North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Spah1]

Looks like mild SW’s next week. Yuk. Boring

[WillinGlossop]

-3c already... could we get to -6/-7c? 
hoping tomorrow is more promising than some forecasts snowise but even Peak District forecasts not great for accumulations... we shall see... could get an ice day tomorrow  

[sheikhy]

Yeh just seen it!!!extremely poor for the whole midlands on ecm!!big change from the 00z!!!!

[Weather-history]

-4.2C

[iand61]

Today’s early morning dusting of snow was still on the house drive and steps when I got home from work tonight so in the shade at least, today has been an ice day.

not a bad effort as is having 7 days with snow on the ground and falling snow on 7 of the last 9 days.

 

 

[itsnowjoke]

Nearly broke my kneck outside so slippy

[Chris.R]

-2.5°C here now and -3.0°C back in Crosby.

This is the 9th air frost since this cold spell started on the 27th. Only this Monday  and the 27th had minimums above 0 and then only by a few points. For that alone this cold spell gets a satisfactory 5/10 rating from me. This will rise to a 6 if we get snow tomorrow.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Chris.R

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

 

Just looked at the BBC forecast maps for precipitation tomorrow, looks like someone has thrown a tin of white paint at the map, there is no coherence at all to where will see precipitation, you expect this from a showery airstream but not a front, it breaks up holes, appear then it reappears then disappears illogically, how can anyone use it. I've noticed this alot recently. I don't know how it can curve around central lakes then appear in southern parts if it is moving through the centre. Hopeless! 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

-2.5°C here now and -3.0°C back in Crosby.

This is the 11th air frost since this cold spell started on the 27th. Only this Monday  and the 27th had minimums above 0 and then only by a few points. For that alone this cold spell gets a satisfactory 5/10 rating from me. This will rise to a 6 if we get snow tomorrow.

 

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

-2.5°C here now and -3.0°C back in Crosby.

This is the 11th air frost since this cold spell started on the 27th. Only this Monday  and the 27th had minimums above 0 and then only by a few points. For that alone this cold spell gets a satisfactory 5/10 rating from me. This will rise to a 6 if we get snow tomorrow.

Sorry repeating message twice, yes I agree in terms of temperatures I would give it an ok 5 out of 10, we have yet to see an ice day, if we manage one and we might just tomorrow, then a 6. In terms of snowfall, have to give it a low 3, we had just a dusting overnight 30/31 Dec, if we manage an inch or so tomorrow and it sticks through until Saturday then I will nudge it to a generous 5, just! We have been very poorly placed for snowfall, everything has moved around us, it could have been a 6 or 7 easily on the snowfall front, alas not to be. Give me a stalling warm or occluded front from off the atlantic forced to retreat back south or fizzle in situ due to the cold air winning out and now your talking! Not had one of those events for a long long time, most recent few features have been followed by milder air. 

[raul_sbd]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

-4.2C

Impressive... down the road in Sale only at -1.6c u must b on a very rural area in Irlam.. stations on ur area reporting at -2c avg.. what’s ur station Id at wunderground?

[Weather-history]

21 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

-2.5°C here now and -3.0°C back in Crosby.

This is the 9th air frost since this cold spell started on the 27th. Only this Monday  and the 27th had minimums above 0 and then only by a few points. For that alone this cold spell gets a satisfactory 5/10 rating from me. This will rise to a 6 if we get snow tomorrow.

I give it a 8/10 

Longest period I have seen snow on the ground since January 2010, seen snow falling on 8 days.

Currently -5.0C

[SnowWatcher2]

Lets hope for another event like this is the coming weeks.. would definitely be welcomed by me.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, raul_sbd said:

Impressive... down the road in Sale only at -1.6c u must b on a very rural area in Irlam.. stations on ur area reporting at -2c avg.. what’s ur station Id at wunderground?

I don't have a station link  on wunderground  I live next to the Moss

[WillinGlossop]

-5c already everything sparkling and crisp and white... very icy out... 

[raul_sbd]

15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I don't have a station link  on wunderground  I live next to the Moss

I see.. today in Lymm snow was still in the ground so i believe even colder on snow fields 

[Kasim Awan]

5 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

A weak feature with waves of convection producing 1-3cm locally early Friday. Waves mean some areas will miss out. Similar to the last event so marginal on the coastal strip.

Also watch Thursday evening for some potential showers into the Cheshire gap.

ICON makes very little of it which has to be noted. This is looking like a nowcast with the potential for the amounts above. 

[Chris.R]

33 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I give it a 8/10 

Longest period I have seen snow on the ground since January 2010, seen snow falling on 8 days.

Currently -5.0C

Yep it would get an 8 from me as well if I had  any snow on the ground but unfortunately although I have recorded 4 days with snow falling none of it settled.

[cheshire snow]

16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ICON makes very little of it which has to be noted. This is looking like a nowcast with the potential for the amounts above. 

GFS on the other hand...

Although probably overdoing it

C.S

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

GFS on the other hand...

Although probably overdoing it

C.S

In fairness looking at the BBC forecast, clearly the ECM is making a little more of the PPN now even if the forecasters are still using the words snow fizzing out as it heads southwards. 

It's all down to radar watching really, it's ashame for my area its coming at the worst time of day seemingly but we shall see what happens. 

[Joe Snow]

-3c and thick freezing fog ? here on the S Cheshire plain. Coldest night of the winter likely. Will have to wait and see what tomorrow into Friday brings in terms of any snow - a last hurrah from this locally snowy but otherwise rather tame cold spell or a whimper? Here’s hoping we can get a SSW triggered big freeze late Jan into February. 

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

In fairness looking at the BBC forecast, clearly the ECM is making a little more of the PPN now even if the forecasters are still using the words snow fizzing out as it heads southwards. 

It's all down to radar watching really, it's ashame for my area its coming at the worst time of day seemingly but we shall see what happens. 

It will be fizzling out yes. What forecasters need to remember is that there are still fluctuations & bursts in convection. It is the intensity of these bursts which slowly decrease over time, rather than the precip decaying to nothing in a couple of hours which happens right at the end of the precipitation cycle. You see this with showers, e.g. from the North Sea they are technically decaying whilst still producing the odd sharper bursts. Common knowledge for many, important for this set up though.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It will be fizzling out yes. What forecasters need to remember is that there are still fluctuations & bursts in convection. It is the intensity of these bursts which slowly decrease over time, rather than the precip decaying to nothing in a couple of hours which happens right at the end of the precipitation cycle. You see this with showers, e.g. from the North Sea they are technically decaying whilst still producing the odd sharper bursts. Common knowledge for many, important for this set up though.

I think if there is enough instability and kinks, then I would not be surprised if the front makes it quite far south with some reasonable strength behind it, it's a tricky one to forecast though especially up here with all the mountains we have.

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think if there is enough instability and kinks, then I would not be surprised if the front makes it quite far south with some reasonable strength behind it, it's a tricky one to forecast though especially up here with all the mountains we have.

I'm fairly confident it will hold some reasonable convection rates.

[Kasim Awan]

AROME looks reasonable too. Need to keep an eye on intensity projections now.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Hopefully i'll see some snow falling tomorrow for the first time this winter, cant remember seeing any last winter either! Shocking run of winters for snow here.