Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The easterly is starting to look how I feared, just simply not cold enough away from higher ground, its depressing too hear Matt Taylor saying slightly less cold air from the east in January so next week will feel cold and raw but with little reward. 

Going forward, yet again im seeing runs that has scraps of cold air, maybe hints the continent will get a bit more colder though but come on, its January and it's a blocked weather pattern, it's the least we should expect. Personally I think there is far too much high pressure and very little cold troughing, deep cold still looks a long way off imo.

Hmm I think I slightly agree with you Geordie,as even next week's easterly has been watered down and initially it had looked very cold.it seems we are always looking and chasing 10 day charts away!if we lived 1000 miles east nothing would be a problem

[Jackski4]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Clearly the BBC not favoring UKMO if they are saying less cold from the East.

We will see... big 12z runs coming up ...

Come on UKMO !!

I think they base their forecast off of ECM. Would make sense.. But agreed, we really need UKMO to be the trend setter!

 

anyway I’ll go back to lurking now

[Djdazzle]

You know your luck is out when you hear the words “less cold from the east.”

But I’m still not unhappy - I was expecting nothing this week or next regarding snow, and it looks likely to be the case.

Looks like BBC are using ECM take on things.

[Howie]

Less cold from the east? How ridiculously unlucky

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

You know your luck is out when you hear the words “less cold from the east.”

But I’m still not unhappy - I was expecting nothing this week or next regarding snow, and it looks likely to be the case.

Looks like BBC are using ECM take on things.

GEM and UKMO need right! hopefully they won't trend towards GFS and EC 0n 12Z's

[Always a red]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly the BBC not favoring UKMO if they are saying less cold from the East.

We will see... big 12z runs coming up ...

Come on UKMO !!

Indeed they are!

Yesterdays monthly update from Beeb was very different though so something has to give hopefully for the snowier option

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly the BBC not favoring UKMO if they are saying less cold from the East.

We will see... big 12z runs coming up ...

Come on UKMO !!

BBC do not use UKMO data so that’s not really surprising 

[snowblizzard]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly the BBC not favoring UKMO if they are saying less cold from the East.

We will see... big 12z runs coming up ...

Come on UKMO !!

UKMO almost certain to back down as less cold air looks likely to drift across from East (Med source) early next week! 

It's what happens after, that's the big question?

Fantastic model watching at the moment!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GEM and UKMO need right! hopefully they won't trend towards GFS and EC 0n 12Z's

But it’s usually the less favourable outcome that verifies!

i am still hopeful, but any proper cold hasn’t even come close to being modelled in the reliable time frame. Yet.

[Stu_London]

Based on the 6z GFS, the CET for the first 7 days of 2021 will be about 2C - cold, but not remarkably so. 

Given that a couple of days ago the same period was looking likely to be below freezing it is easy to see how the cold spell has been watered down as it comes into a more reliable time frame, despite only minimal changes to the pattern being modelled. 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Stu_London

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I think they base their forecast off of ECM. Would make sense.. But agreed, we really need UKMO to be the trend setter!

 

anyway I’ll go back to lurking now

Just shows that the ECM model is nae always quite as good as it's sometimes made out to be...? I always go to the MetO, for a guide as to how things might turn out -- both model- and weather-wise. And, they're always upfront when it comes to uncertainty...

Edited December 31, 2020 by General Cluster

[Battleground Snow]

Not really a fan of using arpege past day 3, but this GIF shows the dew points from 73 hours to 102 from it's 00z run. Looks to me like alternating periods of rain and snow. Both options are on the table at the moment

 

[Howie]

On a positive note 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

saw on here though, 144 UKMO chart is as useless as a chocolate teapot, the least accurate of the lot

[frosty ground]

Just now, Stu_London said:

Based on the 6z GFS, the CET for the first 7 days will be about 2C - cold, but not remarkably so. 

Given that a couple of days ago the same period was looking likely to be below freezing it is easy to see how the cold spell has been watered down as it comes into a more reliable time frame, despite the only minimal changes to the pattern being modelled. 

 

 

Now my memory is not what it used to be but I do not remember any forecast showing ice days for London’s with maybe the exception of one or maybe two Operational Runs.

the only watering down i have seen are peoples OTT expectations and this only feeds the usual “I’m sorry to say but” gang that constantly wants to police what people expect 

[damianslaw]

Based on the ECM, I'm seeing a slightly colder air source within the expected easterly, the flow coming from Baltics/S Scandi, and there is a bit of cold air pooling there now, yes there will be some modification as the origins are further to the SE, but perhaps not as much as some may be anticipating. Longer term, the ECM shows thicknesses below 522 dam air, and a cold trough feature set to slice through the heights from the NE with cold uppers behind.

A word on the recent spell of wintry weather, despite less than impressive cold uppers, we have thanks to the time of year enabled homegrown cold pooling to develop, maxima below 2 degrees and minima in the -2 to -4 degree mark returning means below 0 degrees; proper cold. It reminds me of the high pressure set ups we have in May when we can hit the mid 20s easily well above average, thanks to the power of the sun, despite less than impressive upper air temps.

