Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Mucka]

Yes ECM drops the low through (could be cleaner but good enough).

That is the key to keeping the pattern amplified and not having the cold upper air mixed out too much.

As long as we clear the low South then the only danger to prolonging the cold out to mid Jan is a W Based -NAO but that has been a danger all along which we have avoided thus far.

Let's see if UKMO and GFS can clear energy S at around 144this afternoon  or at least split energy and send most of it S.

If we can clear these hurdles I think the cold spell stretching out to mid month at least is pretty secure and it will just be a case of how cold and where the snow turns up.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Mucka

[Sky Full]

What’s the world coming to.  New Years Day and no hangover .  Went to bed early - no fireworks to watch and couldn’t wait to see the back of   2020.  So here we are in 2021 with some cold weather to start the year.   Here’s the picture seen by all four main models at +144h (7th January).....

                                        500s.                                                         850s

UKMO    

ECM       

GFS        

GEM.      

They all agree it’s going to remain cold for a week or so, but after that who knows?  I don’t think the charts after this date are worth anything right now and it could all change for better or worse in a week.  We still have the deepest part of winter ahead and we start from a very promising position for cold weather, so we’ve every chance of seeing more snow before March.  Perhaps a lot of it.    ️
 

Anyway, HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone on NW and let’s hope all the news from now on is good news.

[Weather-history]

GFS mean chart at 240hrs (11th January)

 

This is what 11th January was like last year

[IDO]

The gfs op as a synoptic has pretty much no support from the gefs and is warmer than the mean on nearly every variable. One to ignore unless there is a trend?

d9 gefs>  London>

The gefs have moved towards the ecm solution, the Atlantic ridge and the trough dropping and there are clusters within that scenario as to how that happens and the scope east to west.

The mean 850s (London^^^) remain below the seasonal for the next 16-days which is a rarity! A few in FI heading towards the -10c line but the mean rising as we go into the extended period. 

We remain on track for a very seasonal period which may extend to within the SSWE fallout, that could mean a wintry January? Looking at the d16 gefs we can see something brewing up yonder with an Arctic High showing itself in about 50% of the members:

d16 gefs jff> 

It will be interesting to see how the SSWE plays for the UK!

[NewEra21]

Surely going by the UKMO and ECM 850s for next week anything falling from the sky would be more white than wet?

-6 -7 -8 and even touching -9 850s. I understand the north sea moderates things a bit, but surely it would be a lot colder at the surface than forecasts are currently predicting.

Or am I just completely missing something here?

[northwestsnow]

Well I'm baffled...

I posted the EC /UKMO uppers yet I've just read the BBC outlook text and the line turning windier and less cold early next week.

Can someone enlighten me as to why?

Ps this is the local forecast....with the uppers here -7/-8 all week...

Edited January 1, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well I'm baffled...

I posted the EC /UKMO uppers yet I've just read the BBC outlook text and the line turning windier and less cold early next week.

Can someone enlighten me as to why?

Ps this is the local forecast....with the uppers here -7/-8 all week...

GFS isn’t the coldest model next wed but here are the maximums for 1300 on Wed, certainly no where near their projected temps - and probably nearer the mark with those uppers in early Jan I’d say!! I don’t get it.

 

Ill give them 5c right on the East coast, any showers getting over to central and western U.K. should be wintry 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS isn’t the coldest model next wed but here are the maximums for 1300 on Wed, certainly no where near their projected temps - and probably nearer the mark with those uppers in early Jan I’d say!! I don’t get it.

Agreed!

Perhaps there are valid reasons for the projected rubbish surface temps but with uppers locally at -7 and -8 ( 520- 522Dam)and no Atlantic influence im baffled.

The text i posted above confirms the National forecast, talk of a wintry mix at higher elevations.

 

[NewEra21]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well I'm baffled...

I posted the EC /UKMO uppers yet I've just read the BBC outlook text and the line turning windier and less cold early next week.

Can someone enlighten me as to why?

Ps this is the local forecast....with the uppers here -7/-8 all week...

The BBC still seem to be mentioning picking up warmer/less cold air from the med.

But over the last few model runs we've seem the models gradually lose that influence from the med, I'm guessing the BBC are still 24 hours or so behind with their data.

[northwestsnow]

The mean is fabulous ...

But I'm not sure what it will translate to at the surface esp with the forecasts BBC and Meroffice are giving...

[Decemberof2010]

I Wonder what temps they’d give out for this beauty?

Even Feb says he would take this

 

[Penrith Snow]

What i like about the ECM 240 (yes I know) is that for the first time northern European temperatures upwind to our north east are below average, in the deepest part of winter this has to be a good thing and ensure the projected Easterly is properly cold and snowy.

