Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[bluearmy]

Ec 46 - best to use weeks 3 and 4 ......don’t take too much notice of weeks five and six unless they vary from climatology and begin to show some consistency in this respect 

[claret047]

33 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Yes the ECM monthlies are beautiful, quite surprised to see the blocking signal extending well into January.

Hello there. Thanks for posting the charts. What do the browns and blues indicate please?

Many thanks 

Kind Regards

Dave

[Mike Poole]

ICON T120, looks more amplified upstream than the 12z at same time, 18z first:

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 46 - best to use weeks 3 and 4 ......don’t take too much notice of weeks five and six unless they vary from climatology and begin to show some consistency in this respect 

In contrast to Glosea ,seemingly...

Exeter head scratching ...

[Frosty.]

I mentioned earlier that I really liked the ECM 0z op / mean trend longer term...and, I think I like the 12z even more!..and it’s not just the ECM showing a colder festive period!...much more of this and I will truly believe that at least some of us could be seeing snow, ice & frosts which would make this Christmas feel extra special, especially considering what an awful year it’s been and continues to be for many in the u k and around the world!

[bluearmy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

In contrast to Glosea ,seemingly...

Exeter head scratching ...

I doubt they’re head scratching too much ...they will trust glosea over the 46 imo although week 3 could be up for grabs in general ..

[Matt H]

8 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hello there. Thanks for posting the charts. What do the browns and blues indicate please?

Many thanks 

Kind Regards

Dave

Hi Dave, the brown/red indicates high pressure (I’m colour blind so can’t tell exactly) and the blue indicates low pressure.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I doubt they’re head scratching too much ...they will trust glosea over the 46 imo although week 3 could be up for grabs in general ..

Absolutely , which begs the question as to the validity of EC 46...more especially in winter perhaps.

Anyway, Glosea intent on sending and Mid Atlantic high packing into Europe for a few months,basically.

We will see.

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I doubt they’re head scratching too much ...they will trust glosea over the 46 imo although week 3 could be up for grabs in general ..

“Confidence is extremely low” sounds like a lot of head scratching to me. Think they have seen the heights for awhile. It’s where they go is the question.

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes @Jon Snow and wouldn't it be ironic to have a cold spell in the heart of winter esp over the holidays where it would be more enjoyable for the family and kids to get out and enjoy,we deserve this and like you say after a really crap year everyone would take full advantage of it,well if you are of a cold persuasion...

but lets get there first

18z starting to roll out now so it's...

...time

 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

“Confidence is extremely low” sounds like a lot of head scratching to me. Think they have seen the heights for awhile. It’s where they go is the question.

 

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here you go Mike...

 

You can see this uncertainty in the ECM 12z clusters beyond T264.  One set (about half) strengthens the blocking the other dissipates.  Where’s your money?  Really difficult as it is all or nothing re the longer term, either it gets a real hold in which case the block could be a major player, or it just collapses.

[Big Dave]

2 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Not bad at all.  -7 and -8 uppers into Scotland on Christmas Eve with colder to follow given the likely evolution.  

Still lots of water to pass under this particular bridge, but steady as she goes.

D’Oh! 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

You can see this uncertainty in the ECM 12z clusters beyond T264.  One set (about half) strengthens the blocking the other dissipates.  Where’s your money?  Really difficult as it is all or nothing re the longer term, either it gets a real hold in which case the block could be a major player, or it just collapses.

Personally Mike i don't see much wrong with those anomalies(correct me if i am wrong),of course they are broad-brush just like any other anomalies that get posted but as long as we get those -ve height's into mainland Europe with +ve height's to the NW/N or NE we are in a good position

we can take all positives from todays outputs but there will be toing and throwing in the coming days yet regarding these.

[matty40s]

9 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

D’Oh! 

I think that's what they call an IMBY no snow post..Dave

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Personally Mike i don't see much wrong with those anomalies(correct me if i am wrong),of course they are broad-brush just like any other anomalies that get posted but as long as we get those -ve height's into mainland Europe with +ve height's to the NW/N or NE we are in a good position

we can take all positives from todays outputs but there will be toing and throwing in the coming days yet regarding these.

No nothing wrong at all, just highlighting the uncertainty, which will need to be resolved closer to the time.  All good this evening as far as I am concerned.  

[Allseasons-Si]

Whilst we all are focusing on the big day,Ireland could be hit by a nasty little low

and that ESB winter storm looks nasty

this is our friend or foe in how it traverses over in the Atlantic.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I doubt they’re head scratching too much ...they will trust glosea over the 46 imo although week 3 could be up for grabs in general ..

After further inspection of tonight's 46 its not all one way street...The Ecm 46 mean is keen to reduce Heights and increase Heights around Iberia towards months end..And thus as been showing for a fair few runs now..Would most likely tie in with the met update.. The control run is much more robust with Heights towards the NW though and we do have colder members amongst the 50ensembles..But worth noting there are also a fair few milder runs.Another reason to believe we have a wide range of options moving into the New Year...but the mean remains stubborn with its less colder outlook and can't be discarded...so perhaps its best we keep our feet firmly on the ground and not get to excited just yet.

[chionomaniac]

I like the 18Z already. Better heights to the west of Greenland and stronger block to the east

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

After further inspection of tonight's 46 its not all one way street...The Ecm 46 mean is keen to reduce Heights and increase Heights around Iberia towards months end..And thus as been showing for a fair few runs now..Would most likely tie in with the met update.. The control run is much more robust with Heights towards the NW though and we do have colder members amongst the 50ensembles..But worth noting there are also a fair few milder runs.Another reason to believe we have a wide range of options moving into the New Year...but the mean remains stubborn with its less colder outlook and can't be discarded...so perhaps its best we keep our feet firmly on the ground and not get to excited just yet.

The ec46 clusters look like euro trough weeks 3 and 4 trending e Europe but no strong indication of an upper mid Atlantic ridge on those groups 

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

those ec46 charts flip-flip all the time and  arent worth taking much notice o

Agreed...they were pretty poor for February 2019, eye candy but that's about it.

[BARRY]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I like the 18Z already. Better heights to the west of Greenland and stronger block to the east

getting better as it rolls out

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

and that ESB winter storm looks nasty

this is our friend or foe in how it traverses over in the Atlantic.

 

The one you mention is a separate system from the nor’easter it’s actually not that deep of a low pressure at that stage so it’s a bit hard to see at first  

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T168:

Just about to go straight up in the Atlantic now i think, decent run this.  

[chionomaniac]

Keep an eye on the eastern sb USA troughing.. 

[chionomaniac]

Don’t want to call this run yet but I guess you may know what I am thinking. Big progress