Said it a number of times but it is 11 years since we started a New Year with a predominantly cold outlook in the offing (not comparable with 2010 in terms of depth, just yet...).

[E17boy]

Good morning peeps

Hope everyone is well and safe. I have not posted here for a while it's not been the best of times for me recently as I lost dad 3 weeks ago and my best friend is still in ICU from Covid. I have missed posting on here.

Anyway a frosty grey start here in Walthamstow NE London. Had a really sharp frost last night which was still there in the morning even on the roof tops.

To the models, I have seen a lot of posts that have been up and down and it seems some people are giving up already. From what I can see I think we are in such a setup that it needs small changes and the outcome is different. Looks like we will be getting some kind of Easterly come next week but it is not the beast we are all waiting for, but some of us still may be lucky to see things turn wintry. To me nothing is resolved yet we have still got another 3 days to go even for next week and it's a ongoing changing situation . The models are changing run by run and at this stage my advice would be not to either get dishearten or excited with anything beyond 3 days. These Easterlies next week may just be the starter of the main menu which might follow down the line or it may be just another false hope but nothing is clear yet we just have to have some patience and take things day by day. Those who are throwing the toys I know it's frustrating and like yourselves me here is starved of seeing snow but I truelu think something special will come to us.

So fingers crossed we are in a far better set up than many years and we have a possible SSW which may come to our aid ( bearing also in mind not all SSW is good for us), but we always live in that hope.

Finally I just want to thank everyone for making what this forum is I don't know what other hobby I would be doing if this was not here. The posts have been great and a pleasure to read and thanks to the more knowledgeable ones who have taken great effort to share information and make it easier for the newbies on here.

What a year 2020 has been for all of us a year where covid has restricted us from our daily normal lives. With 2021 upon us I hope and pray for the good health of everyone and their families. Hoping that next winter when we are here there will be better things to reflect back on. Stay safe all and thank you for making this place what it is.

wishing you and your families a healthy and peaceful 2021.

and lastly

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES

Kind regards 

all the best

[drm]

Just now, snowblizzard said:

UKMO almost certain to back down as less cold air looks likely to drift across from East (Med source) early next week! 

It's what happens after, that's the big question?

Fantastic model watching at the moment!

Indeed ,the interest is not really this week ahead though any snow would be a bonus,the models will chop and change in the meantime a bumpy road ahead once we lose the Mediterranean source in our easterly flow then things will look much less marginal,patience is required interesting times ahead without doubt,rare set ups ahead hemisphere wise ,enjoy the ride after all there's absolutely nothing any of us can do about it.Happy new year to all when it comes from a long time lurker,back to just watching for me .

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Now my memory is not what it used to be but I do not remember any forecast showing ice days for London’s with maybe the exception of one or maybe two Operational Runs.

the only watering down i have seen are peoples OTT expectations and this only feeds the usual “I’m sorry to say but” gang that constantly wants to police what people expect 

Yeah uppers have never forecast to get below-8 and even this was patchy at best so I dont think things have got watered down, just variation on the theme which is easterly winds.

Higher ground in places over England could still see snowfall and even at some lower levels but lying snow at lower levels looks very unlikely. The lack of cold air looks like it will bite us in the backside...

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, Howie said:

Less cold from the east? How ridiculously unlucky

Well, it's currently turning less cold here from the North.

Based on the current model output I think they're wrong though.

Also, I see the met office are all in for cold throughout January.

[Tim Bland]

It does seem that the BBC (Meteogroup) use almost 100% ECM for their forecasts as you can see the graphics match the last ECM run on every forecast. I know they are not the Met office,  & are a private organisation, but surely they can still use UKMO and MOGREPS / UKV etc? In fact they should use every model available (even if behind a paywall) as that’s what forecasters should do? Not just display 1 single model ? Their app (weather pro) is just a direct feed from the ECM run as well. Hopefully the Met office win the contract back next time it is reviewed ! 

[lambgregg1977]

16 minutes ago, Howie said:

Less cold from the east? How ridiculously unlucky

In early January! 

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

UKMO almost certain to back down as less cold air looks likely to drift across from East (Med source) early next week! 

It's what happens after, that's the big question?

Fantastic model watching at the moment!

Don’t you realise the air travels 1,200 miles? Theres plenty of distance for that air to cool It has no semblance to origins, and at present I think models aren’t capturing that. You’d think some people think it’s going to be a tropical easterly.

There was also evidently modification in early Feb 2009 very wintry for most of country the Siberian link was severed very quickly. 

[Tim Bland]

I thought the issue was that Eastern Europe is having temperatures way above average and has been for some time,  so the land is warmer that it travels over. I don’t think the same was true in 2009? For example Sofia (capital of Bulgaria) is currently in double digits and is often frozen solid this time of year 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Tim Bland

[snowblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Don’t you realise the air travels 1,200 miles? Theres plenty of distance for that air to cool It has no semblance to origins, and at present I think models aren’t capturing that. You’d think some people think it’s going to be a tropical easterly.

There was also evidently modification in early Feb 2009 very wintry for most of country the Siberian link was severed very quickly. 

Not tropical, but see Tim Blands post!