Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

On 17/11/2021 at 19:39, keithlucky said:

How the position on Hp effects next week weather .

Looks like western and Eastern Looks to favoured by the predicted weather for next week.Cooling down next week,come Thursday another cold front moves south,fetching colder weather and mostly snow showers to Wales.

[keithlucky]

8 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Looks like western and Eastern Looks to favoured by the predicted weather for next week.Cooling down next week,come Thursday another cold front moves south,fetching colder weather and mostly snow showers to Wales.

Hear we go charts are now aligning up with met office not doom and gloom .Colder by  next weekend. 

Edited November 19, 2021 by keithlucky
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[keithlucky]

No change in outlook Colder air digs south Friday with more showers Saturday with snow possible even at lower levels.

[snefnug]

Glad I got the more tender plants in.  Sharp frost this morning.  Cats refusing to go out….

[keithlucky]

Starting to look good across Wales, chances of snow Saturday /Saturday night

[mattrout92]

Cold week ahead by the looks of things. Could be some fun and games around this weekend if the ECM is anywhere near the mark. Lets up for a winter to remember this year!

 

[keithlucky]

11 hours ago, mattrout92 said:

Cold week ahead by the looks of things. Could be some fun and games around this weekend if the ECM is anywhere near the mark. Lets up for a winter to remember this year!

 

Goàod chance of snow cover higher ground   

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Goàod chance of snow cover higher ground   

 

[keithlucky]

6 hours ago, keithlucky said:

 

Time has altered sleet and snow moving down from the North.Hopefully heavy precipitation the better which will drive down dew points turning sleet to snow.  More news for Winter outlook La nina is gathering pace which should lead to blocking and a colder than average winter.

[keithlucky]

3 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Time has altered sleet and snow moving down from the North.Hopefully heavy precipitation the better which will drive down dew points turning sleet to snow.  More news for Winter outlook La nina is gathering pace which should lead to blocking and a colder than average winter.

 

[Sky Full]

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for wind covering all of Wales effective for Saturday.  The current set up looks like delivering strong coastal gusts from around 2am Saturday peaking overnight and early morning, with maximum gusts up to 80mph for western coasts and headlands, but especially along the northern, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire coasts as shown by this chart:

Other models have slightly different outlooks with some showing weaker gusts, but this will need watching.  Best to expect some damaging gusts and take action to secure loose items outside…

[Jackfrost]

33 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for wind covering all of Wales effective for Saturday.  The current set up looks like delivering strong coastal gusts from around 2am Saturday peaking overnight and early morning, with maximum gusts up to 80mph for western coasts and headlands, but especially along the northern, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire coasts as shown by this chart:

Other models have slightly different outlooks with some showing weaker gusts, but this will need watching.  Best to expect some damaging gusts and take action to secure loose items outside…

It's rare to get a northerly gale of that intensity! I'd be a bit worried if we hadn't had our old and battered garden fencing repaired and reinforced earlier in the summer, because those are some strong gusts even inland further south. Either way, it'll feel bitter with the windchill.

Re. snow, I really doubt we'll see any settling below 300-400 m, and even there accumulations likely won't be significant, but as things stand I think a wintry mix to quite low levels is possible.

[keithlucky]

12 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

It's rare to get a northerly gale of that intensity! I'd be a bit worried if we hadn't had our old and battered garden fencing repaired and reinforced earlier in the summer, because those are some strong gusts even inland further south. Either way, it'll feel bitter with the windchill.

Re. snow, I really doubt we'll see any settling below 300-400 m, and even there accumulations likely won't be significant, but as things stand I think a wintry mix to quite low levels is possible.

Still no change sleet turning to to snow early hours of Saturday ATM, obviously higher ground favoured for settling snow.Bitterly cold with strong northerly wind snow showers to follow.

[Sky Full]

13 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

It's rare to get a northerly gale of that intensity! I'd be a bit worried if we hadn't had our old and battered garden fencing repaired and reinforced earlier in the summer, because those are some strong gusts even inland further south. Either way, it'll feel bitter with the windchill.

