Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[iceman1991]

4 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Just to say this is the stratosphere at the moment as you can see it’s in its SSW phase and most models now are pointing something significant wise from around the 9th/10th of January which would be correct as the SSW has around a 10 day lag before its effects are felt in the UK also interesting to note later on in the run the polar vortex splits in 2 which can be very good for us coldies! The charts from now should get more interesting from each passing day a fascinating few days of model watching coming up !

So your saying we are having a split now not a warming as some people on here were saying if we have warming could Mess are chances up for cold weather ? 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

That ecm run towards the back end is insane! No vortex no cold almost everywhere in america it all pushed to the Russian side. What a bizarre winter this has been. It truly does have potential to do newsworthy things!

I think you meant anywhere. Dyslexia rules KO. I am also.

[DavidS]

Good agreement thrifty D6/7 between the GFS and ECM 0z. Days 8/9 we see some divergence as the GFS doesn’t get the Atlantic block north to Greenland and instead slips south.

GFS first at D9, then ECM

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by DavidS

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I think you meant anywhere. Dyslexia rules KO. I am also.

I did mean yeahh too early to run spell checker hahaha yeah dislexia does my head in

[Mr snowman 2018]

1 minute ago, iceman1991 said:

So your saying we are having a split now not a warming as some people on here were saying if we have warming could Mess are chances up for cold weather ? 

No a warming favours us most of the time but sometimes a SSW just favours the US and not us it’s just more nailed on if there is a split in the vortex which happens in the latest model in around 3-4 days time !

[Griff]

28 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Considering the outlook, (which is stunning compared to last year) I can't understand why there is a lack of interest this morning?

Everything is still very much in place for a good cold spell, the snow detail is a sticking point, but when isn't it?

It's a new year tomorrow and we should all go into it trying to be optimistic and forward looking....let's forget this awful year and make the best of what we have

 

Happy New Year Netweather 

Possible fatigue after intense model watching? 

Like the vortex, might we all be feeling a little stretched? 

GFSP just for fun keeps options on the table, so who knows. Better than this time yesterday all round! 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Griff

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

So your saying we are having a split now not a warming as some people on here were saying if we have warming could Mess are chances up for cold weather ? 

A warming is already nailed on. It starts on the 5th as has been mentioned a few times. Its just this type of warming is a displacement warming.

There are signs of a split warming to follow they are all the same thing

[iceman1991]

3 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

No a warming favours us most of the time but sometimes a SSW just favours the US and not us it’s just more nailed on if there is a split in the vortex which happens in the latest model in around 3-4 days time !

Cheers for that mr snowman not the clued up on ssw so thank you

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Cheers for that mr snowman not the clued up on ssw so thank you

A split doesnt happen in 3-4 days time a displacement does. A split isnt modelled until 384 hours after the displacement warming

Also no ssw warming is occuring right now irs building up to it.

We officially enter into a ssw on the 5th

10 day lag is the 15th

These charts have more to do with the eamt than the strat. Strat effects are kid month

Edited December 31, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Mr snowman 2018]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

A split doesnt happen in 3-4 days time a displacement does. A split isnt modelled until 384 hours after the displacement warming

Either way models are showing something significant in 9-10 days time which would be in line with the SSW as we start feeling effects in the UK around 10days after 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Either way models are showing something significant in 9-10 days time which would be in line with the SSW as we start feeling effects in the UK around 10days after 

The ssw happens on the 5th

10 days after is the 15th

Until the zonal flow reverses its not a ssw

As said above this is the EAMT effects

Edited December 31, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[iceman1991]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

A split doesnt happen in 3-4 days time a displacement does. A split isnt modelled until 384 hours after the displacement warming

Also no ssw warming is occuring right now irs building up to it.

