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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Not happy with the gfs!!!not as good as the 06z run!!i mentioned this earlier cant ignore it!!high slowly flattening as well!!!over to you ecm!!ukmo good!!!

Looks good to me maybe not as snowy for SE I actually prefer this evolution to 06z it’s slower but doing the same thing seemingly.

 

C3399C61-9637-4DBD-AE95-9A85A4771422.thumb.png.4024bae4a81d860c74f2e71f9e5155df.png054DD642-E43B-4FE9-BB52-DC29DB2D7B3C.thumb.png.02951a332f0cb0f338ff1302f424e886.png

 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Not happy with the gfs!!!not as good as the 06z run!!i mentioned this earlier cant ignore it!!high slowly flattening as well!!!over to you ecm!!ukmo good!!!

I agree. Did not really like this GFS at all -10 uppers is my threshold and you can see we are way off on this chart with little upstream or anywhere near where we might have been able to hope for some changes in the detail working in our favour.

image.thumb.png.c56bacb95db64324c9e78638b46dc3a4.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
Just now, Daniel* said:

Looks good to me maybe not as snowy for SE I actually prefer this evolution to 06z it’s slower but doing the same thing seemingly.

 

C3399C61-9637-4DBD-AE95-9A85A4771422.thumb.png.4024bae4a81d860c74f2e71f9e5155df.png054DD642-E43B-4FE9-BB52-DC29DB2D7B3C.thumb.png.02951a332f0cb0f338ff1302f424e886.png

 

Now what are the chances ecm brings out a barnstormer of a run!!!!!gfs looks okay at that.time frame!!

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andy989 Rising Star

andy989

Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

Models are volatile for sure ATM. From an IMBY perspective I've been lamppost watching for nearly a week now with rewarding results.  This is today's window viewing, hoping all of you can get this soon. 

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More wet than white I think .... just a couple degrees short of nirvana !! 

Whys it show snow then??

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GFS just now T180 getting near to where the UKMO was at T144:

7DAED221-E251-4A41-8BE9-0D1D66E56D43.thumb.jpeg.962080fb1bfb11325b07c4d20619e194.jpeg7DDDBA5F-B032-4ABB-A457-D867C8D0BA45.thumb.gif.cdbdb66b1307ce78d71738c2ec888ec0.gif

The reason - too many shortwaves and complicating features on GFS, one complicating feature still remains, circled.  The main driver seems the same - towards a Greenland plus high, by which I mean heights extend further north (I mean north on a Meteociel chart not true north!) than Greenland, we’ve seen it on a number of runs lately, but the models have different ways of getting there.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS just now T180 getting near to where the UKMO was at T144:

7DAED221-E251-4A41-8BE9-0D1D66E56D43.thumb.jpeg.962080fb1bfb11325b07c4d20619e194.jpeg7DDDBA5F-B032-4ABB-A457-D867C8D0BA45.thumb.gif.cdbdb66b1307ce78d71738c2ec888ec0.gif

The reason - too many shortwaves and complicating features on GFS, one complicating feature still remains, circled.  The main driver seems the same - towards a Greenland plus high, by which I mean heights extend further north than Greenland, we’ve seen it on a number of runs lately, but the models have different ways of getting there.  

GFSP looks for the goods from the north not the east too, 162

gfsnh-0-162 (3).png

Edited by Griff
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
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Posted (edited)

The advection-snow coversion for southern England, is eye watering!! Some drag flow- and possibly build ups are surpassed.. and no not because I live there.. because simply that’s how it’s looking.. and gaining as we roll....   the overall picture also looks potentially very wintry  @cross board... keep watching

C5CC6206-703A-4AD0-BDCE-2624EE3431CA.png

F843A85E-23BE-4736-96E6-EE74223E47E1.png

936331C3-3497-43CA-A143-42E9A8F89517.png

Edited by tight isobar
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pureasthedriven Aficionado

pureasthedriven

Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
Posted
52 minutes ago, AWD said:

I assume that because a fair few models have the "easterly" next week actually bringing air sourced from SE Europe rather than the preferable NE, thus slowly mixing out the coldish upper level air we currently have over the next few days?