TBH you couldn't get a much better chart for mid January, all it has to do now is verify.

Andy

[JoeShmoe]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well I'm baffled...

I posted the EC /UKMO uppers yet I've just read the BBC outlook text and the line turning windier and less cold early next week.

Can someone enlighten me as to why?

Ps this is the local forecast....with the uppers here -7/-8 all week...

Both Matt Hugo and Marco petagna on Twitter this am saying thoughts are it may turn unsettled from the W / NW next week. Marco has been saying similar steadfastly for days now  as the high slowly sinks south 

[seabreeze86]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The mean is fabulous ...

But I'm not sure what it will translate to at the surface esp with the forecasts BBC and Meroffice are giving...

There temperature forecasts are very poor they have consistently been 2-3 degrees over all week here. It’s the same every winter. I remember a few years ago the bbc weather on look north was predicting rain showers when every metric said it would be snow. Of course it snowed on and off all day 

Edited January 1, 2021 by seabreeze86

[Penrith Snow]

18 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

The BBC still seem to be mentioning picking up warmer/less cold air from the med.

But over the last few model runs we've seem the models gradually lose that influence from the med, I'm guessing the BBC are still 24 hours or so behind with their data.

A 850mb temperature of -8c and sea level temperature of 5c would result in a lapse rate of nearly 3c per 1000 feet which is highly unlikely in a mid winter easterly. Lapse rates as high as that usually occur in spring when solar energy heat the ground quickly while air aloft stays cold.

Andy

[keithlucky]

13 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

The BBC still seem to be mentioning picking up warmer/less cold air from the med.

But over the last few model runs we've seem the models gradually lose that influence from the med, I'm guessing the BBC are still 24 hours or so behind with their data.

The day time maximum tempretures are incorrect for the UK next week.For example Berlin 1c Prague ic Walsaw 1c, for next week.So even allowing for the North Sea warming effect the flow from the south east Europe, 3c 4c maximum by the end of week in the UK as the North sea cools.

[Polar Maritime]

The NetWx-mr showing a wintry week into the New Year from the East, With overnight frost's and daytime temps of 1/2/3c away from the East Coast. Showers blowing inland off the North Sea will turn wintry as they move inland, Scotland will have some very hard frost's down to -10 in places. Beyond next Friday is all very much up in the air especially what with the SSW taking place, So plenty of interesting Model watching to come as this unfolds and expect even more run to run chopping/changing than of late.

 

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Both Matt Hugo and Marco petagna on Twitter this am saying thoughts are it may turn unsettled from the W / NW next week. Marco has been saying similar steadfastly for days now  as the high slowly sinks south 

Even @CreweCold think it will turn more westerly as we go through to mid January FWTW.

 

then again I’m not sure the forecast for warmer temperatures early next week is from a collapsing high and more to do with muck picked up in transit from Europe? What happens later in the period is anyone guess 

[Drifter]

I must admit, I’m impressed at the relative positivity on here this morning. 
I am starting to get that familiar sinking feeling when a cold spell begins to go belly up - the Atlantic ridge is starting to be projected to not make it as far north (apart from on ecm, but I’d expect that to follow). 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

ECM snow lover's fantasy chart

Lol the same ECM precip charts that were showing 10-20cm of snow in the south 4-5days out for Boxing Day (or the day after) those snow accumulation charts are almost zero percentage accurate more than 24hrs out in the UK.

[AFCBSNOW]

Just to add to the BBC temps.  Here in Bournemouth at this very time it is -5.  I have no idea where the idea of these temps are coming from on the BEEB.  I cant help but feel the charts are going to continue to upgrade even at T24.

[Catacol]

All coming together. ECM shows clearly the next major wave break 6/7/8 Jan as pacific momentum blasts through, and the block encourages another trough reload. Yes - the air is still not the coldest we have ever seen come out of the N and NE....but each successive cavalry charge is dropping temps further. 11 Jan - not even half way through January - and we are seeing the cold dig in properly. More than just memorable still sits on the table....

[Ali1977]

No warm ups showing here for North England

[Singularity]

Quite something just how much ECM has adjusted the northeast flow colder for Mon-Wed. Seems the BBC probably are lagging behind on developments.

As for what goes on later in that run... phenomenal. Also highlights just how much potential GFS managed to waste!

[bluearmy]

Well the Dp’s arent much of a problem on that ec op post Sunday pm but then again, the predicted precip off the North Sea much different ... but we will likely get some trough disturbances