Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The one you mention is a separate system from the nor’easter it’s actually not that deep of a low pressure at that stage so it’s a bit hard to see at first  

Doh!,it's the one behind that we need to watch,the nor'easter is the one that looks like a bowling ball to the west of us at 102.

 

 

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T168:

Just about to go straight up in the Atlantic now i think, decent run this.  

I'm not so happy to be honest, that low has phased and will not go SE, I know it seems to look like that's ok, but I'm really not so sure. 

[chionomaniac]

...and the Atlantic amplification is coming.....

 

 

[Weathizard]

Low is stronger coming out the ESB but this could be a good thing for our ridge coming up, I’m not sure what some are referring too as we know the amplification starts day8+ 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Don’t want to call this run yet but I guess you may know what I am thinking. Big progress

Yes Ed,more amplified off the ESB 192>

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

...and the Atlantic amplification is coming.....

 

 

Yes, look at the WAA there at T210:

[Vikos]

    12z--->

 

I like this1050 greenland high...

Edited December 14, 2020 by Vikos

[chionomaniac]

Lol. I haven’t looked at the conditions over the Uk yet. This run  should  give us a decent Atlantic block - but what I want to see is it head into Greenland. Possible

[Weathizard]

Beautifully aligned WAA on show, I think FI could be nice here.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. I haven’t looked at the conditions over the Uk yet. This run  should  give us a decent Atlantic block - but what I want to see is it head into Greenland. Possible

More or less strait vertical WAA up the west side of Greenland,good run this Ed.

just to add...

look at the trop pv and NH profile,...stunning.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[chionomaniac]

Looks like a perfect trough negative tilt trough over N A by day 10. If this doesn’t build a GH nothing will

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Looks like a perfect trough negative tilt trough over N A by day 10. If this doesn’t build a GH nothing will

My big concern with this run is we get a limpet upper trough over the UK and all the cold air slides to our west and we end up with just a passing blow as it all filters SE.

[chionomaniac]

Only real issue is too west based, but with the penchant for shifting things east not too concerned yet

[Skullzrulerz]

The Pub run is certainly a great one but alas it won't be this morning

[chionomaniac]

Just now, kold weather said:

My big concern with this run is we get a limpet upper trough over the UK and all the cold air slides to our west and we end up with just a passing blow as it all filters SE.

Yep. Just said that. Don’t want a too west positioned -NAO

[bluearmy]

An enormous arctic high on this run ...... and not just the remnants of the meandering upper ridge 

 

[Matt H]

Deleted.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yep. Just said that. Don’t want a too west positioned -NAO

It would be pretty typical if all the features look good and we end up with it all going just a touch too far west.

With that being said we are still going to get some cold from this run, it would take a mighty poor set of circumstances from 240hrs to not get some cold down!

No doubt the GFS will find a way however!

Edited December 14, 2020 by kold weather

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    12z--->

 

I like this1050 greenland high...

No that's not a Greenland high that's simply a 'surface high' result of dense cold air building over Greenland ice shelf you need to see yellows. We haven't had a true Greenland high in winter months for a very long time... 10 years in fact, they're extremely rare in 2018 we had retrogression of block to Greenland but it only lasted a day or so before shifting too west. A proper Greenland high can last for weeks.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Daniel*

[chionomaniac]

Hi don’t think we need to look any further on this run. Good early changes. The ensembles will nudge slightly better I reckon

[Vikos]

 

This massive cold block with -40°C

meanwhile springtime over canada

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Looks like a perfect trough negative tilt trough over N A by day 10. If this doesn’t build a GH nothing will

You said it! - it just seems we are so badly out of luck this last decade!!!

 

EDIT : i didn't think anything could beat the naughties for crapness - but it has, barring a few fleeting glorious moments

Edited December 14, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You said it! - it just seems we are so badly out of luck this last decade!!!

Haha well as I said, the GFS will find a way to mess up on this run, basically takes the only route possible to not get decent cold down.

However as others have said thats WAY too far to take even remotely serious and short term trends have improved today. Its going to be interesting to see if that is reflected through the ensembles and the 00z suite of runs.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

 

This massive cold block with -40°C

meanwhile springtime over canada

Yes, that is quite a departure from normal at this time of year.  it might take some shifting too, cold air being really dense...I hadn’t realised the vortex over there had got quite so entrenched.  Obviously is GFS forecast of course.  

Edited December 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

I wouldn't worry about the micro bits in fl just yet, lets get this ridge into play first as the macro details are within the same theme.