Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

Right, I’m calling this.  I’ve seen it on enough op runs now.  There is nothing in the western part of the hemisphere to bring rubbish Atlantic weather and everything going for for the cold to slide down from here...

I thought you'd posted the GFSP again  

There's seems to be consistency developing.... 

[DEYS(Kent)]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

So ecm has precip across se england from day 5 to day 7. Uppers vary between -4 and -7. Lowest thicknesses only 526dam.  Not a flake 

that’s directed at those posters who think it’s only about the uppers and that -5/-7 with a flow off the n sea will deliver snowfall ....its way more complicated than that 

Living on the Kent Coast I can confirm this...

[Kasim Awan]

192h is a snow party

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I thought you'd posted the GFSP again  

There's seems to be consistency developing.... 

Yes I believe we have a phase off

[SLEETY]

Ecm on the money and where UKMO was heading, forget this tepid easterly for this time of year, can you believe it, and let's get a proper maritime Artic Northerly in instead straight from the Pole

[chris55]

Beautiful 192 from EC, look how far south the 0C isotherm is! With the cold ready to spill out from the north.

[Continental Climate]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

192h. Looks great!

If I was very picky I would want everything about 150 mes further east. Good looking chart nevertheless 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So ecm has precip across se england from day 5 to day 7. Uppers vary between -4 and -7. Lowest thicknesses only 526dam.  Not a flake 

that’s directed at those posters who think it’s only about the uppers and that -5/-7 with a flow off the n sea will deliver snowfall ....its way more complicated than that 

That would be a terrible waste of the mid Winter synoptics on offer.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

192h is a snow party

Where ?
 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

192h is a snow party

According to @bluearmy, it’s a rain party.

[Mike Poole]

And the vortex still screams at T192, but now bizarrely has cat’s ears.  2020 really is a weird year.

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

If I was very picky I would want everything about 150 mes further east. Good looking chart nevertheless 

Yeah thats what I'm thinking, that would be perfection. But beggars can't be choosers I will take what it has on offer lol

[Allseasons-Si]

Can i come in

ECM at 192,....OH YES!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Anyone not loving this as a coldie needs their heads read , cold easterlies with -6/7 uppers - late Dec . No real sign of a breakdown and a SSW imminent . Yes it’s no beast from the east and not all will get snow, but most are getting harsh frosts and it’s better than wind and rain from the SW.

Everyone would have took this chart a few weeks back

It's becoming a little tedious for me. This feels a little like the pandemic, hope on the horizon but never seemingly getting closer. 

I want proper snow, inches not a crappy dusting from a front dying on its bottom!

[moorlander]

Oh come on peeps, enough of the grinch posts. NO it's  not minus whatever at 2m NO it's not minus 10 at 850ha.

But IT IS the best potential winter for yonks.

Cant we all just enjoy the ride, please.

 

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

That would be a terrible waste of the mid Winter synoptics on offer.

Agreed but it is the truth nonetheless the uppers are too high for widespread snow, and a waste of great looking charts ..

[bluearmy]

And the snow and precip totals by day 8 tell their own sorry tale for much of the country - you’d think we’d be buried !!

   

[Tim Bland]

Rain rain and more rain next week on the ECM next week unless you are on very high ground. Just need those DPs to 1c lower I reckon and eastern areas would be buried ! Sorry BA we were typing at the same time...both thinking the same thing ?

Edited December 30, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Northernsnow]

Long time lurker of this cracking forum. So finally taken the plunge to sign up. What a fabulous chart this is. I look forward to seeing we’re we are going these next few weeks. Lots of cold and snow ahead I feel. 

[Harsh Climate]

7 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

If I was very picky I would want everything about 150 mes further east. Good looking chart nevertheless 

Just imagine if the centre of that low north west of Ireland was positioned over London

Edited December 30, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

According to @bluearmy, it’s a rain party.

Yeah there isn't settling snow of note, though thats not to say it won't be snowing by that time as Thursday does see the whole atmosphere start to cool down as lower thickness and lower uppers start to crawl down from the north.

Big low coming through at 216hrs, quite rapid strengthening. Lets hope it can get far enough SE, I'm not convinced.

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

According to @bluearmy, it’s a rain party.

It's a good evolution for wintry conditions.

P S. it was an IMBY post.

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM At 216 would be cold under that slack flow,day ten should be a snow maker with that low disrupting south.

[Mike Poole]

This was what I meant earlier when i talked about a Greenland plus high:

ECM T216, who knows how it will pan out, or if it will even happen

[Sweatyman]

7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Beautiful 192 from EC, look how far south the 0C isotherm is! With the cold ready to spill out from the north.

I'm sure there will be something 'wrong' with it