Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[tight isobar]

Stamp it/snap it.. roll on it.. and wack it in ya txt books... this on operational..yet with sister suites.. and ensemble support!!! .with factoring gains..(@newly stewed data’s)

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Vikos said:

 

This would be opening the vaccin freezer, IF there was substantial cold air available... -4 over a +6°C north sea...

The "problem" here is a slight build in heights north of Scandinavia which prevents coupling of the main low with the Arctic low, preventing movement of more serious cold. Nontheless, I'd be fine in Buxton.

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And the cold marches south towards us.  May be not as far into Greenland but the ridge extends west of Greenland too, GFS T210:

?

[Matt H]

T192 on the GFS 18z last Friday compared to today. If anyone had told me we’d be seeing charts like this consistently only a week later I’d have laughed in your face.

[Kasim Awan]

P.S. the ECM set an easterly trend following the initial northerly, GFS is now opening up the door to the beast zone... could be onto something.

[Mike Poole]

GFS T240

It is variants on a theme by this stage, and we will have to see where the cold air goes and where the snow goes, but it is another fine run, and if correct GFS picked the broad evolution before the others.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Mike Poole
Corrected T850 chart

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T240

It is variants on a theme by this stage, and we will have to see where the cold air goes and where the snow goes, but it is another fine run, and if correct GFS picked the broad evolution before the others.

Did you mean to mix 18z and 12z?

[Allseasons-Si]

That is one mangled trop pv.

 

[sheikhy]

Aand i sense more upgrades coming in the next day or 2!!!!this has serious 2010 vibes to it

[stewfox]

29 minutes ago, kumquat said:

12C Uppers on the South East coast of Greenland - Where's me sun bed?

Had one 10 years ago t 

 

Had one 10 years ago to this very day 18 dec 2010

Edited December 18, 2020 by stewfox

[ITSY]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Aand i sense more upgrades coming in the next day or 2!!!!this has serious 2010 vibes to it

Not yet! Uppers will need to be lower with plenty more troughs traversing the country. At the moment it’s really positive but baby steps - keep note of the stratosphere too should, for some reason, cold chances suddenly collapse. It’s good to have a fall back! 

[Zak M]

The GFS has been something else today... and the 18z is carrying on with its bonkers runs.

   

[ITSY]

Control amplification attacking Greenland by +156. The earliest yet

[Ice Day]

The SSW still looking solid at 276 (although it kicks off around day 6/7).

 

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Griff said:

Did you mean to mix 18z and 12z?

No! Finger slipped, will fix!

[Zak M]

The -8c isotherm ends up covering most of the country too

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Aand i sense more upgrades coming in the next day or 2!!!!this has serious 2010 vibes to it

It has a very cold and very possibly pretty snowy ‘Christmas week’ and New Year to it for sure.  If this lasts well into Jan I’ll be quite surprised.  I think a generally ‘Westerly’ dominated flow will rtn for Jan as we head through the first week .....doesn’t mean mild and constantly zonal but not a blocking lock down

 

BFTP

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

"Missing data alert"

[ICE COLD]

Cant make up my mind what stonking  chart to post ? So I thought oh well are just post em all

[Daniel*]

Things must be a bit good when GFS 18z seems under par.

 

[wellington boot]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T240

It is variants on a theme by this stage, and we will have to see where the cold air goes and where the snow goes, but it is another fine run, and if correct GFS picked the broad evolution before the others.

Well it is very often the case that gfs picks patterns first, but i would argue this is because it runs twice as often and looks a significant chunk further into the future, and it's various runs spew out such a wide range of scenarios that by the time any synoptic comes into the reliable timeframe there's a good chance you saw it on GFS at some point earlier.

Doesn't mean that's very useful.

[Kentspur]

10 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Not yet! Uppers will need to be lower with plenty more troughs traversing the country. At the moment it’s really positive but baby steps - keep note of the stratosphere too should, for some reason, cold chances suddenly collapse. It’s good to have a fall back! 

I agree this particular run so far smacks me as Northern Hills/ coastal type of Northerly/NWly set up, fingers crossed the Beast Appears again...

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kentspur

[nick sussex]

Founder member CAS . Coldies Against Slush !

Ice days and crunchy snow is what the vast majority of members here want to see so as much as we’ve seen some very encouraging outputs my crunchy snow alert hasn’t  been activated yet for the UK.

Given the horrors that could have been dished up with mild crud then the trends are good overall but let’s aim high and not have to put up with buffet scraps .

Long suffering UK coldies deserve first dibs . 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by nick sussex

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Cant make up my mind what stonking  chart to post ? So I thought oh well are just post em all

I like the blue one.  Seriously, though, promising variations on themes all around the models.

[Downburst]

This spring was remarkable, records broken for sunshine, drought and warmth for many. Now the models are showing signs of another possible 2010 (subject to actually happening, and who knows how much change is yet to come) with low orbit MJO and nevertheless a crazily massive atlantic block high pressure, one has to wonder what’s going on with the weather