Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Kentspur]

Uppers a little colder around much of Wales, Eastern, Central and Southern England on 24/12 18z compared to 12z

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kentspur

[ALL ABOARD]

By 144 we should be good to go 

[Mike Poole]

No probs with amplification on the GFS 18z, here T120 compared to T126 on 12z.  

But the low exiting the USA is stronger, may actually make the end result a stronger block?  

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

By 144 we should be good to go 

Chooo choo. 

Low out the way. Let the highs commence

[Daniel*]

GFS 18z with more southerly tracking low on 23rd compared to 12z, tiny with bite approaching SW don’t think it would change anything though.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Daniel*

[sheikhy]

Up she goes at 156 hours?!!!

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T150, sorry about the rubbish drawing:

[tight isobar]

If anyone wants to see retrogression Override stay tuned!!!!!!

Edited December 18, 2020 by tight isobar

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

so much better than the 12z...we want that ‘unbroken’ link to the southern tip of Greenland.  12z had remnants of a trough separation there.  This ECM land

BFTP 

[Griff]

Just now, tight isobar said:

If anyone wants to see retrogression Override stay tuned!!!!!!

Yes looks promising! 

[Daniel*]

18z even more poleward with ridge only slight and a stronger ridge as well, you can’t really tell difference which is reassuring.

[Allseasons-Si]

The trigger low is still there over Iceland on the 18z

174.

another good run coming up.

 

[bluearmy]

The upstream system which drives the WAA to retrogress the ridge is little less negatively tilted at T180

if the retrogression is a little less impressive on this run then that’s the reason ...

[Matt H]

Can’t believe this run is going to pull it off again, brilliant consistency today at least.

[Griff]

I'm still convinced they'll link up... 

[Kasim Awan]

The 18z gfs has come into line with the ecm quite a bit.

[Allseasons-Si]

Superbowl 2020...

i am bowled over

[sheikhy]

Not as deep into greenland but let me tell you something thats 4 gfs runs in a row now!!talk about consistency!!!!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm still convinced they'll link up... 

I’m not, but they don’t need to!

[tight isobar]

The polar high is key >=trigger.. and is within a time parameter .. as a global/-n- hemispheric sequence... we are destined I think -at last...the dice is throwing us a solid “6”

Edited December 18, 2020 by tight isobar

[Vikos]

 

This would be opening the vaccin freezer, IF there was substantial cold air available... -4 over a +6°C north sea...

[Daniel*]

That’s the joy of Greenland/Atlantic blocking like this last seen in December 2010 once you have it it’s the most trustworthy not like Scandi highs, you just know nothing can stop what is coming.

[Ice Day]

ECM at 216 vs Pub Run at 210.  I mean, that's just  simply stunning synoptics, the weather on the ground at this point won't necessarily be there yet, but it's coming!

  

[kumquat]

12C Uppers on the South East coast of Greenland - Where's me sun bed?

By the way, interesting upcoming talk on COVID missing aero data (Free to all)

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[Mike Poole]

And the cold marches south towards us.  May be not as far into Greenland but the ridge extends west of Greenland too, GFS T210: