Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[sebastiaan1973]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a sorry state of affairs when a beautiful Easterly returns positive dews in mid Winter...

So cruel for coldies.

You just couldn't make our luck up 

EC plume for De Bilt. It's hard for me, to be positive about this chart. Not good enough for our beloved skating.

[Cloud 10]

Amazing day 10 mean from the ECM,with the PV kicked waaaay...off its perch.

 

No wonder the Atlantic has gone AWOL.

 

[iceman1991]

It’s alright guys be winter wonder land charts tomorrow don’t you worry

[Jason M]

50 minutes ago, Essexfish said:

Specifically mentions what the models are picking up and explains why next week is likely to be cold and wet rather than cold and white.

It’s almost like the presenter has been reading this thread. Nobody should be allowed to post in here until they confirm they have listened to and understood this video. It might save a lot of anguish over the next week or so,

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

The simple answer is that if that happened we’d just get colder, slowly - home grown, if you like.  

Indeed, and that'll be what is most interesting about this winter. Not much historical data on this type of setup. 

But in order to get things moving some initial injection of cold is important, without it...well its uphill for memorable snow...maritime cold pools easily diluted...

[Snowjokes92]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This from weather is cool is a thing of beauty for cold weather fans

Did someone decide to just switch the stratosphere off this year. That chart on the left shows quite a lot of blues and purples, especially between 10hpa and 30hpa and even the troposphere has little if any zonal wind, averaging if anything slightly easterly on average throughout.

As for the anomaly chart on the right it is a case of spot the above average spot. It is very hard to spot but there's one tiny little speck on the chart at the very bottom between 3rd and 4th January. We should be seeing a 1963 winter with these kinds of anomalies

This chart also makes very good viewing too. GFS, CFS and Bias corrected all well below average for some time to come and if this comes off then by the time we get zonal winds back up to average winter is over anyway. Looking good so we have to hope nothing else spoils it for us

 Is that a ramp?!  all looking good to me so far. Not reading too much into past 120-144 hours as they go very volatile. Understandable with all the goings on with the strat. I remember the same in February 2018 before the incoming SSW occured in real time. Or it might have been when it came into close range. Can't remember. Models dont do well when its comes to SSW in my opinion. Not to mention the other things happening in the strat. Thats when you see the huge swings from run to run. You know something is brewing, just when ?

[Singularity]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Eps day 15 aren’t a million miles away from the phase 4 ........

There's a fair point hidden behind that; I said no activity from ECM but EPS have a wide spread with a fair few members featuring phase 3-4 activity. Given how much of an anomalous trough to our west that corresponds to by phase 4, no wonder it can be detected in the mean and spread.

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Lol I understand your pessimism. I think many will get the snow they crave for. Possibly sooner than they think. This chart coincides with my birthday. What a birthday that would be. I have lived in west yorks all my life and I can count on the fingers of one hand how many of my birthdays have seen a flake of snow. And I was born in the early 70's. Just shows how abysmal our winters have been in the last 4 to 5 decades. I am very hopeful for this one though. 

If the chart above should come to pass, please don't expect to receive a card from the freshly retitled 'Man Without Beard'.

[iceman1991]

14 minutes ago, Jason M said:

It’s almost like the presenter has been reading this thread. Nobody should be allowed to post in here until they confirm they have listened to and understood this video. It might save a lot of anguish over the next week or so,

So Next week not much wintry weather about just very fresh and wet not white seems like will be after next Friday when might be some cold weather

[Updated_Weather]

59 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Ho Anthony burden How reliable is this guy about outcomes ? 

He works for MetO if you didn’t know

[Penrith Snow]

1 hour ago, Essexfish said:

Specifically mentions what the models are picking up and explains why next week is likely to be cold and wet rather than cold and white.

Superb summary and some excellent meteorology, nice to the the official  MetO take as its still the best forecasting organisation in the world. Where was this clip taken from? Could you please post a link? Cheers

[bluearmy]

there’s your problem ....

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Looked at individual ensembles on ECM for the UK D10, and they suggest the UK will be a pinch point - many runs with low pressure close to the UK, but some east, some west, some north, some south, some on top of us. Most retain below average temps at this point and some get into the minus 8-12C uppers range. A bit chaotic really. Safest to say we'll have an easterly until D6 or D7 and then some sort of convergence of weather sources. Definitely not dry, and cold still favoured but by no means guaranteed.

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there’s your problem ....

 

 

Now to see if we can solve it.., we really are just a smidge away from more appealing uppers and dews next week. I’m not even asking for an injection of cold [ for now ]  I think at this time of year if we can reduce the med influence a tad we will gain the couple of points we need by in situ cooling.. 

I’ll be looking for a sharper inflection point on 18z some call it a kink over eastern Poland around 96.. still possible we could have that change at 96.

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there’s your problem ....

 

 

Perhaps we should set up a ‘DP watch thread’ Luton is about 200m asl so we are way off for most in the south east. Let’s hope those parameters that Steve M posted earlier come into play so they are reduced !

[Mike Poole]

As we go further into this strange world of nothingness Groundhog Day:

It is probably worth looking at the ECM ensembles.  A bit.  Because it is all going the same way, T240:

If you think this isn’t good, here’s last year on the forthcoming SSW day, 5/1:

Happy new year, and have a good February 2nd too, hope it doesn’t last too long...

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Nath]

43 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Amazing day 10 mean from the ECM,with the PV kicked waaaay...off its perch.

 

No wonder the Atlantic has gone AWOL.

 

If we cant get a proper cold/severe spell with the PV so displaced, then we will never get one, especially in January which is as rare as hens teeth!!

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

GLOSEA is showing a strong SPV reversal with u-winds not really recovering until the end of January.

Slowly slowly..

 

That’s a 14 day reversal. And 6 days of substantial reversal. I don’t believe NWP will read the impacts of this well. Expect a lot of model volatility in the days ahead.

[Jason M]

16 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

So Next week not much wintry weather about just very fresh and wet not white seems like will be after next Friday when might be some cold weather

I wouldn’t say no wintry weather, but certainly more wet than white. Rain and sleet but with the threat of some snow in the mix but he did highlight that a small tweak in the source of the airflow can lead to different results with some prospect of colder air in the mix later next week albeit with low confidence. A really good video I thought and as it’s direct from the met office maybe people will pay attention. More than most places in the world our weather is governed by the interaction of different air masses and if people don’t understand the properties of these different air masses they have zero chance of reading the current output correctly. Where it’s currently so complex is that the airmass we are dealing with is modified so it doesn’t completely fit what we would normally see. 

it’s not a bad outlook by any means and not worth looking ahead more than 7 days at present as the SSW is possibly causing the mess we are seeing in the output beyond that timeframe.

[cyclonic happiness]

6 minutes ago, Nath said:

If we cant get a proper cold/severe spell with the PV so displaced, then we will never get one, especially in January which is as rare as hens teeth!!

We'll be fine. it'll upgrade nearer the time, and we've already had two snow events with the most stupidly marginal dew points and uppers. and next week should be colder.

there is no prolonged severe spell in the offing, but a prolonged 'marginal for snowfall' spell.

Also we've done much better than last year's ZERO snow

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

That’s a 14 day reversal. And 6 days of substantial reversal. I don’t believe NWP will read the impacts of this well. Expect a lot of model volatility in the days ahead.

Remember the volatitlity leading up to 2018s mwmorable spell... i dont think this forum is going to cope well with the next 2-6 weeks!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

That’s a 14 day reversal. And 6 days of substantial reversal. I don’t believe NWP will read the impacts of this well. Expect a lot of model volatility in the days ahead.

you’d have to think so .....

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Remember the volatitlity leading up to 2018s mwmorable spell... i dont think this forum is going to cope well with the next 2-6 weeks!

Funnily enough (and I may be remembering wrongly) I actually thought the models did brilliantly with the 2018 cold spell. I think the general point about model chaos is spot on though. By day 10 the GEFS are all over the place.

[fromey]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Remember the volatitlity leading up to 2018s mwmorable spell... i dont think this forum is going to cope well with the next 2-6 weeks!

Funny you should say that, I have just gone back to the 2018  BFTE thread in the archives, it is literally the same!Except the  arguments were over the high being to Far East or it was to saggy on the bottom or “it’s drawing in winds from the Med” and I think I read about the North Sea temp as well.

it’s like deja vu

[TSNWK]

If I recall the effect from 2018 SSW kept being pushed back with the added pressure of it being end of season... 

can anyone recall when the 2018 SSW event occurred please

Edited December 30, 2020 by TSNWK