Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[SLEETY]

I want to see that 10 day ecm chart get down to 72 hours then we are talking, and the uppers wouldn't be marginal anywhere in UK. We can dream but at least the signs of bitter cold start way before ten days ahead, for a change. 

[Yarmy]

Promising output, but as seasoned members know all too well, if there’s a way for Blighty to avoid cold it’ll find it. Nonetheless, we appear to be some distance from the Glosea horror show forecasts of November.  
Anyway, the split energy of the 2 depressions over the CONUS on the Tuesday 12z ECM has reappeared miraculously:

 

 

 

[Zak M]

Phroar - hello there P29..

   

[SLEETY]

34 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Phroar - hello there P29..

   

Yes perfect, snow showers piling in from the East. Eastern coastal areas likely to be buried from lake_effect snow!! 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Would love to see the ECM 240 chart to verify but sods law says no!

[Mucka]

Good morning.

ICON surprisingly sticking to its guns, pretty sure it is firing blanks though. Even UKMO has finally smelt that Atlantic ridge is quickly being overrun.

ICON/UKMO

UKMO doesn't have the amplification upstream though. hope it is wrong again, it has been pretty useless 120/144 for a while.

GFS 144 still has the upstream amplification and the digging trough

That low was a little slower though which creates a bit of a ridge.

That is great if the low still disrupts S/SE but if it deflects it more E then that could be an issue.

Main point the upstream amplification is still there and I feel UKMO is behind on this pattern.

Edited December 19, 2020 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good morning.

ICON surprisingly sticking to its guns, pretty sure it is firing blanks though. Even UKMO has finally smelt that Atlantic ridge is quickly being overrun.

ICON/UKMO

UKMO doesn't have the amplification upstream though. hope it is wrong again, it has been pretty useless 120/144 for a while.

Yes, noticed the lack of amplification upstream on the UKMO and that has to be a concern. That amplification and digging trough is needed in order to force the Atlantic HP N

Previously when the UKMO says no, no happens. 

GFS has the amplification but we're still no closer to knowing the ultimate outcome

Edited December 19, 2020 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

The arctic high is really helping with preventing the low moving more E and forcing it S/SE. 

This will be another Boom run.

ICON is on another planet by this point which just goes to show how small differences in the near term can make dramatic differences even by the mid term.

ICON/GFS 168

Edited December 19, 2020 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The arctic high is really helping with preventing the low moving more E and forcing it S/SE. 

This will be another Boom run.

We need to pray that the GFS is modelling stateside better than the UKMO. Hard to see how we see anything other than a rounded mid Atlantic HP from that UKMO day 6 chart.

[Mucka]

Lots of lovely snow moving down from the N by 192. Is it too much to ask?

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Lots of lovely snow moving down from the N by 192. Is it too much to ask?

I think it was Steve Murr who said, if the UKMO isn't on board, forget it. Even if GFS and ECM agree. 

For that reason I'm holding off until the 12z. We may get some better clarity by then one way or another.

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think it was Steve Murr who said, if the UKMO isn't on board, forget it. Even if GFS and ECM agree. 

For that reason I'm holding off until the 12z. We may get some better clarity by then one way or another.

Only sensible but UKMO has only just modelled the low pushing through when GFS and ECM had it pegged yesterday morning so hopefully it is still playing catch up.

 

The slower low on GFS and resulting little ridge it throws up prevents the trough digging as far South as previous runs which negatively effects the cold flow somewhat but that it nit-picking and hopefully won't develop in future output, still a great run!

Edited December 19, 2020 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

Much better heights I to Greenland by day 9 on this run, not sure how this will play out now. Hopefully that big chunk of PV keeps moving away to the east to allow the real cold to hit us, and not stay to our West/North West

[Griff]

6 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

No! Finger slipped, will fix!

Good news, 850s better on the 00z

 

[swfc]

Just as a side note if you looked at the gfs 0z on the 1st of January you'd be thinking it would be a great chart for very wintry conditions. Atlantic blocked, Heighths into greenland and a low over the UK. The issue again is 850s which at that distance are academic but its just a case in point 

[SLEETY]

No good concentrating on day 9 charts if the output is wrong at the much earlier timeframe and the ukmo is not good its too flat, hopefully ECM doesn't follow it

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Good news, 850s better on the 00z

 

Yes for a very short period. Shame given the nhp be it fi

[swfc]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

No good concentrating on day 9 charts if the output is wrong at the much earlier timeframe and the ukmo is not good its too flat, hopefully ECM doesn't follow it

The output can't be wrong it's not happened yet. Its all hyperthetical until it happens. 

[Mucka]

Still less than 50% GFS ensembles on board but it has increased run to run.

GEM showing one way how things could go a little amiss with the low.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Still less than 50% GFS ensembles on board but it has increased run to run.

GEM showing one way how things could go a little amiss with the low.

 

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes for a very short period. Shame given the nhp be it fi

Yes, gem! 

[Griff]

 

? 

Eureka! 

I'm clearly on the spectrum and for absolutely no sustainable scientific reason I'm convinced the Arctic high is destined to link up over Scandi with the Atlantic / Greenland... 

[Griff]

FYI I note the down beat vibe this morning, remember where the charts were a week ago and were only just coming back around! 

I suspect we all need more sleep. 

Occurs to me model watching is about the journey, and the destination is almost secondary, as it's been observed the resulting weather may only be fleeting, transitory and often bare no actual resemblance. If it's weather we're all after, might I suggest we just go outside! 

Stay   

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

? 

Eureka! 

I'm clearly on the spectrum and for absolutely no sustainable scientific reason I'm convinced the Arctic high is destined to link up over Scandi with the Atlantic / Greenland... 

I think the Heighths in the Atlantic arnt progressive enough tbh on that chartand not aligned correct. I could be wrong tho on the next run

[Mucka]

One of main issues with getting the colder 850's is the round lows GFS is programming don't draw in enough polar air and modifies the flow with a wider circulation.

Whereas a more elongated trough could give a more direct Arctic feed as with these two ensemble members

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

FYI I note the down beat vibe this morning, remember where the charts were a week ago and were only just coming back around! 

I suspect we all need more sleep. 

Occurs to me model watching is about the journey, and the destination is almost secondary, as it's been observed the resulting weather may only be fleeting, transitory and often bare no actual resemblance. If it's weather we're all after, might I suggest we just go outside! 

Stay   

Yes your correct Griff. Thing is it does seem the UK being a small island surrounded by sea is always unlucky. That said Id give my grandmother's wooden leg for a severe winter