Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

Just to clarify your implying that it could be rain on high ground and at the bottom of the hill under heavier ppn it would be snowing? I don't see how in any situation the odds would favour low ground for snowfall, it would always favour high ground first. 

I never said that mate.

I said snow on both high and low ground.

With low ground snow dependant on intensity and evaporative cooling.

I think Kasim has highly skillfully explained the reasonings to be confident in all honesty so id just wait and see.

Someone on ground under 100metres will get 5cm

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

It's pretty clear looking at the models that there is going to be a notable rain shadow east of the pennines with the bulk of the heavier precipitation skirting the south and west of the region. 

Met office high resolution model highlights this nicely. 

Along with the GFS 

It's all well and good highlighting the freezing level dropping under heavier precipitation and that will still happen, but to expect lying snow at sea level is unlikely without any meaningful intensity. 

 

I can't see a rainshadow developing to the east of the Pennines in an easterly 850mb flow.

What this is predicting is potentially some temporarily lighter precip due to the trough wave pushing into the North Midlands taking up some of the potential environmental convection.

Again, this is highlighted as a potential reason why the precip in Yorkshire may be lighter for a while *if* the trough wave is stronger than predicted. Ultimately this area rejoins the main precip further ESE tho into the North Mids & South Yorkshire.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Harsh Climate]

I hope I'm wrong but come tomorrow I even have doubts that the snow will settle to low ground in south yorkshire, would be a cruel blow to those areas like sheffield and lincolnshire who have missed out just about every event so far this winter

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

I hope I'm wrong but come tomorrow I even have doubts that the snow will settle to low ground in south yorkshire, would be a cruel blow to those areas like sheffield and lincolnshire who have missed out just about every event so far this winter

I live sheffield area and have had two decent snow events already

[Guest]

Yeah we've had two decent events here, but elevation played a big part in it. Being 220m ASL (my work location, but a half hour walk away from my house) has helped. Lower ground area in Sheffield it has been slim pickings.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Steel City Skies said:

Yeah we've had two decent events here, but elevation played a big part in it. Being 220m ASL (my work location, but a half hour walk away from my house) has helped. Lower ground area in Sheffield it has been slim pickings.

Ive had 2, 2-5cm events in Rotherham at 60metres. It was down to hitting the heavier precipitation

[NorthYorksWeather]

7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I can see why the met office warning for today/ tonight is in the area where it is and parts of scotland/north east england are in the orange area.

A quick glance at the dew points and uppers tomorrow really does not look conductive for snow fall south of yorkshire, south yorkshire may just be alright later tomorrow morning.

I think similar areas to last friday should probably be best primed for snowfall, although a bit more marginal this time around. In our region I would expect biggest low lying totals in north/west yorkshire and sweet spot being somehwere in the yorkshire dales, probably geenhow hill. Obviously north york moors could get a pasting. 

Can't see more than 1 or 2 cm low ground south of yorkshire.

I’m currently sat in my lorry on the North York Moors. Trust me they do not need any more snow haha.

Chop Gate, the village I’m in now had 35cm (14 inches) of level snow last Friday and it’s only 170m asl. 
Maybe they should share some with the rest of us.

[Scott Ingham]

Just rewatched the local forecasts and significant snow to high ground with notable snow to even low levels has been forecast

[Cheese Rice]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I never said that mate.

I said snow on both high and low ground.

With low ground snow dependant on intensity and evaporative cooling.

I think Kasim has highly skillfully explained the reasonings to be confident in all honesty so id just wait and see.

Someone on ground under 100metres will get 5cm

 

That applies in every and any situation where freezing level drops faster under heavier perciptation. 

It's still a favoured high ground setup as per the met office warning sorry to say. 

Hopefully low lying areas see some lying snow. 