Re. snow, I really doubt we'll see any settling below 300-400 m, and even there accumulations likely won't be significant, but as things stand I think a wintry mix to quite low levels is possible.

There continues to be some disagreement between models as to the position and strength of the worst gales but this is bound to be clearer by Friday morning.  In the meantime most of the models have coastal gusts over 70mph on Saturday early morning and the Icon is showing 70mph+ gusts well inland too…..

 

You don’t want to be on the Fishguard to Rosslare ferry on Friday evening!

[Sky Full]

ECM quite keen for almost everyone in Wales to see snow on Saturday night….

However, other models say no snow at all, so it’s anyone’s guess until the last minute.  It will feel very cold though….

[Penfoel]

On 24/11/2021 at 21:57, Sky Full said:

There continues to be some disagreement between models as to the position and strength of the worst gales but this is bound to be clearer by Friday morning.  In the meantime most of the models have coastal gusts over 70mph on Saturday early morning and the Icon is showing 70mph+ gusts well inland too…..

 

You don’t want to be on the Fishguard to Rosslare ferry on Friday evening!

Well hail and sleet showers are whipped into stinging facials here @Strumble Head . The sea is foaming and rolling . Wind speed gusting to 57 mph NW. DP 6.8   temp 9.8 allegedly but a feels like of 4.2 . Welcome to winter ! 

Doubt I will see the ferry pass the farm this weekend

[ANYWEATHER]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

Cloudy, Cu/Sc, with light shower and breezy

Since when has Camborne been in Wales

[Jackfrost]

Showers now starting to turn wintry across high ground in Wales according to the NW radar. Those levels will gradually drop through the day.

After being sceptical about the potential for snow + high winds in Wales, I have to admit that I'm now less sure; it's rare to get extreme northerly gales in the UK and the uncertainty on exact placing of rain/sleet/snow still seems quite high. This morning's updated warnings will be interesting, and an interesting twenty-four hours of weather coming up.

[Sky Full]

The models are all in disagreement about the strength and distribution of the strongest wind gusts and also whether Wales will see any snow this weekend.  The GFS has the whole storm further east than most with only the borders seeing any snow, but other models show much stronger winds in the west with snow showers quite widespread.  What we do know is it will be very windy almost everywhere and some of the showers are likely to be wintry especially on the highest ground.  I might see a little white stuff on the Preselis but I’m not betting on it!   Currently we have the sun out here but lots of shower clouds heading this way, and the wind is getting very gusty now.  

[Snowyowl9]

Sleet snow falling already fresh strong NW winds...

Severe howling Nly gales tonight...

Severe blizzards where it snows.

[DeepSnow]

Very gusty and windy in general here in Barry with some heavy showers on and off. Not expecting anything wintery down herr but who knows!

[helly in her wellies]

Very gusty here in North Wales today. Snowdon has a good covering on it when I saw it briefly this morning. Regular sharp showers coming through, some sleety. 

[Dundeeguy]

Snowgate Webcam - Braemar

BRAEMARSCOTLAND.CO.UK

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This image will automatically update every minute. This webcam is located beside the caravan park on the A93 at the southern entrance to Braemar. Webcams covering other snowgates...

 Lovely day here in red warning zone

[keithlucky]

3 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Sleet snow falling already fresh strong NW winds...

Severe howling Nly gales tonight...

Severe blizzards where it snows.

Let's see if we can keep showers going temperatures dropping.As you said possible 3 minutes blizzards lol.

[keithlucky]

7 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

Showers now starting to turn wintry across high ground in Wales according to the NW radar. Those levels will gradually drop through the day.

After being sceptical about the potential for snow + high winds in Wales, I have to admit that I'm now less sure; it's rare to get extreme northerly gales in the UK and the uncertainty on exact placing of rain/sleet/snow still seems quite high. This morning's updated warnings will be interesting, and an interesting twenty-four hours of weather coming up.

Problem is ATM the main band of snow will travel down central and Eastern UK which is closer to the Low pressure system.We cannot rule out rogue heavy showers.So radar watching is required. 

Edited November 26, 2021 by keithlucky