Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Ali1977]

This latest run is looking very good at 192, there looks to be a much bigger ridge forming compared to the 18z. Top image is the new run

[Ali1977]

Xmas day morning, lovely. Pretty much cold enough for everyone to have frost and most showers would be wintery!! ️

[Mucka]

 

That is certainly a nice Christmas day chart.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Mucka

[STRiZZY]

The cold trend continues with the 0z 

[Mucka]

10 minutes ago, STRiZZY said:

The cold trend continues with the 0z 

It does on the Op but plenty of variation within the ensembles which suggests Christmas day cold is far from a lock in yet.

Always a worry when the scatter increases instead of firming up but within that scatter there are still some good outcomes, just more convoluted, along with the flatter mobile Westerly types.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Mucka

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

IT does on the Op but plenty of variation within the ensembles which suggests Christmas day cold is far from a lock in.

Some interesting charts now showing. But as you say, it’s far from being nailed. 10 days is an eternity in terms of modelling!

[Mucka]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Some interesting charts now showing. But as you say, it’s far from being nailed. 10 days is an eternity in terms of modelling!

Yes it is and I'm sure the graph will show a higher mean temp for Christmas day than previous runs but just a footnote for now.

This will be an outlier but if something like this comes from a failed Northerly then I won't mind. 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Mucka

[Decemberof2010]

As Mucka says quite a mixture in the ensembles, but I did find some that must be a sign, as it’s Christmas. 
We have 

Gold 

 

Frankenstein

And Murr

Edited December 15, 2020 by Decemberof2010

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

As Mucka says quite a mixture in the ensembles, but I did find some that must be a sign, as it’s Christmas. 
We have 

Gold 

 

Frankenstein

And Murr

Post of the year 2020, should be pinned! 

[Fingers]

Bank!!!! If only. Verification stats for GFS at day 10, bang on I reckon...100%!!

Trend is good for something a little tasty around the Christmas period. Social distancing snow ball fight and snowmen making!!

[That ECM]

T144 all 3. Enough difference here to say beyond is JFF.

[Daniel*]

Poor ECM this morning I detect a bit of a wobble.

[Vikos]

Daaaaang son, that's close to a split...

However, that PV doesn't look healthy at all, we will see a lot of swinging in the models, soon....

 

[That ECM]

Let’s see where ECM sits. This on Christmas Day would be of interest for more than a few.

[Daniel*]

I think this would go onto developing a Scandi high but not a fan of this run. Interestingly there’s another burst of more substantial Atlantic amplification following in. 

[sheikhy]

Gfs and ukmo same at 144 hours!!ecm the odd one out with a slightly more round bowling ball low to the south west of the uk!!get that more elongated like the gfs/ukmo and bingo i dont think there will be a doubt but until then hold off!!funny it was gfs blowing it up yesterday and ecm looking like the gfs 00z of this morning but now its the other way around!!never clear cut always the hard route to cold here!!

[TSNWK]

Ummmm theme this morning on gfs and ecm in that both maintain a cold Christmas Day. However beyond that we seem to have backed away a tad from extending the cold, heights to north still there but look more prone to topple as pressure applied from vortex creeping into view to our north west.

[mountain shadow]

If the ECM is closer to being correct with the failed and flatter ridge towards Greenland before Christmas,  then this would be yet another abject failure of the models, particularly the GFS to accurately model the energy leaving the US Eastern seaboard.

This is why I'm a jam tomorrow guy.

The ECM could be wrong of course, but once the downgrades start there's usually no way back.

As a positive,  Christmas looks seasonal with the chance of flurries of snow in the North over hills and mountains. 

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

If the ECM is closer to being correct with the failed and flatter ridge towards Greenland before Christmas,  then this would be yet another abject failure of the models, particularly the GFS to accurately model the energy leaving the US Eastern seaboard.

This is why I'm a jam tomorrow guy.

The ECM could be wrong of course, but once the downgrades start there's usually no way back.

As a positive,  Christmas looks seasonal with the chance of flurries of snow in the North over hills and mountains. 

A failure  in modelling at day 10?

 

 

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

A failure  in modelling at day 10?

 

 

Sure, if it's ok to post about magical ops, controls, ensembles and means as has happened on here over the few days, then its surely ok to discuss when they fail?

Caveat that of course the ECM op may be wrong and I hope it is.

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Sure, if it's ok to post about magical ops, controls, ensembles and means as has happened on here over the few days, then its surely ok to discuss when they fail?

Caveat that of course the ECM op may be wrong and I hope it is.

Not exactly when people post day 10 plus charts the usual carvers always apply no one says they are dead certs  the ensembles from all suits clearly showed this as a possible outcome so I don’t know how it can be a failure.

The midrange models picked up on a northerly around Xmas that may deliver a longer spell of cold weather and that’s still the case o would say that’s a success should a northerly happen on Xmas day.

[Duane S.]

Very few cold spells get to T+0 without major modelling dramas along the way. Clearly this will be no exception (and that’s assuming there will even be a cold spell at the end of course!).

As unscientific as it may seem, when so many Op runs churn out cold ,via relatively different routes, plus the ens are largely on board, it means we are in with a decent shout. I don’t see a memorable wintery nirvana emerging after Christmas Day but I do see a decent cold spell commencing at just the right time, with lots of potential thereafter.

Not much love for the ECM this morning, well it’s no Cobra meeting inducing filth fest for sure, but it appears to be very much along the same lines of recent output variations, and I quite like where it’s going (insert day 10 caveat), a very decent easterly could follow this.

 

[bluearmy]

Don’t count on any mid Atlantic ridge at day 9/10 .... still very fluid how this pans out - also note the axis on the spread is northeast - so that’s a flattened ridge with the spread due to low heights  or an extension of the ridge ne with the spread due to high heights relative to the mean  

[mb018538]

ECM Op was a bit aggressive with the low this morning. Longer range clusters are a bit of a mess too.







 

[mbrothers]

32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Sure, if it's ok to post about magical ops, controls, ensembles and means as has happened on here over the few days, then its surely ok to discuss when they fail?

Caveat that of course the ECM op may be wrong and I hope it is.

But at 10 days ahead they haven’t failed