[LeeSnowFan]

It's unfair to say south yorkshire could miss there is plenty of other areas in south yorkshire barr sheffield ! like scott we done well last couple of snow days we normally do in barnsley

[Bradowl]

13 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I hope I'm wrong but come tomorrow I even have doubts that the snow will settle to low ground in south yorkshire, would be a cruel blow to those areas like sheffield and lincolnshire who have missed out just about every event so far this winter

Sheffield is built on 7 hills so not all that much low ground, even neighbouring towns Barnsley and Rotherham are hilly in a number of areas. 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Bradowl

[Cheese Rice]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Again, this is highlighted as a potential reason why the precip in Yorkshire may be lighter for a while *if* the trough wave is stronger than predicted. Ultimately this area rejoins the main precip further ESE tho into the North Mids & South Yorkshire.

There's a brief 4 hour period of opportunity between 8am-12 where the front joins and intensity increases.

After 12 the front is well on its way out of Yorkshire.

I'm not seeing anything significant for low lying areas currently. 

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

 

That applies in every and any situation where freezing level drops faster under heavier perciptation. 

It's still a favoured high ground setup as per the met office warning sorry to say. 

Hopefully low lying areas see some lying snow. 

Yes it is a favoured high ground set up. It's not a classic restricted to high ground set up though, because evaporative cooling is coming into play at around 40% efficiency. Not 100% because winds are not 0 and humidity is not 0%. This in relatively heavy precipitation. Trust me if 200m+ gets 15cm+ in this set up it'll be very difficult to not at least see some below because of the evapo cooling which would be a given with this intensity. Of course there are uncertainties which I speak of above, which limit confidence and you have mentioned there with the front positioning. 100-200m is definitely a much better place than 50-100m, which will see evapo cooling conditions more easily met but some areas 50-100m will see some snow under the projected thermodynamic cooling.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

WRF 2KM highlights the *potential* for tomorrow.

If anything there is a slight Fohen effect see the slightly higher freezing line west of the Pennines

I do rate the wrf quite highly under 20 hours out...

[Scott Ingham]

12 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

 

That applies in every and any situation where freezing level drops faster under heavier perciptation. 

It's still a favoured high ground setup as per the met office warning sorry to say. 

Hopefully low lying areas see some lying snow. 

Who said it wasnt a favoured high ground set up? Not me but its misleading to say low ground wont see snow either because some areas on low ground above 50metres will do. Thats my argument which has been backed up with technical evidence from Kasim whos an exceptional short distance snow forecaster

[Cheese Rice]

23 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:

Just to reiterate this is the met office warning 

 

"Heavier snowfall is more likely above 100 m in Scotland and above 200 m in England, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate, possibly 20 cm on highest routes. At lower levels, 2 - 5 cm of snow may accumulate in places, but the situation remains finely balanced, with the possibility that most lower-lying areas in northern England see rain or sleet rather than snow."

 

5-10cm above 200m possible with most lower lying areas seeing rain or sleet.  Perhaps a few cm's to lower levels but that's not low ground that's more 120m+.

 

23 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:

The warning states lower levels, relative to 200m so you can decide what constitutes lower levels but it is not low ground ie 0m asl. 

I think your interpreting the warning wrong. 

@Kasim Awan Looking at my previous posts regarding this we are most likely singing from the same hymn sheet. ie accumulations at around 120m+ entirely possible. I don't see how with a lack of meaningful perciptation shown during the window of opportunity between 8-12 we'll see lying snow on low ground. 

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

 

@Kasim Awan Looking at my previous posts regarding this we are most likely singing from the same hymn sheet. ie accumulations at around 120m+ entirely possible. I don't see how with a lack of meaningful perciptation shown during the window of opportunity between 8-12 we'll see lying snow on low ground. 

Hes just said snow 50-100metres too.

Therw will be snow on low ground.

I never had you down as someone to troll tbh its a bit disappointing

When did i also say signoficant snow to low ground?