I imagine we won't notice much difference at the surface though, still nippy like this week.

Yes, not without irony, could actually be a touch less cold next week... 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSP looks for the goods from the north not the east too, 162

gfsnh-0-162 (3).png

Gfs has gone towards the ecm from this morning!!!gfs p almost certainly has and looks like ukmo!!am happy with that!!!!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSP looks for the goods from the north not the east too, 162

gfsnh-0-162 (3).png

Yes, the GFS // looking to go with the UKMO solution, I’m sure the GFS // will be a better model to follow due its increased vertical resolution over the op GFS during the next week or two, because of the big time stuff going on in the strat.  GFS // T180:

37CA6C84-DAE2-4E3A-A18D-D7C6F18D7F5D.thumb.png.f6f22b8c5363ab8c17a2863d6763fb9b.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Whys it show snow then??

It doesn’t really .... the really light stuff is snow but once the heavier precip moves in on gfs it’s rain 

Waiting for gfsp high res to update as looks better days 5/6

Edited by bluearmy
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Bring back the W based - NAO 

gfsnh-0-246.png?12

 

Left a bit, right a bit...

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

Ultimately this run isn’t much different to 06z this will probably give a better outcome ridge sinking south but a legacy of heights left near Greenland. 

5DC5A1A0-1C23-4477-A286-1C6B2D8D9808.thumb.png.708d20126dcb80b255939659b89c8b3c.png4B7B2659-A1AE-47B0-843E-074D00D75124.thumb.png.e83dce5485c03b58c43467529b3fff8d.png

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

You can see the difference with the GFS 12z and 06z as Mike Poole comments...makes more of a feature of that circled shortwave and less WAA up towards Greenland as a result and the resulting HP stays at a lower latitude, probably be different next run.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Seems to be showing some consistency on GFSP 

gfsnh-0-180 (3).png

gfsnh-1-180.png

Edit: great minds... 

Looks like it could all go wrong so quickly that I'd rather avoid it entirely. A lot of water would need to go under the bridge to get some covective uppers going, cold yes but we could do better.

image.thumb.png.2e7fda52d3ecb4c6230a047b42855577.png

Edited by Snowman.
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

What are the 850s looking like between 72 and 168 hours on gfs and gfs p?!!ukmo looks good for snow throughout!

Might need a boat rather than a sledge from the thames streamer...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

LOL GEM has really gone and run with the UKMO idea, here T156:

14072831-FD28-42B0-86ED-CFAE6D754D4E.thumb.jpeg.0c5ea55c9f078b6f903f5c8430129dad.jpeg

Note for a ‘west-based -NAO’ to be a problem there would have to be a low to the SW of the block, otherwise it would be something different.

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

Again, in these runs the heights around Scandinavia are gaining influence. They are connected to the Russian high. At this rate there might not be a Northerly anymore by 12Z tomorrow, unless you're on a ship in the North Atlantic. And while I am typing this, the GFSP illustrates it at 192.


The cold could take a little detour around Scandi if the Russian high deflates a bit, like it showed on ECM 192-240 this morning. Risky, but in line with some of the expected SSW effects.

 

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

UKMO, GFS(p) and GEM all in fairly good agreement at t144. GFS is the odd one out now.

3B18D552-0D63-4287-9B8F-C5355CC73DC3.thumb.gif.670d4a6109d8c9dc1aaa01782c5dcd9e.gif3F257726-C27A-44EE-BE29-05BDAC29FE0D.thumb.png.ae801885a797a86d34a432ff284ed4f6.png92CED278-B7A0-4904-8C1D-F0BCFA927C47.thumb.png.bdab244543594f209c69ec36398101bb.pngC8D33DAF-7E90-435F-BFCB-05BCD99C4BD0.thumb.png.ffae7727cb2fc462bbfa7ae35ae65105.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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