Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Yorkshirepudding]

So many uncertainties over the low Thursday into Friday earlier overnight into this morning some of the models had some of the biggest precipitation and overall snow totals up near the boarder of England and Scotland and down the spine into Yorkshire, Now this evening we have it into the midlands. We are still in the game and it could end up right on top of us. Hoping and praying it’s not the case this time but experience tells me that when I want it to happen it never does but I’ve just got a feeling we will see something in the middle and hit the Jackpot so to speak. 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Yorkshirepudding

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thus, I'm going to go back to what I thought earlier - there's still potentially a bit of leeway for the low to track a little further south than the ECM is suggesting without it resulting in most of us staying largely dry.  Nonetheless, the north of the region could still do with it not going any further south.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just checked out the UKV and its precipitation charts look very similar to this evening's ECM with the precipitation staying mainly to the south during the day on Thursday but spreading to all parts early on Friday morning, still a bit marginal for the SE of the region and near the coast but with snow for most, helped by nocturnal cooling.  UKV also shows snow for inland parts of Lincolnshire and east Yorkshire tomorrow evening, seemingly from showers coming in off the North Sea to the north of the main band of rain/sleet/snow over southern England.

[Matt Jones]

22 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

From the point of view of getting a significant snow event, no, as this would increase the chances of a snow to rain event especially in the south of the region.  But at the same time, if it goes much further south than tonight's ECM is showing, it would increase the chances of it staying largely dry particularly in the north of the region.  I reckon our region is pretty much in the sweet spot (with the exception of North Sea coastal areas, which will get a warming onshore wind) on the latest set of runs.

Yeah an easterly wind will be the killer here near the coast with uppers becoming marginal, always an issue in this location need -10 uppers really to compensate.

[Craigers]

After following these corrections I still think middle ground solution would be Yorkshire for sweet spot! 

[Tim A]

38 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

UKV - slight southwards correction from the early morning output. A later arrival for our region and a more fragmented band of wintry precipitation with snow initially favoured for higher ground before nocturnal cooling brings more of us into play overnight into early Friday. Basically a weaker low compared to the recent 'bowling-ball' efforts from the UKMO.

GFS - generally a snow fest with many areas seeing snow. A rare option to bring a more potent band of snow south through Friday, too.

ECM - unwelcome trend south from its 00z output, with less snow in general for our region with the south faring best (though still unlikely to be disruptive)

ARPEGE - consistent with earlier runs with the system reaching Yorkshire, providing snow throughout as well as stalling across central UK and pivoting back south during Friday morning. Bank!

GEM - widespread inland snow during Thursday and overnight into early Friday.

 

I think this has a while to run yet. Probably until Thursday morning when we can see the radar

Good summary. 

You only have to take one look at the GFS and ECM Ensembles to see the massive uncertainty.  Both ops go with the colder (dryer/more south low) scenerio.  But looking through each GFS ensembles many have the snow much further North (and quite a few a bit too far North).  So some more comfort there. 

Met Office App has some subtle changes from earlier in the day but still shows heavy snow here  from 15.00 Thursday to 15.00 Friday now rather than from 9am to 9am.  Still shows sleet for Leicester/Birmingham etc though so no massive changes there yet.  

Also don't really know how this version of the Icon 12Z is out but it shows the snow line further north than the ECM or GFS at same time. https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icond2/runs/2023030718/icond2-1-48-0.png?07-20

 

 

But i have to admit i am worried, tense times. 

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Tim A

[bryan629]

Just a quick comparison from Mogreps 06 v 12z for North and South Yorkshire snow rates

York first.. Still some members in there with heavy snow but the control loses heart by the 12z, Still no reason at the moment to rule anything out though!

Now for the fun part if your in South Yorkshire. 

06z was wild enough for snow looking at that , then the 12z just goes bezerk for you guys 

[Tim A]

8 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Just a quick comparison from Mogreps 06 v 12z for North and South Yorkshire snow rates

York first.. Still some members in there with heavy snow but the control loses heart by the 12z, Still no reason at the moment to rule anything out though!

Now for the fun part if your in South Yorkshire. 

06z was wild enough for snow looking at that , then the 12z just goes bezerk for you guys 

Thanks, never really clicked on that option before, fascinating. 