I said snow at 1-6cm which is what the met forecast

Edited January 13, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Aaron Roberts]

Just been for a run on the moors around Halifax, proper grim! Running on the tops is +400m...atm it's near to freezing and ice cold light rain. Foggy as anything, and the ground in it's semi frozen state is awful to run on....3/4 and 1/4 not! So never sure what you're gonna land on....still enjoyed it

[Harsh Climate]

12 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Sheffield is built on 7 hills so not all that much low ground, even neighbouring towns Barnsley and Rotherham are hilly in a number of areas. 

Yeah there is high ground around sheffield thatmight see some appreciable snow but there is also low parts more towards the centre and north east of the city around 200ft that will struggle to see settling.

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

 

@Kasim Awan Looking at my previous posts regarding this we are most likely singing from the same hymn sheet. ie accumulations at around 120m+ entirely possible. I don't see how with a lack of meaningful perciptation shown during the window of opportunity between 8-12 we'll see lying snow on low ground. 

Yeah I agree, this is a consideration for a potential outcome. There's also a consensus for merging energy tomorrow under quite fair temperatures and evapo cooling conditions which would produce more widespread low level snow. Bearing in mind I am not making a definitive forecast here just stating the range of possibilities considering all possible frontal dynamics.

I've also been through a fair number of "dissapointments", which allows me to see a logic tree of possibilities (range of outcomes and their knock on effects) however I am not allowing it to warp my prognosis of the potential.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[The PIT]

Right just looking at the charts for tomorrow. The fun starts from 12:00 in my books this will be East Yorkshire and north Yorkshire mostly on hills at this time. By three north and East Yorkshire could see Snow down to lower levels by then. South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire Snow on Hills wintry mix lower down by 18:00 hrs Snow possible down to lower levels as well in south Yorkshire. As the precipitation starts dying away in eastern areas rising dew points may turn back to rain away from high ground. By nine the fun if it actually arrives is finally over.

Local forecast has Snow from eight for us which is nonsense.

There is also a possibility of freezing rain for some again in North Yorkshire earlier on.

[The PIT]

4 minutes ago, Aaron Roberts said:

Just been for a run on the moors around Halifax, proper grim! Running on the tops is +400m...atm it's near to freezing and ice cold light rain. Foggy as anything, and the ground in it's semi frozen state is awful to run on....3/4 and 1/4 not! So never sure what you're gonna land on....still enjoyed it

Rescue services would have been really happy having to rescue you if you had an accident. Not sensible considering how stretched emergency services are right now.

Edited January 13, 2021 by The PIT

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Right just looking at the charts for tomorrow. The fun starts from 12:00 in my books this will be East Yorkshire and north Yorkshire mostly on hills at this time. By three north and East Yorkshire could see Snow down to lower levels by then. South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire Snow on Hills wintry mix lower down by 18:00 hrs Snow possible down to lower levels as well in south Yorkshire. As the precipitation starts dying away in eastern areas rising dew points may turn back to rain away from high ground. By nine the fun if it actually arrives is finally over.

Local forecast has Snow from eight for us which is nonsense.

There is also a possibility of freezing rain for some again in North Yorkshire earlier on.

I have to agree with this assesment this is how i see it playing out as well

[Cheese Rice]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hes just said snow 50-100metres too.

Therw will be snow on low ground.

I never had you down as someone to troll tbh its a bit disappointing

When did i also say signoficant snow to low ground?

I said snow at 1-6cm which is what the met forecast

I'm not quite sure why a difference of opinion is seen in this way. 

Please don't engage with my posts going forward, I will not engage with your posts either. 

Thank-you 

[Harsh Climate]

15 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

It's unfair to say south yorkshire could miss there is plenty of other areas in south yorkshire barr sheffield ! like scott we done well last couple of snow days we normally do in barnsley

Yes coarse there is mate, but on a whole low down in south yorkshire I'm not expcting much in the way of snowfall. Would love to be wrong though and hope ya get a good dumping.