Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Anthony Burden]

Nick F .  Giving some very important information on this hopefully future cold spell.

A big game changer being this low pressure system due to affect us before Christmas 

as Nick stated need it to be a slack affair and track east into the continent bringing the

northerly down.After that all about the pressure rise.

[DanDorsetUK]

Gavsweathervids on YouTube are well worth a watch, he goes into alot of detail in his presentations. This one based on the EC 30 day extended forecast is really worth a watch especially towards the end for those who would like more explanation of what its showing and his take on it. Shows why many were excited by it for those learning.

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Considering we’re in quite an Atlantic dominated setup, quite nice with some pretty decent sunny spells at the moment. Some patches of cloud about too. Even though weather from the Atlantic can bring a lot of wet weather, especially over North-Western UK, a setup like today is one of those that offers something brighter with a few showers, especially towards the North-West and West:

 

Eastern and South-Eastern areas likely to stay dry, perhaps with the odd shower, with some good spells of sunshine at times

Tomorrow though will see a different picture. An angry Low will sweep North-North-Eastwards up from the South-West through Western UK. Will bring strong Southerly to South-Westerly winds, most especially over Ireland, and heavy rain with it. Heaviest of the rain over Western, Northern and Central areas. 

 

Some strong gusts of wind towards Southern Ireland transferring North towards the Western coasts of Scotland. Blustery everywhere else. The ferocious gusts tending to subside towards Wednesday night. Would think carefully about going for a walk up a Western UK hill. Could lose your hat

 

Thursday looks to then to revert back to similar conditions of today. A little bit of a surface ridge moving over the UK. Highest of pressure towards Southern UK with the best of the sunniest and driest conditions over Eastern and South-Eastern areas. A few showers likely towards Western and North-Western areas where it could be a bit windy. Some cloudier and rainy conditions likely to spill into Ireland throughout the day as a disturbance to the West of Ireland creeps closer to the UK.

Friday could then be another rainy and windy day with some heavy rain moving into Western areas from the South-West:

 

Although still quite far away, there is a possibility to see some chillier conditions develop from the North-West or North towards Christmas. Something that a number on here would welcome.

Edited December 15, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[TSNWK]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hasn’t it always realistically been destined to be that way? Going by EPS the trend is quite the opposite of that last 3 runs from old to new.
 

 

thank you. Illsustrates the gut feels I was developing sadly... 

[Purga]

Yes please Santa!

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

thank you. Illsustrates the gut feels I was developing sadly... 

It looks a more robust high though, with ridging into S. Greenland on the latest chart.

 

The earlier two look more like topplers to me.

[Frosty.]

A quick look at the BIG DAY...the GEFS 6z indicates there’s a chance some of us might see a white Christmas, there are some wintry looking members for sure!...fingers crossed netweather coldies get some much deserved luck this festive season and indeed Jan / Feb too...   

[That ECM]

Not a great update from the met before the 12z come out.? let’s keep the toys in the pram

 

something like this before the Atlantic comes back in?  Crumb of comfort is still low confidence.

Edited December 15, 2020 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Not a great update from the met before the 12z come out.? let’s keep the toys in the pram

 

something like this before the Atlantic comes back in? 

I think its decent ...

They are going with frost and fog over Christmas with HP to our west ?

 

 

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It looks a more robust high though, with ridging into S. Greenland on the latest chart.

 

The earlier two look more like topplers to me.

Yep it does! I guess it is just great that at present we are looking at variations of a theme - Will our Christmas Atlantic high ( if it forms )  topple into Blandness, will it migrate to Scandi or if its asking head up Greenie - Tune in from 4:00 PM this afternoon for season 10 episode 2 "virtual into reality the great unsolvable"

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I think its decent ...

They are going with frost and fog over Christmas with HP to our west ?

 

 

It was more in reference to where the high may go.

[terrier]

Well I’m really struggling here to get excited over the model output. The gfs is showing a toppler for Xmas cold and frosty so yes seasonal. Snow for some in Scotland. But apart from that it’s nothing to get excited about. And the latest met updates have now removed the s word in both updates. They state low confidence but expect milder and unsettled to move in after Xmas. So we have a toppler for Xmas and that’s it nothing really. Just shows how desperate we have become in the U.K. I’m not surprised mr murr hasn’t returned. 

[lamppost watcher]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Nick..

Lots for the pros to watch!

Certainly a festive Christmas would be welcomed by many of us here.

Fingers crossed.

Please does anyone have the odds for a white Christmas to hand? Certainly Glasgow Aberdeen are in the game...

