Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

18 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Interesting developing streamer over the Irish Sea,as the winds veer more to a Nwesterly some places in Wales could see a dusting in places.

Precipitation should drift into Pembroke around 8pm .

[Jackfrost]

Very touch-and-go as to whether we receive snow, rain or nothing at all today. The further east in Wales the better, but the majority of the precipitation looks like going through the Midlands, and as the day goes on things naturally become more marginal.

My forecast would be for some light and patchy snow with altitude in Monmouthshire, eastern Valleys, east Powys and northeast Wales, rain at lower levels and towards the coast.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Jackfrost

[Jackfrost]

Pleasantly surprised to see the band becoming more organised and reinvigorating as it comes south, with development over North Wales. That should make things less "touch-and-go" than I previously expected when it comes to the question of there being precipitation around. Before and after, 9:45 and 11:15:

As for temperatures, on the face of it they do seem slightly too high for snow for most of us, but dew points are decent.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Jackfrost

[Loadsa2000]

dewpoint here is 1.6 at the moment

Snow  for Brecon but rain in Merthyr tonight according the met

Edited November 28, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[keithlucky]

A brief mild Monday/Tuesday, turning colder Wednesday with heavy wintry showers Friday gets interesting with more General hill snow,Wintry showers to follow.So a enjoyable wintry start to winter.

[DeepSnow]

Northerlies generally aren't got for us in SE Wales nor are Easterlies as we know. Im hoping that if we do get an Easterlie in the next few weeks if any of those charts varify  we can get a battleground snow event to see some here. Is it really much to ask for?

[Bartlett High]

Pouring with rain here!

[dbaloo]

Cold out just incase anyone didn't know

[wimblettben]

That storm Friday night into Saturday bought the strongest winds I have seen since we moved here at brongest, Wales in 2018.

All during that night my weather station which is just over 6ft in height had quite a few gusts in the 30s mph which is unusual to get at ground level in a garden. All of my mothers dragon ornaments in the garden were knocked over and badly damaged.

Considering the day after I still managed to get 43mph and 46mph gusts up the hill tells me that there must have been frequent gusts in the 50s mph that night and possibly a few in the 60s mph which we hardly ever reach. I think its likely we had those level of winds as there were a few small trees that were uprooted or snapped in half, a few large branches off of some of the bigger trees and a neighbours scaffolding that had been knocked over.

Another thing is as I was watching the wind the gusts had a punch effect going over the house which I have hardly ever witnessed before and the amount of power flashes in the sky I saw that night was ridiculous.

I am a bit annoyed I wasn't able to go out to possibly break my handheld anemometer reading of 53mph since living here but I didn't risk going out up the hill to measure the winds as the wind chill would have been really bad and I wouldn't have wanted a tree or large branch to take my life. Had it been milder I could have just gone up earlier before the worst came as I wouldn't have had to worry about getting wind chill from being out the whole night. There are a load of trees each side of the road you have to walk past while walking up the hill before you come across safer open land and farm gates where I take my wind readings so I just couldn't risk it. 

[Sky Full]

On 26/11/2021 at 12:11, Sky Full said:

The models are all in disagreement about the strength and distribution of the strongest wind gusts and also whether Wales will see any snow this weekend.  The GFS has the whole storm further east than most with only the borders seeing any snow, but other models show much stronger winds in the west with snow showers quite widespread.  What we do know is it will be very windy almost everywhere and some of the showers are likely to be wintry especially on the highest ground.  I might see a little white stuff on the Preselis but I’m not betting on it!   Currently we have the sun out here but lots of shower clouds heading this way, and the wind is getting very gusty now.  

Well, now we all know what Storm Arwen delivered and the warnings were certainly warranted.  As it turned out the highest of the Preselis, Foel Cwmcerwyn, did have a light covering of snow yesterday which was very nice to see - the earliest lying snow in the Preselis I can remember. 

[Cwmbran Eira]

What's been notable for me this month is how nice all the Sundays have been, they've all been dry and mostly sunny which is impressive for November. 

[danthetan]

6 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Well, now we all know what Storm Arwen delivered and the warnings were certainly warranted.  As it turned out the highest of the Preselis, Foel Cwmcerwyn, did have a light covering of snow yesterday which was very nice to see - the earliest lying snow in the Preselis I can remember. 

just seen this photo on Facebook of the Preseli's , rather than the snow whats interesting is the way the gale force winds have blown grass into the wire fence and woven it.