We officially enter into a ssw on the 5th

10 day lag is the 15th

These charts have more to do with the eamt than the strat. Strat effects are kid month

Nice one thanks for that Scott

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I did mean yeahh too early to run spell checker hahaha yeah dislexia does my head in

Whoever invented the word dyslexia for someone who struggles with spelling to describe them selves needs kicking

Anywoy, fontostic outpot and gsf has to oppotunetes two fallow the EMC befour it next coms out.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, iceman1991 said:

Nice one thanks for that Scott

No worries mate 

[Mucka]

39 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Considering the outlook, (which is stunning compared to last year) I can't understand why there is a lack of interest this morning?

Everything is still very much in place for a good cold spell, the snow detail is a sticking point, but when isn't it?

It's a new year tomorrow and we should all go into it trying to be optimistic and forward looking....let's forget this awful year and make the best of what we have

 

Happy New Year Netweather 

We are in the regional threads and watching the snow  NW contingent anyway

The real stuff is So much prettier than the digital version

Edited December 31, 2020 by Mucka

[Mr snowman 2018]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The ssw happens on the 5th

10 days after is the 15th

Until the zonal flow reverses its not a ssw

As said above this is the EAMT effects

Ah fair enough I know some of the effects and the lag of the SSW but didn’t know it isn’t an official SSW yet thanks for clearing this up either way a few fascinating few days of model watching coming up !

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Ah fair enough I know some of the effects and the lag of the SSW but didn’t know it isn’t an official SSW yet thanks for clearing this up either way a few fascinating few days of model watching coming up !

No worries if anything it gets you excited at the fact were producing these charts before a ssw! Imagine that day 10 chart then as reverse zonality kicks in the vortex from russia starts heading our way!! Its entirely possible!

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

GFS suggesting split on/around 15th Jan

Yes thats right but we have an official displacement ssw on the 5th that will send zonal winds negative. All the split will do is extend the length of time the vortex is on its knees giving potentially anither 2 or 3 weeks of wintry weather 

[IDO]

The gefs main cluster of a trough dropping over the Uk in the d8-10 range is the consensus now, so we may be seeing the road map better? The d10 gefs are now solid in this regard:

 d10 spread>

Looking at those that have that solution, nearly all, we now are tightening up on how that falls? The d10 spread highlights the variation zone and the ens have some corkers similar to ecm so although that looks the best case scenario, it is a possibility?

Post-d10 the gefs from the last few days have suggested the current option will kill the blocking and flatten out our sector. This is predictable due to the tPV leaking away from the Asia/Pacific side through Siberia. By d13 the 0z gefs confirming what they have been showing the last day or so:

 London>

Obviously well into FI and other background signals so all subject to change. The ens 850s for London still are stubborn at getting us below that -10c number and the mean remains rather tame, stuck at -5c or less. Hopefully we can get a few snowy days out of this IMBY?

[Blessed Weather]

Folk wanting to learn more about the stratosphere and a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) may wish to read the excellent introduction to the 2015 Strat thread written by Chionomaniac:

 

[DanDorsetUK]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

No worries if anything it gets you excited at the fact were producing these charts before a ssw! Imagine that day 10 chart then as reverse zonality kicks in the vortex from russia starts heading our way!! Its entirely possible!

I'm pretty confident that's what will happen down the line. All seems to be slowly maneuvering to that scenario.

[Penrith Snow]

48 minutes ago, KTtom said:

What a chart from ECM day 9! Strong negative AO, and whos nicked the vortex? Whilst specifics will change, the sypnotic pattern is stunning! Day 10 also a belter, even has some 'exceptionally cold' air on our doorstep! 

 

.Dear me, that is a good old fashion 1960’s chart with the easterly air now sourced over Russia rather than the eastern Med. stunning output really

[Tim Bland]

A better ECM for snow prospects this morning. Still some rain from the east Mon / Tues, but by Weds it’s turning to snow over the hills and by Friday there’s snow coming from the north.   Still hopeful for another upgrade to lower those temps enough to make early next week a snow fest for the east...

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS mean 240!!!!

[JoeShmoe]

Just looking at those NH charts, Japan must be having a seriously cold spell ?