Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

But then looks pretty good at 144 hours!!inbetween gfs and ukmo!!

It didn't look bad to start with mate. Ease up on the mulled wine 

[Mike Poole]

All good ECM T168

This looks like it will bring the whole trop vortex down in our direction. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Weathizard]

Just the small differences at 168

[Kasim Awan]

ECM again making too much of the low south Greenland / Iceland area. Result is a milder northerly.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Just the small differences at 168

Don’t look at it on Europe view, the area of interest isn’t within the plot!!

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Don’t look at it on Europe view, the area of interest isn’t within the plot!!

Indeed, the good thing about the ECM is the low heights to our south are better than the GFS though, probably a safer route to cold than the GFS which at one point did look a bit dicey.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Here comes the all important post day 6 output .

Start hiding behind the sofa !  The important bit is what happens between the UK high and the one exiting Canada .

A clean retrogression or will some shortwave energy pop up there .

It's a clean one Nick

looks good at 168.

[Ice Day]

Looking good to my eyes at 168, PV getting shunted our way with WAA heading towards Greenland. It may go pear shaped but I'm confident 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Ice Day

[ITSY]

Wow, only missed the 67 messages. 

Meanwhile ECM looks good to me at 192. Not sure what more we could want at that range tbh! 

 

Edit: could possibly do with the PV dropping more SEward rather than Sward in order to bring in colder uppers but, heyho, variation on a theme. That's all that matters for now!

Edited December 18, 2020 by ITSY

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well you would back the Ecm at t144 over the gfs & ukmo. So it seems like a few who have been banging the drum to remain grounded over this cold snap could well be correct. But Xmas if the Ecm is correct this evening isn’t looking overly cold. 

Christmas has been looking cold and dry for days now & it is the period after that looks interesting. ECM still looks good to deliver in the last frames ...

[Allseasons-Si]

Here she comes...

192

the trop pv i meant 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Vikos]

Looks good for me *searching cover*

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

Must be great to know what IS going to happen. You should let us know some time.

I'm not saying it's terrible; just saying it isn't as fugitive as the gfs for intense cold. As it happens the less amplified solution the ecm is showing us now is slightly more strongly supported in the ens.

[KTtom]

Hmm fine margins...too far west for my liking

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by KTtom

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well you would back the Ecm at t144 over the gfs & ukmo. So it seems like a few who have been banging the drum to remain grounded over this cold snap could well be correct. But Xmas if the Ecm is correct this evening isn’t looking overly cold. 

Yes, terrible chart....  

[radiohead]

GFS and ECM actually broadly similar at T192. Good to see at that extended range.

 

[Duane S.]

Down it drops, gap opens up. Looks absolutely fine and on target.

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM again making too much of the low south Greenland / Iceland area. Result is a milder northerly.

Well maybe you’re talking about after cold snap. But ECM is coldest convincingly.. for Xmas day tiny blob of -8C uppers and pressure not particularly high, so widespread technical white Christmas potential. Only takes one flake! 

[nick sussex]

We need more se movement not southerly from the low over Greenland .

Any low needs to get se of the UK . 

[Kentspur]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM again making too much of the low south Greenland / Iceland area. Result is a milder northerly.

No mild air on that to me

[Ice Day]

ECM v GFS at 192.  I would say that's a pretty good match...... game on.

  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Down it drops, gap opens up. Looks absolutely fine and on target.

reminds me a bit of 14th Jan 2013, and 4th Dec 2020, snowy for some, but here none

 

[Tim Bland]

Looking good...here comes the PV chunk...

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

No mild air on that to me

You're missing the point. The ECM 12Z was due to fail the northerly from 144h 

Low is too big > longer atlantic sea run > uppers get moderated.

This is why I remain on the fence regarding the gfs doomsday output 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Duane S.]

Still looking fine. Maybe will have to endure some wetness as it drops a little too much to the west, but surely only heading one way thereafter

Edited December 18, 2020 by s4lancia