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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Not even -7 850s are giving snow showers!!now i know the north sea is warmer than normal but that is truly shocking!!

Don't forget every day the north sea gets slightly colder now, and that -7 might turn in -8 or -9 by the time we get to day 7.

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not even -7 850s are giving snow showers!!now i know the north sea is warmer than normal but that is truly shocking!!

Only what’s modelled though. In reality, I’d expect decent convection out of that and a good chance of inland snow showers. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The issue is here that the SSW may or may not propagate and if it does will it produce the goods because undoubtedly without a major split it will affect the Pacific pattern. You may end up wishing that a SSW never occurred in a month or so if the Pacific amplification occurs as a result of post SSW Tropical feedback. I don’t know how long the lower Atlantic trop disruption will continue for, but I have never been more wary of an SSW not being long term beneficial than this one.

This is what I’m concerned about. We are seeing great synoptics without the interference from a SSW. It will be very disappointing if the SSW ‘ruins’ our chances

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The issue is here that the SSW may or may not propagate and if it does will it produce the goods because undoubtedly without a major split it will affect the Pacific pattern. You may end up wishing that a SSW never occurred in a month or so if the Pacific amplification occurs as a result of post SSW Tropical feedback. I don’t know how long the lower Atlantic trop disruption will continue for, but I have never been more wary of an SSW not being long term beneficial than this one.

But whatever the SSW does, or doesn't do, Chio, I think we're in a pretty darn good, and well-primed, position right now... Best I've seen since 2013!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Sorry for being the grinch but just for the benefit of this who are scrolling the forum fior snow opportunities ... ECM looks great Synopticaly and has lots of potential day 10+ however it has little or no snow for most. So it’s not a ‘grab your shovel’ run. There is less snow on the ground by the end than there is now. Weds system misses the south, there is also hardly any showers coming south Thurs / Fri. It’s then dry for a few days then a bit of light rain coming in from the east before a colder dry finish. As we are approaching mid winter I’m personally just looking for snow now so I’m a little disappointed as it just has a bit of rain for most and the potential is after day 10

C1E91D89-C8A2-4286-86A6-2990CC500826.jpeg

Why are you assuming these precipitation charts are going to 100% verify?

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not even -7 850s are giving snow showers!!now i know the north sea is warmer than normal but that is truly shocking!!if gfs 18z shows the same as the 12z run then i am expecting a slightly better run from ecm in the morning!!

Gfs has plenty of snow showers piling in? 

gfs-2-144.png

gfs-2-156.png

gfs-2-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
3 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

This is what I’m concerned about. We are seeing great synoptics without the interference from a SSW. It will be very disappointing if the SSW ‘ruins’ our chances

Most times that we are praying for an SSW we don’t see 100hPa u winds heading towards record low levels. Especially with the disruption Atlantic based. Most of the time we are trying to knock the strat vortex off it’s perch. This is very different this time, so this is why I am a little bit sceptical of papers which have showed the SSW trop response when the strat PV is at a max

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Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

12z FAX charts take tomorrows low pressure southwards into N France now. It's game over for southern England, expect the MO to cancel the warning in the morning.

1.thumb.png.dc2e540adbb26e0a92273daea3e62e1b.png3.thumb.png.4e7dbe01f6429183c64b7ece01c85fa0.png

Onto the next one! Plenty to look forward to.

Could it still skim the far reaches of the south coast? 

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Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk
13 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The issue is here that the SSW may or may not propagate and if it does will it produce the goods because undoubtedly without a major split it will affect the Pacific pattern. You may end up wishing that a SSW never occurred in a month or so if the Pacific amplification occurs as a result of post SSW Tropical feedback. I don’t know how long the lower Atlantic trop disruption will continue for, but I have never been more wary of an SSW not being long term beneficial than this one.

Didn’t someone in the early days of the strat thread do something on weather before and after a SSW. And worked out that there was almost as much chance of having cold weather in the lead up to the SSW as there is after? Or did I dream that? 

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26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It just seems that at the moment, we’ve accepted our invite to the cold party. But we can’t seem to get an invite to the special VIP lounge where deep cold is located.

 

 

Tell me about it  Anyone willing to shell out for an invite? 

vip lounge.png

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats what i expected ecm to show!!!maybe it will pick it up closer to the time!!

Could end up somewhere in between, which wouldn't be all bad. Guess we'll find out with a bit more certainty in the next few days

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Why are you assuming these precipitation charts are going to 100% verify?

I’m not. I’m just pointing out the facts of what the particular run shows. This is a model output discussion forum so I was discussing the output. It may be a run that turns out to be incorrect , but I’m just replying to a post that referred to the 12z ECM as a ‘get your snow shovel out run’ when it doesn’t show much , if any snow for anyone , even in the north. If you disagree and want to show why you think this ECM run was a snowy ‘get your shovel out’ run then please elaborate ...

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Or it could lead to snowy background conditions. Why are you thinking of the worst from a balanced 50/50 chance?

You can choose to stay poitive be happy and then be disappointed if it doesnt go your way

Or

Stay negative be miserable on the build up and when it doesnt go right.

Its never a good thing to think like this in life its an unhappy existence!

To be fair the models have back tracked some what and all the bullish it's going to get better and better has decreased some what. We haven't even had a frost just yet and there is a real possibility that we could after a relatively colder spell go back to business as usual. I do think once again we are looking for a favourable SSW to give most what they desire and currently that is looking 50/50 

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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
27 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not even -7 850s are giving snow showers!!now i know the north sea is warmer than normal but that is truly shocking!!if gfs 18z shows the same as the 12z run then i am expecting a slightly better run from ecm in the morning!!

Don't worry. Here in Norway we had -7.5 850s and it constantly rained with +2 degrees. Eastern winds over the Skaggerak sea and warm eastern Europe. There is no cold to our east so eastern winds are much warmer than normal even with -7 850s

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensemble mean T240, with the vortex pushed as far away from us as possible, I think:

FAF92221-D973-47C4-9647-5F5701EDB5D7.thumb.jpeg.4db6c45e1ae4f5cd9fb9dd8a6f69999b.jpeg6EDFAA7E-CC93-4458-8893-0F12CE97E2C8.thumb.png.2468a2eaf79fc90b38e9763d52de2dc3.png

Good support for sliding the whole damn lot down, in terms of cold from the NNW.  Uncertainty east though, so there may be a fair few runs that don't build heights there, which would help.  

Permutation number 2 on gfs is where this is leading too,we can dream.Insane uppers from an Arctic Northerly,polar lows would be forming all over the place,and none of this marginal wet slusly crud snow for some at the moment.

Nearly minus 20hpa into Scotand heading South..

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Pretty epic reversal really, very interesting model watching - worst case this cold spell folds - we may have another round the corner. However, let’s hope they role into each other with a few months cold.

37683F85-815F-4AA1-90B6-12ABCB55493B.png

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