The Leeds one which is also mad. York can be a desert in these situations,  too low down and no orographic enhancement.  

 

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Tim A

[Guest]

I'm going against the southerly crowd in the mad thread, but the ECM ensembles are reasonably encouraging if you want a more northerly trend to your snow accumulation charts. Sure, a minority are too far north, but a good few are tip-top for this region and not as 'squeaky bum time' as the operational.

[bryan629]

3 minutes ago, Tim A said:

Thanks, never really clicked on that option before, fascinating. 

Added the Leeds one which is also mad https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps/mogrepssrleeds.png. York can be a desert in these situations,  too low down and no orographic enhancement.  

 

 

Totally Agree, York is in the middle of a very wide valley, in my neck of woods not too far east of Pennines. Just hoping for no further southwards corrections now as well 

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

I'm going against the southerly crowd in the mad thread, but the ECM ensembles are reasonably encouraging if you want a more northerly trend to your snow accumulation charts. Sure, a minority are too far north, but a good few are tip-top for this region and not as 'squeaky bum time' as the operational.

As we are seeing a last minute shift of wednesdays snow we will see it for thursday. You normally see over compensation south 48 hours out and a correction back north to correct within 24 hours.

The southern ground are getting far too ahead of themselves.

Regardless. South yorkshire will get significant snow even if the ecm is correct. Its a bit of a sweet spot really

[Gray-Wolf]

I'll not be popular but my Mrs could do with it not setting in 'bad' here until after 9pm Thurs......I keep trying to 'warn Her'....then she has 'Witchy Powers' over snow (it has appeared in past years?) so I'll apologise in advance if here, in W. Yorks, we need wait until around 9pm for it to set in proper like?.......

She's 'off' on Friday so it can do as it pleases from 9pm Thurs!!!!

[Love Snow]

2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'll not be popular but my Mrs could do with it not setting in 'bad' here until after 9pm Thurs......I keep trying to 'warn Her'....then she has 'Witchy Powers' over snow (it has appeared in past years?) so I'll apologise in advance if here, in W. Yorks, we need wait until around 9pm for it to set in proper like?.......

She's 'off' on Friday so it can do as it pleases from 9pm Thurs!!!!

How dare you

Normally the met office fails to predict snow in Leeds but it’s got is for heavy snow Thursday Afternoon onwards hopefully this isn’t a bad sign

[terrier]

And the icon trends the low back north. Come on gfs pub run also trend north just to quieten them southerners for an hour or 2 in the mad thread.

[Love Snow]

I would like to go to bed and leave it be but I’ve got twins what keep me awake most nights all night so I can’t even forget about the models until morning

[bryan629]

Icon 18z barely budged form the 12z.. Cmon GFS let us sleep easy tonight and stay unswayed 

[Aiden2012]

it’s going off in the model chat

[bryan629]

Just now, Aiden2012 said:

it’s going off in the model chat

LOL.. are they all trapped in a lift and someones farted hahaha 

[Love Snow]

10 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

it’s going off in the model chat

Happens every time it’s a massive shame because regular members do posts with vast knowledge what get lost ! I think it should be a locked thread personally for selected members to post in who post daily ! And then have an open mod thread for everyone to post charts and talk north and south during weather events what gets everyone back on the forum   

Edited March 7, 2023 by Love Snow

[Aiden2012]

Pub run

[bryan629]

T60 ... Perfection 

We are all in the game and it looks almost like the met warning area too.. sleep tight all 

Edited March 7, 2023 by bryan629

[Aiden2012]

Just now, bryan629 said:

T60 ... Perfection 

Absolute perfection

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye, GFS 18Z takes things further north.  I wouldn't be too happy with this outcome in my back yard as for the Lincoln area the forecast temperatures and dew points point towards rain and 3C overnight Thursday/Friday, but the 18Z looks decidedly snowy in most parts of Yorkshire and on the higher ground of Lincolnshire.  The track of this system is clearly far from settled, but the latest ICON and GFS 18Z point towards it being relatively unlikely that the eventual outcome will be even further south than the ECM 12Z showed, which was one point of concern.

[ChezWeather]

Pub run

 

[Wold Topper]

Unless your near the coast, looks like we may miss out!