Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Daniel*]

It's not perfect but not quite seeing fuss with 18z it wouldn't take much to entertain widespread snow potential it's better hemispherically than 12z.

Trop vortex just dissolves away...

Edited December 14, 2020 by Daniel*

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

My big concern with this run is we get a limpet upper trough over the UK and all the cold air slides to our west and we end up with just a passing blow as it all filters SE.

Yep I think it's down to where the small us low, phased, with our trough, I knew it would not be quite right. That needs to be further south. Although I think the strength of the northeaster that help the high build, sent thing to far west.

[bluearmy]

Whilst many won’t be happy with the evolution of that run days 9/13, it’s entirely within the ens envelope 

[Vikos]

I like this a lot.... frontal zone pushed to the south, almost reaching Africa

[Mike Poole]

We shouldn’t be making the perfect the enemy of the good with this run, there is plenty of time for this to get better (or of course worse) in the medium range, but one thing is clear the Atlantic amplification is now more or less nailed on for 10 days time or so - what form it takes and who gets lucky with snow etc. - well that is a long way from sorted.  

[ALL ABOARD]

Scandi high incoming.. 

If the vortex sets up there as others have alluded too I can't see it returning to Greenland any time soon. 

 

Another positive day in the hunt for cold gains traction. 

[Tim Bland]

It does feel like we are starting to get to a ‘all roads lead to cold’ situation as the models play with different evolutions that all lead to cold! 
 

who needs a SSW with a PV like this in December?!

Edited December 14, 2020 by Tim Bland

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst many won’t be happy with the evolution of that run days 9/13, it’s entirely within the ens envelope 

Its not the worst evolution though it definitely isn't as good as you'd expect at say 168hrs thanks to that lobe swinging through E.Canada between day 8-10. I don't think it will particularly stand out on the ensembles either, though there will be some runs that go far better I'm sure.

Still as long as we maintain some amplification out there we still stand a chance down the line. 

[chionomaniac]

The last time I really remember that the destination was cold, but the path there was not sorted yet, was 2010.  Every run ended up very cold or close to it. Here’s hoping for a repeat

[Tim Bland]

Cold east Vs cold West...who will win? Who cares ️

Edited December 14, 2020 by Tim Bland

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

The last time I really remember that the destination was cold, but the path there was not sorted yet, was 2010.  Every run ended up very cold or close to it. Here’s hoping for a repeat

Indeed.

Let's get that ridge into play and see if MJO etc can give us a lift.....

[Daniel*]

Best eye candy I've seen so far pity it is a million miles away..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Another great run, different variation but it’s cold and getting colder....another day ticked off.  Hopefully will say the same come the weekend.  That’s some end to the 18z

BFTE

BFTP

Edited December 14, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Tim Bland]

X rated ending!! Odds on Steve Murr coming back before the end of the week just shortened!

Edited December 14, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Excellent update from EC46. Europe cold after Christmas.

Got to be careful with anomaly charts....but nevertheless that’s a pretty good update and a bit unexpected to be honest into January. Food for thought. 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I doubt they’re head scratching too much ...they will trust glosea over the 46 imo although week 3 could be up for grabs in general ..

Glosea is a 3 month smoothed average. About as much use as goretex in the Sahara. It annoys me that the MetO keep the single month snapshots out of reach. How much of their operation is public funded?

[Panayiotis]

Different evolution to the 12z but we get the same result in the end- a pressure rise to the NE with winds off the continent. We dont see the toppling high over the Atlantic (like the 12z) ; more of a retreating one back to where it usually is (Azores). If you saw the first chart you wouldn’t be too impressed and one would think it’s a long way off cold but the flow buckles, with WAA to our north then moving heights over Scandinavia. As per my last post, it’s game on if we get energy underneath and the 18z did exactly that! 

One thing which has emerged from today is the theme to build heights to the NE and for us to be in a continental feed post Christmas time. I see it as quite bullish that the GFS wants to build pressure to the NE through different evolutions. It doesn’t know how we get the heights over Scandi but it’s signalling to us that pressure is likely to rise in that area after Christmas. 

[pureasthedriven]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold east Vs cold West...who will win? Who cares ️

Knowing our luck, we’ll probably end up with a southerly through the middle

[Mike Poole]

What is going on with the world?  I don’t know - a lot is wrong at the moment, and last Friday I said I was on the verge of calling time on this winter.  That was premature.  The pub run dishing this up at T384 is great, that would be a substantial meal:

Part of my toy throwing was the GloSea5 output, but I think things are now moving quickly and might establish some hard to move systems in the northern hemisphere, think GloSea5 is yesterdays news.  GFS at T240:

:

Frigid air Siberia now, presumably as being home to the vortex for a while now, fancy shifting it?  Fancy moving it a long way west to the UK? There remains so much of interest for winter 2020/2021.  Even if I haven’t seen a snowflake yet!!!

 

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

What I have learnt EC46 is crap I’ve stopped paying attention to it, back in November it was going for a super blocked first half to December and not really diminishing though December. It seems to love opposing extremes. Mild or cold take your pick.

[Catacol]

I’m a bit late to the party tonight, and while it is quite far out at day 9 I really like this chart.

Deep low nudging into the North Pacific, signs again of our Ural High, and a definite ridge driving up towards Greenland. There has been a consistent signal for this at around 22/23 Dec 

= strong pacific jet streak as momentum increases are felt. The timing here is pretty good. The Atlantic is already predisposed to potential blocking and along comes jet surge to reinforce high lat wave breaking. Bear in mind also what is happening in the strat - stronger than modelled hits on the vortex causing it not insignificant upset.

Game on. We didn’t get a break in time for 20th Dec but this is a happy path ahead....to see a move towards the same kind of solution so quickly after that missed opportunity. Not common in recent years as Chio has suggested. And looking at current strat forecasts for the extent of warming I’m starting to wonder if my 23rd January SSW guesstimate is a bit conservative. Might well come earlier....putting any cold impacts we might get (with a very large dose of finger crossing) into the true heart of our winter.

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Once again plenty of encouragement from the ensembles,so many wanting to push Heights further N/NW towards Greenland and Iceland, a fair amount of energy coming from the Western side of Greenland could erode Heights but thats just one possibility of many! In all honesty I'm very impressed with this output and it seems the outlook for once is at least offering some nice prizes..we have a ticket for the draw...1st place will be a jackpot outcome,but I reckon 2nd,3rd and 4th will be offering a decent payout also.

Edited December 14, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[Mucka]

 So the Op shows Beast from the East for New Year?

That provides a nice link into developments in GFS 18z FI mean which is interesting as it really strengthens the Siberian high and extends an E Russian ridge which could mean it is ready to influence Western European weather end Dec,  January.

EDIT

I should have said it was a bit of a ramp post in advance and the timing is probably over optimistic but it looks like we are setting up for something from the East first half of Jan should the output continue on this track.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Mucka

[Snowman.]

Some insane ensembles in there.. a lot of blocking and lots of different options.

MEAN

18z  vs 12z 

[Daniel*]

Maybe some growing E/NE hints it is very plausible you would bet it not to last though.