Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

With better wintry precip potential (less southerly sourced air flow prior to this timeframe) lessening the mixing out of the cold over us?

There is definitely wintry potential from the easterly. Uppers seem to have been resolved to slightly colder values.

The evolution beyond 160h on the GFS is very good, although not bfte level. Hopefully this is not misinterpreted as a poor run. Ultimately the GFS will have it's own ideas, whilst retaining consistency for sharp retrogression & trough disruption around D7. This route now highly supported, and would most likely produce very wintry surface conditions.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

My interpretation of this is that it is extremely good. Almost a complete zonal reversal at the surface through the Atlantic Northern Hemisphere. The GFS has bias for Azores energy so this may be overdone, however in the model bias logic it has more credibility with Greenland retrogression so it's support for the retrogression is valued.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Howie]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

My interpretation of this is that it is extremely good. Almost a complete zonal reversal at the surface through the Atlantic Northern Hemisphere. The GFS has bias for Azores energy so this may be overdone, however in the model bias logic it has more credibility with Greenland retrogression so it's support is valued.

There's been quite a signal to build Iberian heights, I hope that's completely wrong 

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, Howie said:

There's been quite a signal to build Iberian heights, I hope that's completely wrong 

It's because the retrogression to Greenland here is not very optimal & keeps too much HP over Iberia. It a limiting factor somewhat, however I'd probably guage that given the great background signal, a trend for this to undergo more optimal retrogression in new output is possible.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[londonblizzard]

Slightly colder uppers for next week's easterly in the 0z.

Things then get pretty ridic :

[Mr snowman 2018]

8 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Slightly colder uppers for next week's easterly in the 0z.

Things then get pretty ridic :

That will be the SSW finally coming into the models which is also showing a perfect split wether or not that happens is a different question don’t expect anything to be too excited about until around the 9th of January onwards 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Mr snowman 2018
Spelling mistake

[Weather-history]

Look at that for a mean chart at the end of the first of week in January

And this is what it was like at the same date this year

 

[That ECM]

T144 all 3. Fascinating but not as fascinating as watching and reading in here. 

 

Go back a couple of months  and think of any of these as the starting point. Genuinely from coldies POV who would have said no thanks?

[That ECM]

JFF. 

Edited December 31, 2020 by That ECM

[swfc]

Morning. Seems a bit subdued on here looking at the threads. Looking across the board it does seem a complicated outlook esp period post 144hr.in the reliable the snow chances seem to be more restricted to high ground on the latest forecast. Bit confused tbh but to me all looks up for grabs

[Cheshire Freeze]

Models seem to be converging around days 8/9 now. 

Trop looks like it's going into reversal mode.

[Mr snowman 2018]

I think the gfs is broken this morning

[KTtom]

What a chart from ECM day 9! Strong negative AO, and whos nicked the vortex? Whilst specifics will change, the sypnotic pattern is stunning! Day 10 also a belter, even has some 'exceptionally cold' air on our doorstep! 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by KTtom

[swfc]

Ec looks pretty good to me. Blocking to the north and west, good 850s and low pressure sinking over UK

[mountain shadow]

Very good model runs overnight with reverse zonality the order of the day.

Cold and getting colder, much colder.

Edited December 31, 2020 by mountain shadow

[Ali1977]

What on earth are you doing to us ECM, day 10 is an absolute beauty!!

If this happens I think we should be thinking about the word HISTORIC!! However it is day 10, so let’s keep that in mind.

 

Closer to the here and now , this could produce some snow off the North Sea - -6/-8 uppers , or are the other perimeters not conducive??

Dew point and DAM look ok.

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Ali1977

[cyclonic happiness]

Considering the outlook, (which is stunning compared to last year) I can't understand why there is a lack of interest this morning?

Everything is still very much in place for a good cold spell, the snow detail is a sticking point, but when isn't it?

It's a new year tomorrow and we should all go into it trying to be optimistic and forward looking....let's forget this awful year and make the best of what we have :-)

 

Happy New Year Netweather 

[radiohead]

ECM ends on a great Day 10, and the days following this would only get better

 

The frustration is that once again we are chasing the really good stuff at Day 9/10 while the short and medium term becomes more diluted and less interesting. And we all know Day 9/10 is highly likely to change before we get anywhere near it. That being said, it's great to have something like this to chase!

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

ECM ends on a great Day 10, and the days following this would only get better

 

The frustration is that once again we are chasing the really good stuff at Day 9/10 while the short and medium term becomes more diluted and less interesting. And we all know Day 9/10 is highly likely to change before we get anywhere near it. That being said, it's great to have something like this to chase!

At T144 we are seeing some similarities in the output. IF this continues then the rest will follow. Interest has gone up a notch or two for me. 

[dragan]

indeed i think the ‘cold’ interest in next weeks is done, it will be slightly colder than average, with a bit of wintryness.

It seems day 9ish onward is where any deep cold COULD lie, ecm makes for interesting viewing if it’s cold you want in the latter stages.

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, swfc said:

Ec looks pretty good to me. Blocking to the north and west, good 850s and low pressure sinking over UK

Blocking to the north.....you ain’t wrong there

[Matt H]

ECM at day 10 is easily my favourite chart of the morning, what a stonker! Albeit at day 10 but at least there seems to be more consistency between the models on the general evolution this morning. We would’ve done anything for charts remotely similar to this last year so here’s hoping.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[iceman1991]

17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Models seem to be converging around days 8/9 now. 

Trop looks like it's going into reversal mode

hi crewecold is that good use for us ? 

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

[Mr snowman 2018]

Just to say this is the stratosphere at the moment as you can see it’s in its SSW phase and most models now are pointing something significant wise from around the 9th/10th of January which would be correct as the SSW has around a 10 day lag before its effects are felt in the UK also interesting to note later on in the run the polar vortex splits in 2 which can be very good for us coldies! The charts from now should get more interesting from each passing day a fascinating few days of model watching coming up !

[Scott Ingham]

That ecm run towards the back end is insane! No vortex no cold almost everywhere in america it all pushed to the Russian side. What a bizarre winter this has been. It truly does have potential to do newsworthy things!

The trop isnt showing signs of going into reversal yet in my opinion if it was wed see the cokd from russia head towards the UK.

Were just seeing the massive ssw displacement displace the vortex to russia. Reversal wouldn show till arounf the 15th onwards at the very minimum and thats if its a qtr so things can only upgrade when we sent russias vortex over us

Edited December 31, 2020 by Scott Ingham