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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

The cold from the north will repell the invasion from the south. 

image.thumb.png.40ff26e7ceb728742749d1b9621db587.png

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks very temporary though, a few hrs later you can trace the air source back to Central Europe with the milder air into northern France. 

4A826BED-2374-42EB-A5E0-B38F7C15991D.png

Yes very temporary - until the north-easterly kicks in.......

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pureasthedriven Aficionado

pureasthedriven

Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
Posted
3 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

There is a possibility significant snow in the southern England next week  possibility.

809BE9FF-277C-4F34-9924-A98BAB02ECDF.webp 31.02 kB · 15 downloads

On that chart alone, far too marginal for me for the south of M4 tribe. Too much mixing, air source too unremarkable. 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

You're going to think I'm bonkers, but ignoring the 00z and looking at both pub runs and this morning's para... 

I expected greater variance. This I consider a positive on the 06z

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gfsnh-0-240 (3).png

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North East Blizzard Enthusiast

North East Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
Posted

Mean looks decent for early next week to me, an improvement for sure

gensnh-31-0-120.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFSP at 210, some sort of polar invasion from the north is becoming more than likely.  The question is will it fall favourably for the UK?

image.thumb.png.1157f1553b3c9b02f123e18f4fe064e6.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

You're going to think I'm bonkers, but ignoring the 00z and looking at both pub runs and this morning's para... 

I expected greater variance. This I consider a positive on the 06z

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gfsnh-0-240 (2).png

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfsnh-0-240 (3).png

He's bonkers. Quite bonkers!

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Massively different to ECM and its own 0z , HP now sinking 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

GFSP at 210, some sort of polar invasion from the north is becoming more than likely.  The question is will it fall favourably for the UK?

image.thumb.png.1157f1553b3c9b02f123e18f4fe064e6.png

Yes just looking at this, not quite but room for favourable (and not so) evolution... 

However, it's not flattening the pattern which I take as positive too. 

gfsnh-0-216 (4).png

gfsnh-1-216 (2).png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Amazing output atm. Gfs looks great on the 6z and all things point to cold across the board. Given last years abysmally pathetic winter I'd suggest any complaints on the output are strange ie snow, 850s, temps. All up for grabs but excellent outlook for our small island.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, MJB said:

Massively different to ECM and its own 0z , HP now sinking 

Tbh it's a long way of atm altho within the realms of the current mix and match off outcomes. All imo staying cold Also look west Atlantic dead has a dodo 

Edited by swfc
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I thought BBC  (Meteogroup) were a bit mad talking  about a low into the south bringing widespread snow later in the week. We are starting to see signs of this now though....

340DAFA6-36CC-41D8-901A-7C120471BB19.png

GFSp pushes the low further north with an almost nationwide snow event at day 8

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Steady Easterly Contributor

Steady Easterly

Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
Posted

I think its obvious the models are struggling with various factors, ssw being the obvious one, cannot be taken seriously given the stark run to run differences, probably better off finding some old wallpaper to draw your own charts on.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

From a snow perspective the GFSp is awesome for most! Easterly streamers followed by channel low followed by polar north westerly! It has Something for everyone. This is the chart after the low brining snow from the south clears... 

7F75CDFE-EB12-4847-9446-8C498C89AEBC.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

All the blocking now and we can’t get the real stonking uppers but in FI there’s not much blocking over are side an we get these stonking uppers . All roads lead to cold ?

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Expecting some crazy runs from now on!!i mean that paralell run has gone off on one now!!!maybe the warming is starting to filter through!!

 

I'm finding lots of coffee is helping manage my outlook. 

Better, by the way from the para! 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T120 gfs. My old man used to say to me if you’ve got nothing meaning full to say it’s better sometimes to say nothing. I looked at this morning’s output and there was such a mixture of possibilities I didn’t know where to start.

I would say this though. There is not one pert we wouldn’t take as a starting point.

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