Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Meanwhile, the operational GFS sits up in its own tree, humming a tune that we struggle to understand.

That really did make me laugh

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Jason H said:

Going based purely on that chart, precipitation away from the coasts will be of snow.

On what basis?...coastal waters in East Anglia are only slightly above normal (7-8c) if we get -7c 850 uppers or deeper then some coastal regions even have a chance.

[Froze were the Days]

12 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Meanwhile, the operational GFS sits up in its own tree, humming a tune that we struggle to understand.

Looked pretty middle of the pack (or slightly above) going by the 12z ensembles...unless I'm reading it wrong, but looks different from other models at around 120z or so with deepening that shortwave out west.

[Anthony Burden]

Still a lot to work out regarding the charts,we are all looking past the 144hrs to see if that 

Greenland high drops further south into the Atlantic or holds firm to the north of us.

let’s hope it remains to the north and low pressure systems track from the north down 

close enough to the east of us to produce the white stuff then Bingo.

[northwestsnow]

23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

rain risk on UKMO? havin' a laugh

Ssts well above average in the North Sea but away from the immediate coast and a little altitude should be OK, surely ?

Source of that air isn't the med !

[Snowman.]

27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

At the risk of sounding boring, at this stage it is still about setting up the general synoptics over the NH rather than what is forecast for the UK right now.  And it is taking time.  But it is still going in the right direction...

While I agree it does seem as many are losing patience (including myself to a degree) as ever I understand nothing in terms of a UK cold spell is a guarantee but to other members who have heard "moving in the right direction" several times over the past few day with proper cold always staying in the ensembles or at D10, you can begin to see members crack.

We have the easterly later this week sure, but its going to be a marginal affair especially those to the coast who would normally benefit the most from an easterly.

The best I have to display visually is the UKMO from its brilliant (maybe too good) 12z yesterday to todays. Still good but you can help but feel slightly disappointed in it still.

 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Anyone else got a headache?

Northerly, maybe an easterly, could be a westerly (NAO) or we could even end up with a southerly (if it all goes pete tong).

I usually feel relatively up to date on where we are going for the next week at least, but I'm really struggling. It feels like nobody really has a clue (especially the models). It will likely get colder, but who knows where from. 

[Singularity]

Something else to consider - GEFS forecast some MJO activity in phases 3-4 starting this weekend. That may be why we've seen a shift by them toward outcomes that don't position the ridge to our east very well - the phase 3 composite is a bit 'saggy bottomed' - and then develop a broad trough too close to our west.

EPS have no MJO activity to begin with.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Something else to consider - GEFS forecast some MJO activity in phases 3-4 starting this weekend. That may be why we've seen a shift by them toward outcomes that don't position the ridge to our east very well - the phase 3 composite is a bit 'saggy bottomed' - and then develop a broad trough too close to our west.

EPS have no MJO activity to begin with.

Eps day 15 aren’t a million miles away from the phase 4 ........

[Snowy L]

Not sure the North Sea is miles above average, looks slightly above at worst, maybe even slightly lower than average near Scotland.

Metcheck.com - Global Sea Surface Temperatures - SST and SST Anomalies - Updated every 6 hours.

WWW.METCHECK.COM

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Metcheck.com - Global Sea Surface Temperatures - SST and SST Anomalies - Updated every 6 hours.

Remember that region has had northerly winds too for the last few days, things may have changed since a few weeks ago.

[Battleground Snow]

Not sure if this is a new feature or not but GFS has hourly intervals on wetterzentrale now.

 

[Matt H]

FWIW the GEFS 12z has the mean at the coldest I’ve seen for a few runs in the extended range. Still a fair amount of scatter obviously but there’s also a cluster around -10C that wasn’t there earlier. Could turn out to mean nothing once things play out but all to play for still.

[Drifter]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Not sure if this is a new feature or not but GFS has hourly intervals on wetterzentrale now.

 

Jeez - as if I didn’t spend enough of my time already staring at weather models, they bring this out??

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Not sure if this is a new feature or not but GFS has hourly intervals on wetterzentrale now.

 

Cmon battleground hit me with a cool 72 and 96 hour chart from ecm

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Cmon battleground hit me with a cool 72 and 96 hour chart from ecm

96 looks better than ukmo to me - heights a little further North

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Cmon battleground hit me with a cool 72 and 96 hour chart from ecm

T96 looking pretty tasty shaky

[Daniel*]

Surely would see snow showers from this for Sunday... trough.

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

A snowy GEM run tonight. A relaxation of the cold towards day 10 but with no PV at all left in our local - I’d bet it will only be a temporary relaxation ... 

GEM was one of the worst at forecasting todays fail up to yesterday it consistently plastered The SE with snow IMO I won't be putting much faith in its snow charts for this region  unlike the likes of UKV Arome/Arpege even Icon which did much better

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 - and it is clean evolution like UKMO:

Which means it doesn’t have this that derailed the GFS:

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Surely would see snow showers from this for Sunday... trough.

ECM  screams wintry mix to me, maybe more of snow overnight but a sleety mixture during day time. Any heavy showers turn to snow but then back to sleety stuff.

In 05 and 06 we had several easterlys just like that and that was generally the way they went, snow overnight, sleety mixture during day. Very little accumulations during the day apart from at decent altitude. 

Suspect this is going to pan out very similar.

[SMU]

ECM annoyingly poor again - 

 

In reality we are talking fractions & fractional differences between the UKMO however these macro nuances make the difference of -5/-6 on the ECM & -7/-8 on UKMO

as highlighted 2 days ago we need a kink to the East not a bend.

UKMO kink

ECM bend.

pic from other day still stands re Kink

 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

GEM was one of the worst at forecasting todays fail up to yesterday it consistently plastered The SE with snow IMO I won't be putting much faith in its snow charts for this region  unlike the likes of UKV Arome/Arpege even Icon which did much better

As a short range precip model I agree but as a broad pattern model it has high verification stats at the moment, it’s up there with ECM and GFS. Don’t forget that ECM had huge dumping for the south(today)  a couple of days ago as well . 

[pureasthedriven]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Surely would see snow showers from this for Sunday... trough.

That looks classically marginal to me. Unbelievably annoying. 
 

Edit, should’ve read Steve and Kold’s post first, apologies. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by pureasthedriven

[Ice Day]

GFS v UKMO v ECM at 144

 

ECM almost the middle ground I'd say!

[Tim Bland]

ECM has uppers of -7 in the south east by Tuesday. Surely away from coasts this should be enough Haven’t seen DP though which was the problem on previous runs