[keithlucky]

On 28/11/2021 at 13:28, keithlucky said:

A brief mild Monday/Tuesday, turning colder Wednesday with heavy wintry showers Friday gets interesting with more General hill snow,Wintry showers to follow.So a enjoyable wintry start to winter.

Friday looks interesting cold front moves down from Nwest,Bringing outbreaks of snow/sleet ,in even in the  south  Even to low ground in the heavier burst.  

Edited November 29, 2021 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Friday looks interesting cold front moves down from Nwest,Bringing outbreaks of snow/sleet ,in even in the  south  Even to low ground in the heavier burst.  

What makes this fascinating is a possible battleground situation as colder air to to the east pushes west meets slightly less colder air to the west.

[The4Seasons]

Hi everyone, some of you might get a little surprise snowfall overnight. Met office have issued a yellow alert which does reference a snow risk  

[The4Seasons]

Well wouldn't this be a dream for us welsh snow lovers . ECM looking better tonight. The weather we get next week is really on a knife edge. Will it be cold or will it be mild? That all depends on the strength of the scandi block (in blue area) if it sets up and the position of the Azores HP (need it to stay flat tilted south east and slightly west as per arrow heading left) to deflect the Atlantic energy south east into continental Europe (as per arrow heading right).  If there is too much Azores HP nearby to the south (just off Portugal) then the Atlantic energy will steam roll into the scandi block riding over a strong south west to westerly flow of winds which will push the scandi block back east. Its all to play for I say. Just watch this space with interest . I will be watching the positions of the noted airmasses above to conclude the direction I think the weather will go as to cold or milder in the outlook. Good luck with the snow potential tonight as per my previous post .

Edited December 1, 2021 by The4Seasons

[keithlucky]

12 hours ago, The4Seasons said:

Well wouldn't this be a dream for us welsh snow lovers . ECM looking better tonight. The weather we get next week is really on a knife edge. Will it be cold or will it be mild? That all depends on the strength of the scandi block (in blue area) if it sets up and the position of the Azores HP (need it to stay flat tilted south east and slightly west as per arrow heading left) to deflect the Atlantic energy south east into continental Europe (as per arrow heading right).  If there is too much Azores HP nearby to the south (just off Portugal) then the Atlantic energy will steam roll into the scandi block riding over a strong south west to westerly flow of winds which will push the scandi block back east. Its all to play for I say. Just watch this space with interest . I will be watching the positions of the noted airmasses above to conclude the direction I think the weather will go as to cold or milder in the outlook. Good luck with the snow potential tonight as per my previous post .

Met still don't know what what direction the LP will  it moves  north east rather than south as theGFS says westerly winds will take control for a few weeks         We want LP to push south allowing The HP over Iceland to link up with the Scandinavian HP,Allowing a cold easterly feed. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Snow showing up on radar in Northwards can anybody confirm.

[Jackfrost]

While I'm not currently expecting anything wintry away from the highest ground in the coming week, these forecast temperatures are fairly close to the threshold for wintriness and are not usually associated with a December Atlantic storm. With normal zonality, you can expect the systems to pass directly over the UK on their way to northern Germany or Scandinavia rather than dive NW-SE, a sign of the strength of the block to our NE. Anyway:

Worth keeping an eye on at the very least.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Jackfrost

[keithlucky]

Sleet/snow falling over North Wales ATM, can anybody verify this 

[keithlucky]

3 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Sleet/snow falling over North Wales ATM, can anybody verify this 

Heavy sleet in Swansea snowing higher levels.

[keithlucky]

Very interesting weather coming Tuesday/Wednesday stalling front over Central UK,snow over East UK.if the front stalls further west ,we could see snow over west  

[Cwmbran Eira]

On 29/11/2021 at 12:57, Cwmbran Eira said:

What's been notable for me this month is how nice all the Sundays have been, they've all been dry and mostly sunny which is impressive for November. 

Another nice Sunday here. Must some kind of obscure record

[snefnug]

Oooh that’s not nice!  Squally sleety showers suddenly, and windy and a cold wind to boot.

[Sky Full]

The wind is getting up properly again, with large mature trees already waving around like saplings.   Heavy rain so far this morning soaked the poor dog on her early morning business outside, but hopefully this will ease up after midday (the rain, that is, not the dog!).   The wind, however, is set to increase in strength and peak in late afternoon.   Judging by the early gusts, which can already be felt inside the house, this one is going to be interesting…….   Just hoping the new shed I built last month is still standing tomorrow morning.

Edited December 7, 2021 by Sky Full