Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Drifter]

ECM copying the 00z run so far?

[DEYS(Kent)]

No widespread snow from ECM this evening. However, can’t sniff at the trend..

 

[Mike Poole]

Not sure whether we are all on the same page with this, so to be clear I’m on the long term cold page rather than the immediate snow page, and ECM T144 looks to be following the UKMO here:

I’m looking forward to see where this goes, vortex decimation is likely but only the start.  

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mike Poole

[TSNWK]

Is there anything that could change at such short notice to improve the uppers by a couple points - there is no cold upstream that we might have had option to tap into this time.. how are colder uppers made, can they happen in situ as such and the models are not seeing that..

we just so darn close to a decent set up, I’m looking for anything to squeeze just a little more..

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Is there anything that could change at such short notice to improve the uppers by a couple points - there is no cold upstream that we might have had option to tap into this time.. how are colder uppers made, can they happen in situ as such and the models are not seeing that..

we just so darn close to a decent set up, I’m looking for anything to squeeze just a little more..

Well you could leave your fridge door open

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Climate Man]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Is there anything that could change at such short notice to improve the uppers by a couple points - there is no cold upstream that we might have had option to tap into this time.. how are colder uppers made, can they happen in situ as such and the models are not seeing that..

we just so darn close to a decent set up, I’m looking for anything to squeeze just a little more..

 Yes they can cool in situ and this may be the shortest route to improve marginality. 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

North sure whether we are all on the same page with this, so to be clear I’m on the long term cold page rather than the immediate snow page, and ECM T144 looks to be following the UKMO here:

I’m looking forward to see where this goes, vortex decimation is likely but only the start.  

My worry is the upper high sets-up too far west and therefore we end up with a flabby upper low dropping south somewhere to our north-west as the PV basically starts to fall apart.

That forces any nascent ridging that may try to form over the Atlantic southwards and we end up with a position seen in quite a few ensembles in recent days, with a flabby Atlantic low either to our west or north-west, higher pressure around Europe and a mean W/SW flow. You can have the most impressive upper pattern out there in the Arctic but if that sets up shop your in for a mighty struggle to dislodge it, especially with zonal winds now so low and little to shift the pattern once it sets in.

In a way I'm worried the SSW is actually going to prematurely kick us out what was morphing into a great set-up.

EDIT - we will likely get away with it for a time on the 12z ECM, but how long that holds?

Edited December 30, 2020 by kold weather

[Ali1977]

Anyone not loving this as a coldie needs their heads read , cold easterlies with -6/7 uppers - late Dec . No real sign of a breakdown and a SSW imminent . Yes it’s no beast from the east and not all will get snow, but most are getting harsh frosts and it’s better than wind and rain from the SW.

Everyone would have took this chart a few weeks back

[Cold Winter Night]

29 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Something else to consider - GEFS forecast some MJO activity in phases 3-4 starting this weekend. That may be why we've seen a shift by them toward outcomes that don't position the ridge to our east very well - the phase 3 composite is a bit 'saggy bottomed' - and then develop a broad trough too close to our west.

EPS have no MJO activity to begin with.

 

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps day 15 aren’t a million miles away from the phase 4 ........

The removal of heights in Russia and in the Atlantic would be quite a change, IF this would happen.

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is there anything that could change at such short notice to improve the uppers by a couple points - there is no cold upstream that we might have had option to tap into this time.. how are colder uppers made, can they happen in situ as such and the models are not seeing that..

we just so darn close to a decent set up, I’m looking for anything to squeeze just a little more..