I got 8-1 last week for Cardiff. Chucked a fiver on it even though the odds should be more like 50-1 as I don't remember it ever snowing here on the actual day

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well I’m really struggling here to get excited over the model output. The gfs is showing a toppler for Xmas cold and frosty so yes seasonal. Snow for some in Scotland. But apart from that it’s nothing to get excited about. And the latest met updates have now removed the s word in both updates. They state low confidence but expect milder and unsettled to move in after Xmas. So we have a toppler for Xmas and that’s it nothing really. Just shows how desperate we have become in the U.K. I’m not surprised mr murr hasn’t returned. 

This is a very optimistic post for you @terrier

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well I’m really struggling here to get excited over the model output. The gfs is showing a toppler for Xmas cold and frosty so yes seasonal. Snow for some in Scotland. But apart from that it’s nothing to get excited about. And the latest met updates have now removed the s word in both updates. They state low confidence but expect milder and unsettled to move in after Xmas. So we have a toppler for Xmas and that’s it nothing really. Just shows how desperate we have become in the U.K. I’m not surprised mr murr hasn’t returned. 

Sadly the bar is indeed very low from my own perspective.

So I agree with you in that regard.

I don't agree about Christmas though, in a warming climate even seasonal Christmas's are rare so a foggy frosty Christmas would be great .

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well I’m really struggling here to get excited over the model output. The gfs is showing a toppler for Xmas cold and frosty so yes seasonal. Snow for some in Scotland. But apart from that it’s nothing to get excited about. And the latest met updates have now removed the s word in both updates. They state low confidence but expect milder and unsettled to move in after Xmas. So we have a toppler for Xmas and that’s it nothing really. Just shows how desperate we have become in the U.K. I’m not surprised mr murr hasn’t returned. 

Agreed we are desperate, nothing wrong with that.  All good fun so long as you don't take it all too seriously and just go along with the chase and the falls...:) Nothing we can do about the outcome reality and but we can still maintain a positive mindset when the models want to play I say:)

Edited December 15, 2020 by TSNWK

[Vikos]

I wouldn't be too persemistic, the major models are somehow disassembling the PV into pieces, outcome unknown (by now), but I except a longer period of cold over ME, if the PV splits, and on top, the coldest days are yet to come in Jan and Feb.

 

This xmas cold could be just a cold fart, before (...) goes down, metaphorically

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Vikos

[Iceaxecrampon]

10 Days...!

it's  miles off yet and more than enough time for the usual festive disappointments - Yes how desperate we have become that we will gladly settle for a  decent frost - I'll take that any day at my meagre altitude on the Fylde tundra  - I just hope the Atlantic blocking holds out and everything else will be a festive foggy frosty bonus.

[Iceaxecrampon]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agreed we are desperate, nothing wrong with that.  All good fun so long as you don't take it all too seriously and just go along with the chase and the falls...:) Nothing we can do about the outcome reality and but we can still maintain a positive mindset when the models want to play I say:)

The Weather will do Whatever the Weather.

[BARRY]

4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

The Weather will do Whatever the Weather.

What ever happens the interest is still there, will still be looking at the models in 12 months time.

 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agreed we are desperate, nothing wrong with that.  All good fun so long as you don't take it all too seriously and just go along with the chase and the falls...:) Nothing we can do about the outcome reality and but we can still maintain a positive mindset when the models want to play I say:)

Great points. We are all passionate about the weather and particular weather types. However, it is important what you said in your post. Its important not to take it too seriously and that goes for most things in life - not good for the stress levels. I used to be really angsty about it but now I am much more light hearted about it. Expect the worst, hope for the best and if the worst happens, there are far more important things in life - family, friends, health and peace. Sorry for being off topic but I think it is an important point . 

[Skullzrulerz]

41 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not a great update from the met before the 12z come out.? let’s keep the toys in the pram

Are you referring to the UKMO? I thought that wasn't out till 3.30pm?

[frosty ground]

31 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well I’m really struggling here to get excited over the model output. The gfs is showing a toppler for Xmas cold and frosty so yes seasonal. Snow for some in Scotland. But apart from that it’s nothing to get excited about. And the latest met updates have now removed the s word in both updates. They state low confidence but expect milder and unsettled to move in after Xmas. So we have a toppler for Xmas and that’s it nothing really. Just shows how desperate we have become in the U.K. I’m not surprised mr murr hasn’t returned. 

Anything model related?

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Are you referring to the UKMO? I thought that wasn't out till 3.30pm?

nope the met office written update - and yes the ukmo is out around 3.30pm

[Day 10]

I know it's only the ICON but it doesn't look too bad to me, could those heights in the Atlantic become cut off to force the jet south or is it going to flatten? Another low coming off the eastern seaboard putter pressure right in the middle of it.