, Netherlands. No winter till 20th of december.

[southbank]

31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s inconceivable that 51 runs are in one cluster days 10 to 15 ...... weather is too chaotic for that ....it simply means that there are either more than six clusters or that the spread is broadly around the single selected cluster but with a very wide envelope 

looks rather rinse and repeat to me with the Atlantic disrupting against the scrussian/sceuro block and the U.K. possibly ending up in the troughing .....I would be expecting the mean wind direction to be from the south and varying west to east of that depending where in the rinse we are at the time 

btw, I noticed talk on social media of a notable solar flare yesterday ejected in our direction ....... you won’t see that reflected in the nwp yet .......

I haven’t been to concerned about short / medium term outlook on the models so long as back ground signal and trends showed a seasonal look at Xmas but this curve ball needs monitoring as I believe a few years back when another promising late December back ground signal was screwed by an active period of the Sun . If this happens again then in U.K. we are cursed

 

keeping the faith at the moment , hopefully trend remains I’m sick of heavy rain on Sw on the big day last 49 years we must be due so sort of luck ?

[jules216]

5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest plume for De Bilt, Netherlands. No winter till 20th of december.

Yes same looking plumes would be for Slovakia. Europe basically drained of any cold whatsoever. T850 for this time of the year about 5C above average until 23/12. Overall December 2020 likely to be even milder then 2019. Only first 3 days resembled winter. All the talk about front loaded winter is looking like a bogus assumption. A sense of dejavu now relying on shakey SSW in a WQBO,ramping up solar activity and ENSO that is quickly becoming central based as it weakens from the east so a very much like La Nina modoki going in to January.

[jonboy]

6 minutes ago, southbank said:

I haven’t been to concerned about short / medium term outlook on the models so long as back ground signal and trends showed a seasonal look at Xmas but this curve ball needs monitoring as I believe a few years back when another promising late December back ground signal was screwed by an active period of the Sun . If this happens again then in U.K. we are cursed

 

keeping the faith at the moment , hopefully trend remains I’m sick of heavy rain on Sw on the big day last 49 years we must be due so sort of luck ?

Any activity /solar flares are still minor. More akin to rolling over in bed before you wake up properly

[Updated_Weather]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Special special chart to end the 0z GFS

-20 uppers heading towards the UK, right in time for Christmas

That's 1 in 10-20 year level cold heading our way btw

Has the UK ever seen -20 uppers before? I don't think I have ever witnessed it since i've been born in 96!

[frosty ground]

38 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We've had blocking for the past month and that only delivered a brief event for a minority. 

I think the blocking is going to be too far North to provide any benefit. 

Why?

[Updated_Weather]

22 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest plume for De Bilt, Netherlands. No winter till 20th of december.

We don't mind waiting as long as it cakes it down with snow for Christmas!

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest plume for De Bilt, Netherlands. No winter till 20th of december.

There’s a handful of ENS there that do go very cold, keep an eyes on that on the next update as they could very well be onto something!! .
 

The middle EPS Custer is what we want, LP around Spain and the HP to our WSW being cut off and dissipating!!

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ali1977

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

WOW what a tease / what a cliffhanger end to the Gfs 0z operational!...wouldn’t it be great to tap into that cold during late dec / early Jan?!  

The best charts are always 10+ days away, appears to be the same scenario most years 

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

WOW what a tease / what a cliffhanger end to the Gfs 0z operational!...wouldn’t it be great to tap into that cold during late dec / early Jan?!  

@Scott Ingham mentioned yesterday WAA building through the country in a couple of weeks time. Is that what this chart is showing? (Genuine question. My model reading is not very advanced! )

[Eagle Eye]

Eastern Ridge not budging but one snap and 2010 could be a small snowstorm compared to this.

[dragan]

6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The best charts are always 10+ days away, appears to be the same scenario most years 

indeed, i’m not sure you would want what the very end of yesterday’s gfs (i think 0z) was showing.

I mean imagine trying to get up Queensway at Tesco penicuik!!

[Eagle Eye]

comes out of nowhere.

certainly looking interesting.

UK's cold certainly an anomaly in Europe, looking Good.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

It’s inconceivable that 51 runs are in one cluster days 10 to 15 ...... weather is too chaotic for that ....it simply means that there are either more than six clusters or that the spread is broadly around the single selected cluster but with a very wide envelope 

looks rather rinse and repeat to me with the Atlantic disrupting against the scrussian/sceuro block and the U.K. possibly ending up in the troughing .....I would be expecting the mean wind direction to be from the south and varying west to east of that depending where in the rinse we are at the time 

btw, I noticed talk on social media of a notable solar flare yesterday ejected in our direction ....... you won’t see that reflected in the nwp yet .......

Yep, quite a major earth bound solar flare. Possible impact tomorrow or Thursday. Not good news at all. Really bad timing and solar activity has increased quite markedly over the last 2 to 3 weeks. From past experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NWP move away from any potential end of December cold by this coming weekend. We will then be looking into Jan. Still early days of course but I'm getting that slippery slope kind of feeling. 

[Anthony Burden]

The Russian high about to have a little rest and allow the Atlantic to have it’s influence 

on us.The Question everybody is asking for how long and what happens next,let’s hope 

gfs fantasy island is picking up something very encouraging regarding pressure rise

and perfect orientation.