Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Sky Full]

Is that a Murr sausage to the north, or are you just pleased to see me....?

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Gfs 18 144 last night 

Gfs 18 120 tonight 

so much better last night

It's the pub run, will end up more satisfactory!

Keep an eye on retrogression...

Edited December 30, 2020 by Griff

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think there will be more widespread snow than the models are showing off charts like this based on historical events in the past

 

 

That minus 8 upper is right over my house. Corresponding snowfall to prove it

[Geordiesnow]

39 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Remember the volatitlity leading up to 2018s mwmorable spell... i dont think this forum is going to cope well with the next 2-6 weeks!

Actually I seemed to recalled the effects of that SSW lead to consistent charts barring minor detail changes. The Beast from the east was certain to happen as the models was consistent with it. 

Anyways back to the models, then the UKMO is an improvement regarding the easterly, - 8 uppers hitting the east coast and even a hint of the - 10 uppers in the North Sea. Dissapointing ECM though but it shows why upper air temperatures are more important in a set up where there is wind around especially from the North Sea. 

Regardless, windchill over England especially is going to be felt so it will definately feel raw out there. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

 

Watch this video, it specifically shows the difference between next week and the BFTE set up 

This is brilliant. Thanks! Well not brilliant obviously but easy to understand.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs very much like the 18z ICON at 120 with height's opening up south of Greenland where as the 12z didn't.

net result forcing more of a trough E Greenland to come further south at 156.

 

[Sky Full]

Colder air continues to home in on the UK until the 6th January....

(GFS 18Z up to +150h)

Edited December 30, 2020 by Sky Full

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z gfs very much like the 18z ICON at 120 with height's opening up south of Greenland where as the 12z didn't.

net result forcing more of a trough E Greenland to come further south at 156.

 

Heights falling away faster in South East Europe too, floodgates from the North may open up earlier here

[Eskimo]

Could be a much better run this. High moving westward which should allow for a northerly. 


 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z gfs very much like the 18z ICON at 120 with height's opening up south of Greenland where as the 12z didn't.

net result forcing more of a trough E Greenland to come further south at 156.

 

Cold is coming from the north, and perhaps quicker! 

GFSP looks similar... 

[Allseasons-Si]

Steady as she goes,...174.

[ICE COLD]

I’ve changed my mind I like tonight’s run now . Could be a stonker here 

[Griff]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Steady as she goes,...174.

I love how the worse run has the better outcome!

 

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ECM called this initial cold spell right a few days ago unfortunately, HP too close by initially for many but it’s not the end of the world - it’s a fantastic starting point with a SSW still on our pockets.

I’d love to know what model the METO hide back from us, the MOGREPS must be very powerful as their forecast mentioned the HP cell being very close by when none of the models showed it.

 

FWIW, I quite like this GFS chart - absolutely primed.

What on earth?  That chart isn’t for 1 Jan for a start.  After, whatever MOGREPS might be saying, the ensembles we can see look like this a few days after SSW day,  I’ve posted them in NH view so that you can see the state of the vortex too, mean GEFS and ECM:

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Weathizard]

Can’t complain with this.

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Actually I seemed to recalled the effects of that SSW lead to consistent charts barring minor detail changes. The Beast from the east was certain to happen as the models was consistent with it. 

Anyways back to the models, then the UKMO is an improvement regarding the easterly, - 8 uppers hitting the east coast and even a hint of the - 10 uppers in the North Sea. Dissapointing ECM though but it shows why upper air temperatures are more important in a set up where there is wind around especially from the North Sea. 

Regardless, windchill over England especially is going to be felt so it will definately feel raw out there. 

It was consistent from the moment it modelling the beast which was 2 weeks after the ssw but the charts leading up to modelling that were all over the place. 

Youll see if you go on the forum archive it was mayhem!

[Battleground Snow]

God bless the pub run! Not too far out in FI now.

 

[radiohead]

Some frustrating less cold air introducing rain on Wednesday but looks like we will tap into cold from the north on this run shortly after...

 

 

[Griff]

GFSP is going up! 

[Cold Winter]

18z about to give us a stonking northerly that’ll no doubt be gone by morning 

[Allseasons-Si]

Steady as she goes,...part 2

incoming at 186.

[Eskimo]

GFS comes back to the idea of the northerly around day 8. Could the GFS just be struggling to work out the finer details? The northerly has come back multiple times now. 


 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter said:

18z about to give us a stonking northerly that’ll no doubt be gone by morning 

Hard to argue against that from past experience

[ICE COLD]

Yep I want this one

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

It was consistent from the moment it modelling the beast which was 2 weeks after the ssw but the charts leading up to modelling that were all over the place. 

Youll see if you go on the forum archive it was mayhem!

I've no doubt about that as not every SSW leads to a cold spell for the UK but in fairness once the BFTE was nailed, the models were very consistent which made a nice change

GFS 18Z is okay for the easterly but the lack of significant cold uppers means when something more prolonged comes along, it's easier to create that infamous milder sector so instead of snow, it's wet. Higher ground should do pretty good though regardless of uppers so all is not lost.