Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

At least there’s no messing around on the pub run, I’ll take this over the shoddy 12z run any day.

Aye miles better, settle for a warmer wet day on Wed, if we're guaranteed this after

[snowice]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

So much better than the 12Z

 

What is  it with the pub run always the best!

Edited December 30, 2020 by snowice

[Eskimo]

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

You got the snow charts for between 96 and 168 hours mate?

Looks a bit marginal

[blizzard81]

Amazing consistency from the gfs parallel. 

[ICE COLD]

Hope this is the way forward on the 18 because it’s stunning 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It then loses the plot after that - for me at least. Any coincidence this plot loss occurs within 24 hours of the predicted SSW reversal? Maybe...maybe not.... 

I do think that low looks somewhat overly done, though to be fair we've already seen some pretty mean lows diving SW this month, stronger than I'd normally expect so maybe its not totally impossible?

The GEM also shows what could happen if we get unlucky, ridging everywhere but the one place we don't want a upper low, just south of Greenland!

[SMU]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Amazing consistency from the gfs parallel. 

Amazingly wrong. The cut point is going to be to far west....

Anyway ignoring the inter run detail of the 120-144 timeline the 18z GFS delivers some widespread snowfalls courtesy of some deep cold polar air pushing south

lets have some of that!!

[Allseasons-Si]

I sense a rinse and repeat of the pattern that we are having this week and we still can't have those true easterlies from Siberia lol

at day ten

although it's a lot better.

[radiohead]

That's a snow chart

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Looks a bit marginal

Looks pretty darn good mate!!only question mark is wednesday!!!

[Griff]

Can't possibly go wrong @Steve Murr

P

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Amazingly wrong. The cut point is going to be to far west....

Anyway ignoring the inter run detail of the 120-144 timeline the 18z GFS delivers some widespread snowfalls courtesy of some deep cold polar air pushing south

lets have some of that!!

Wouldn't you expect the upgraded parallel to have the edge on its predecessor? 

[Allseasons-Si]

Now this is getting interesting as the high migrates west again.

[ALL ABOARD]

GFS is a great run so far. 

Here comes the siberian express as well to finish the run off. 

Choo choo.. 

 

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Wouldn't you expect the upgraded parallel to have the edge on its predecessor? 

Not always .... 

Im comparing the evolution with UKMO

The good news here is the PV is broken & the jet will be non existent so that greenland high is looking very likely...

Edited December 30, 2020 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Amazingly wrong. The cut point is going to be to far west....

Lets hope so Steve. Normally these types of things go eastwards over time, but it would be utterly typical if just for once the models like para GFS are right. 

What appears likely at this point is some sort of cut low will come SSW again, we've seen the twice already this year so its clearly a pattern that has some legs to it.

We DON'T want it to our west again, otherwise we'll flush away what cold we have and reintroduce milder air from Europe, at least in terms of 850hpa profile again and again we will be looking for reintroducion of cold air, which frankly has been hard to come by as we are sadly going to find out from this relatively mild easterly.

Edited December 30, 2020 by kold weather

[SMU]

Just now, ALL ABOARD said:

GFS is a great run so far. 

Here comes the siberian express as well to finish the run off. 

Choo choo.. 

 

All within a west based NAO as well there...

[Allseasons-Si]

I know it is just for fun but watch this low over N Greenland drop south.

[Griff]

GFSP is taking the very long route to the real cold... 

As per @kold weather

Edited December 30, 2020 by Griff

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I know it is just for fun but watch this low over N Greenland drop south.

Yes should open the floodgates again. 

And as Steve pointed out, this is the best case of a West based NAO. 

All roads lead to ermmmmmm? 

[kold weather]

A west based -ve NAO doesn't have to necessarily be a disaster, alot really depends on just how active the Atlantic is and the start of the southerly running jet.

The patter is very devoid of any major activity so its just a case of hoping that there isn't a poorly timed strong LP out in the atlantic. If its jut a weak wave train we will probably get away with a west based -ve NAO for a time.

[Mike Poole]

This keeps happening doesn’t it?  

You’d think this sort of thing wasn’t possible based on last few winters.  GFS T282:

Love the eyes in the snowy ghost looking down on us. It’s coming...

[Scott Ingham]

15 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

 

Absolutely

Similar in 2013 - the period leading up to the event is where the main stress occurs - after the event, they tend to settle on a pattern.

Bit like throwing a pack of cards in the air. At the moment they are in mid air - when they land, we will see if the Aces are face up!

Yeah they tend to go from absolute model chaos to counting down like clockwork once the models get set on the right path

[Uncertainty]

Jackpot!

No easy Atlantic comeback here. 

One of the best 8-12 day runs I’ve seen.

Obviously it’s total twaddle, but it’s beautiful nonetheless!

The evolution of the trough dropping down from the North has been the theme of the day.

Personally I would take GFS18z >Para12z>ECM12z>Para18z (urgh)>GFS12z>GEM12z. 

Seeing how different the above evolutions are we still haven’t got a scooby what the trough will do but having it dropping down is more likely than before...