Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

There’s been a lot of false promise this winter - lots of talk of snow but no snow actually materialising in this part of the world - so a lot of people will absolutely be disregarding this potential snow event. 

Snow was always forecast for further south in December and cheshire in Jan.I don't recall a warning the likes of which are on now but may be totally wrong there.

[Tim A]

My slight worry is that it goes a bit too far South now for us to be in the optimum position, slight trend amongst the models for that to happen this afternoon at least on Thursday.  Don't really want it to go any further South or have to wait until Friday morning for the heavy stuff (as that is further into the future = more uncertainty).  

[LeeSnowFan]

we tend to do quite well in Barnsley hoping we get to see some decent snow  

 

I do have to be somewhere for 9am will i get there?

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Snow was always forecast for further south in December and cheshire in Jan.I don't recall a warning the likes of which are on now but may be totally wrong there.

I think you’re right - it’s mostly media speculation that people see though. 

[Matt Jones]

1 hour ago, reef said:

Not a flake here either only 7 miles from the coast. What on Earth has happened to proper northerlies like we used to get? You know, the ones with a N/NNE flow which used to push snow showers 30-50 miles inland and hang about for 36-48 hours. Recent efforts are 12-24 hours of NNW/NW flow which just tickles the coast.

I cant get too excited about Thursday either. It's almost definitely not going to be snow here.

Still, at least its sunny for once.

Yep it's been the same here in Immingham, proper northerlies just don't seem to exist anymore, light and variable wind and 7C this afternoon. Probably just sleet before rain on Thursday.

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

we tend to do quite well in Barnsley hoping we get to see some decent snow  

 

I do have to be somewhere for 9am will i get there?

Yes doesn't get here until 12 according to the GFS

[Aiden2012]

Just had the lightest ever shower here at 4c and it was all snow

[Gray-Wolf]

Will it's my shopping day on Thursday so any 'settling' can wait until PM Ta!!!

Then my Mrs is on a 'late' with a 9pm finish......out in the community......oh boy!

Maybe I'd better offer to drive on Her Shift (she hates icy/snow driving?)

[winterof79]

Lordy Lordy

Depths and cm/per hour 

 

[Aiden2012]

Fingers crossed it stays out now can’t be having it going more south

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Lordy Lordy

Depths and cm/per hour 

 

Divide by 2 and you probably get nearer the actual figure. LOL.

Next thing we will be worrying about it tracking too far south.

[Empire Of Snow]

Just now, LeeSnowFan said:

we tend to do quite well in Barnsley hoping we get to see some decent snow  

 

I do have to be somewhere for 9am will i get there?

Yes. But you'll need to be back around midday. This kind of show from these systems is heavy, it will stick right way in the first hour. 

[Harsh Climate]

Just checked charts from behind sofa after a little break from viewing them and thankfully the weather gods seem to have smiled on us. Although caution still needed at this stage as Tim A mentions, we do not want too many southward corrections now, but I would say we are 90% there now, especially for north and west yorkshire.

IMBYism but for N/West yorkshire never really milder than the -6 dam line which is perfect..

Another area of interest is some models showing another pulse of heavier snow later friday morning which would effectively be round 2!! Boom 2 snow events in 1 go, we shall see.

[joggs]

12 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Just checked charts from behind sofa after a little break from viewing them and thankfully the weather gods seem to have smiled on us. Although caution still needed at this stage as Tim A mentions, we do not want too many southward corrections now, but I would say we are 90% there now, especially for north and west yorkshire.

IMBYism but for N/West yorkshire never really milder than the -6 dam line which is perfect..

Another area of interest is some models showing another pulse of heavier snow later friday morning which would effectively be round 2!! Boom 2 snow events in 1 go, we shall see.

So hope this comes of from a selfish POV 

[ChezWeather]

GFS, ECM, ICON, APERGE snow depth midday Friday

Pretty good cross model agreement that somewhere in the region is getting a dumping of snow

Edited March 7, 2023 by ChezWeather

[Empire Of Snow]

The South bias in the mod thread is simply unbearable. What a joke. 

[Aiden2012]

Just now, Empire Of Snow said:

The South bias in the mod thread is simply unbearable. What a joke. 

I have just left, it’s terrible

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've been thinking similarly to many other members on here, the current model outputs are pretty ideal for producing a significant frontal snow event here in Lincoln, but ironically (given that this morning the issue was that they kept placing the low too far north, resulting mainly in rain), now my bigger concern is that if they place it much further south, it could end up mainly dry here with the bulk of the precipitation to the south!  It shows how marginal these frontal events often are, but it's looking increasingly likely that a slice of England may see a significant snow event from this.

Tonight's ECM 12Z is continuing the southward trend, placing it a bit further south even than the 00Z did, with the -5C 850hPa line barely making it as far as Lincolnshire.  It'll be interesting to see the ECM 12Z precipitation charts as they should illustrate how much chance there is of the region (by which I mean Yorkshire as well as Lincolnshire) still getting a fair amount of precipitation with further southward corrections.

I agree with the east coast members that the east coast of England is unlikely to see any advance on rain/sleet from this, though.  I lived on the coast of Tyne & Wear for years and the coastal strip normally got its biggest snow events from showers off the North Sea, either via a northerly or via a particularly cold easterly or north-easterly which could overcome the coastal warming effects of the onshore wind.  These sort of marginal frontal events with winds from the south-eastern quarter of the compass tended to bring rain/sleet near the coast with snow inland.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Thundery wintry showers

[terrier]

3 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

The South bias in the mod thread is simply unbearable. What a joke. 

Yeah they are absolutely cocker hoop now it’s shifted south. Looks like it still moves north for a short while Friday morning before shifting back south before dying out. 

[Empire Of Snow]

2 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

I have just left, it’s terrible

Good luck to them trying to track the thing. It's going down to nowcast. 

[Empire Of Snow]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Yeah they are absolutely cocker hoop now it’s shifted south. Looks like it still moves north for a short while Friday morning before shifting back south before dying out. 

This is when it's pivoting. I'll stay away from the mod thread. I don't even mind if it goes the wrong way and ends up in France. 

[Aiden2012]

If this goes all tits up all this week I think I’m done with winter for another year

[terrier]

2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

This is when it's pivoting. I'll stay away from the mod thread. I don't even mind if it goes the wrong way and ends up in France. 

Yeah will laugh if it ends up that far south France gets it all lol. Definitely staying out the mod threat for a few days. 

[Lincs Observation]

Evening

Lincolnshire has in the main done poorly out of this winter and to be frank any snow falling now would be firstly transitory and secondly a waste of time. What makes me laugh is everyone getting revved up over this event but primarily the locations you expect to have snow will have it for a while with no surprises there, and places that don’t traditionally have laying snow will see it in a wink of an eye so again no surprises.

If this has been some four to six weeks ago it’s worth noting but we are at the start of spring so let’s find some usable spring type weather quite frankly I’m hunting for warmth now not ruddy snow. 
 

enough now 🥹

LO

[bryan629]

8 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

If this goes all tits up all this week I think I’m done with winter for another year

Yep.. could this be the first ever, ever spring is over post !!