Yes, we just need the air to be source md from direct east or north east. If you follow the isobars the air is currently sourced from Southern Europe...we want it central or East Europe. As Steve says only a slight change needed to put us in the game. At the moment I’m thinking sleet / rain under 100m and within 50 miles of coast. Elsewhere it’s too close to call ...prob snow if showers are heavy enough. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Tim Bland

[northwestsnow]

Like it !168)...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Do I detect a little anxiety in the forum!! These are exciting time folks,regardless of what the current outputs are throwing out..if you think they are confused right now,just wait for later next week when they cater the SSW into account...there are gonna be some wild and crazy runs I can tell ya. Some of the ens now showing some much better cold shots,but I expect things to gradually get better...we are Still in a cold snap,and even here we still have lying snow...2 days running...wow,thats an achievement in itself.

Ok folks New Years eve may be cancelled for gatherings thus year,but I'm sure the Government will.allow you 2 close friends....namely..JONNNY WALKER,AND JACK DANIELS...go on indulge a little,you have earned it...and let's make a toast to better days,and snow charts galore..

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Like it !168)...

More accurate resolvement of the next wave. Corker run coming up.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

Right, I’m calling this.  I’ve seen it on enough op runs now.  There is nothing in the western part of the hemisphere to bring rubbish Atlantic weather and everything going for for the cold to slide down from here...

[Continental Climate]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Anyone not loving this as a coldie needs their heads read , cold easterlies with -6/7 uppers - late Dec . No real sign of a breakdown and a SSW imminent . Yes it’s no beast from the east and not all will get snow, but most are getting harsh frosts and it’s better than wind and rain from the SW.

Everyone would have took this chart a few weeks back

The thing I like about that chart is the vortex and the cold draining out of Canada and the CONUS and transferring to the Eastern hemisphere. I do believe we are onto something very special this winter. 

[chris55]

13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T96 looking pretty tasty shaky

I know we are getting a lot of talk about 850s not being cold enough for convective snowfall from the North Sea, this is mainly for those in the south east (lots of people live there obviously lol). However for the rest of us surely these sort of 850 temps will be perfectly adequate for inland snowfall!

Of course we will need troughs and features to produce the ppn, but if that happens (and the EC looks quite kinky, with the high well north) then it looks potentially white rather than wet for many inland. 
 

We have seen some snow this week, although a bit slushy, and that has been from polar maritime airmass with 850s of -3C, surely an easterly airmass with 850s of -7-8C  will do the job. 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is there anything that could change at such short notice to improve the uppers by a couple points - there is no cold upstream that we might have had option to tap into this time.. how are colder uppers made, can they happen in situ as such and the models are not seeing that..

we just so darn close to a decent set up, I’m looking for anything to squeeze just a little more..

Dont think so.

The lack of proper cold uppers when we have amazing synoptics is the story of the winter so far.

I for one have been in a Northerly airstream for 4 or 5 days and the precipitation has been rain apart from one brief spell. 

If we can get a proper Northerly in 8-14 days time, and this looks possible,  we may all benefit.

[DEYS(Kent)]

ECM 168 looks interesting..

Trends..

[markw2680]

I think we are reading things too deeply with every single model and chart tbh, it’s all heading in the right direction especially if we only look upto 144 which I’d say is more than far enough. It’s cold with some wintry weather around which is a godsend after the last few winters for many of us

[kold weather]

12z ECM at 168hrs is light years away from the 12z GFS it has to be said.

Hopefully the driver low forming at 168hrs doesn't get stuck like it did on the 12z GEM which brough about a premature end to any cold set-up, and that it can get far enough south to give a length cold shot.

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm12z!!gona leave at that!!

[Ali1977]

That’s a great chart 

[Harsh Climate]

192h. Looks great!

[bluearmy]

So ecm has precip across se england from day 5 to day 7. Uppers vary between -4 and -7. Lowest thicknesses only 526dam.  Not a flake 

that’s directed at those posters who think it’s only about the uppers and that -5/-7 with a flow off the n sea will deliver snowfall ....its way more complicated than that 

[tight isobar]

I’m loving this ec run.. and the unorganised cell tinkering @greenland point.. creating a swerve flow... honestly we are going places . @ repercussions inbound!!!