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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

Battleground Snow
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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Brilliant brilliant start to the 12zs!!looking at the slight change in angle at 90 hours on the gfs you just knew it would be colder!!!

Got wash streamers for the Midlands written all over it, great to have small upgrades in the near timeframe for once!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

This is looking like the trough to the north is going to drop nicely here at 156.

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.5cc02b2b08638c1e94cc56f5ad6606ed.png

i reckon an easterly will follow this soon.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Brilliant brilliant start to the 12zs!!looking at the slight change in angle at 90 hours on the gfs you just knew it would be colder!!!

Aye sheikhy, better GFS, mild sector not there! need a clean flow, not a trough with mild sector in

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Looking like the ECM from earlier I would suggest

EBA08C98-4FA8-46F7-A31F-D2C54D78DDF1.png

451D44CB-0115-4E2B-9DC5-BB2563439D6C.png

Edited by That ECM
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
5 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

So weird that the nearest sub -10c uppers to the east are in Mongolia !

There are some -12 just above us about to drop if you cant wait

image.thumb.png.464ef3dbc84955de21676f3b4003b752.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Deep cold starting to move west across Russia - it couldn't, could it?  Probably not, but something to keep our attention.

image.thumb.png.7a85d2c04a5ea6b5a5c929e32c3696d7.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Its like the cold pool intensifies more over the uk and whatever mild air tries to come from europe gets repelled!!!

Aye, Wed improvement, more wintry than 06Z, less rainy

prectypeuktopo.png

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Northernsnow Newbie

Northernsnow

Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Thunderstorms. Heatwaves. Anything extreme.
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

Nothing wrong with that ukmo tonight. Definitely should be some snow around with that set up for sure. And this isn’t even the main coarse yet. Such a world away from this time last year. All roads seem to lead to cold and snow at the moment. 

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted

Latest METO Fax for T+120 shows a nice occluded front near the 528 DAM line:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

850 temp good too:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted

Looking good gang,I had a feeling the 12s might start looking good..Trust me things will get better and better in the coming days.

I'm going to do something I've not done all Xmas now,namely take a few hours away from the models,and do something I've not done since last New Year...have a blooming good drink.

So I would like to say to all the Netwaether crew...young and old.. 

Heres to a bright New Year and a fond farewell to the old...

Heres to the things that are yet to come,and to the memories that we hold.

May you have a prosperous New Year,wishing you a Happy Healthy New Year.

May the New Year bless you with Health,wealth and Happiness.

And a few nice frigid ensembles to boot...take care all.

gens-16-1-348.png

gens-16-0-360.png

gens-22-1-324.png

gens-22-0-360.png

happy-new-year-13.jpg

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Brilliant brilliant start to the 12zs!!looking at the slight change in angle at 90 hours on the gfs you just knew it would be colder!!!

Not a great start if you’re including the Icon though !

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Here we go,.....easterly no2 INCOMING!☺️

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.1f0189d93054b7c0a7221c0685d2f688.pnggfsnh-1-186.thumb.png.6e275ffe8f08273c0c5244fa1bd994f5.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes UKMO still all kinky at 72 ☃️☃️

I suppose you luckily folks around Eastern England are going to get quite lucky 

Great start to the afternoon runs! UKMO/GFS looks similar

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Not a great start if you’re including the Icon though !

We’re not! It’s the warm-up act.  Just like the GME before it (remember that one? Another in the model graveyard along with the BOM and the NOGAPS).  

 

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

What an absolute beauty, no complaints from me whatsoever about this run.

75DFAB10-FE2F-423C-A4DB-8932D4F50656.thumb.png.c86291560d7b6cda263863523edec1d8.pngD79C89E9-9BF0-4DEB-95AE-D439A6AE534E.thumb.png.db26ffd05308cebe467b9664996c57d1.png

 

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted (edited)

When was the last time we had a sustained period of below average temperatures, i.e. 2+ weeks? 2010? Whilst it's not brutally cold, it will certain be well below average for a while yet according to the GFS.

image.thumb.png.a03868ee9a781ff154a9b210975e0ef8.png

 

Edited by Eskimo
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

204 is gorgeous - It *should* get colder from here on in 

image.thumb.png.c8fe733c3aabb07888fed97a6e518c4b.pngimage.thumb.png.4b9b7bcc44f8b88d9f8804e19b58a489.png 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
Just now, Eskimo said:

When was the last time we had a sustained period of below average temperatures, i.e. 2+ weeks? 2010? Whilst it's not brutally cold, it will certain be well below average for a while yet according to the GFS.

image.thumb.png.86a22595eda92d0112b20e8e229bff12.png
 

That's the 06z buddy☺️

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted

GFS(P) 12z - 

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS parallèle

quite different to GFS Op 12z - 

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS parallèle

 

at T+162

 

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

That's the 06z buddy☺️

Ah yes, hovered over the wrong frame 

Nevertheless, 12z follows the same theme of prolonging the cold. 

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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

204 is gorgeous - It *should* get colder from here on in 

image.thumb.png.c8fe733c3aabb07888fed97a6e518c4b.pngimage.thumb.png.4b9b7bcc44f8b88d9f8804e19b58a489.png 

.....with the cold locked in for sometime, one would think too!

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