North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[damianslaw]

Oh well looking like this front is going to deliver not one snowflake here, it is breaking into bits and very very weak. It must be the cold dense dry air squeezing it to death.

Hoping we may something from the next feature, but unsure where this is coming from.. will we be yet again on the edge! What a frustrating spell this has been here for snow. Seems to get a magnet around us turned inside out drawing everything away from us!

 

[Chris.R]

Hahaha WRF thinks it should be 2.4°C  currently at my location with a maximum of 4.8°C. It’s having a laugh! Currently -0.6°C. Temperatures have been overestimated for Merseyside.

[wrightc23]

Started snowing here, decent size flakes, quite heavy and it's sticking.

[Alexis]

A couple of showers before the fizzling front look more interesting!

[SnowWatcher2]

For once seem to be right on track for this current band to hit, if it keeps its strength up.

[Snow free zone]

21 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Heavy precip early tomorrow- 1-6cm widely with a strong element of marginality west of the M6.

There we go .... marginality west of the M6 back to normal then

[severe snowstorm]

I accept things may be marginal along the coastal strip, but encouraging signs that snow risk is now highlighted throughout this afternoon, this evening/tonight and tomorrow morning within the Liverpool Airport TAF. That's got to be a positive sign for coastal regions. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Snow free zone said:

There we go .... marginality west of the M6 back to normal then

& east of the M6 the precip shadow will likely limit accumulations into the early hours. Nonetheless, some sizeable accumulations will occurr locally, Peak District, Staffordshire, maybe Blackburn & Burnley way.

[bridgechad]

15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

There is the potential for a Pennine shadow over Manchester early tomorrow. Stromg vertical advection + gentle NNE wind. Wont be a classic dry shadow, may just produce lighter ppn for a time here.

 

 

 

 

Dreaded words I dont want to hear where I am.  the dreaded shadow - its the snow equivalent of Voldemort for us in east Manchester

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

& east of the M6 the precip shadow will likely limit accumulations into the early hours. Nonetheless, some sizeable accumulations will occurr locally, Peak District, Staffordshire, maybe Blackburn & Burnley way.

just east of M6 here

[griff74]

Some flakes starting to fall here now, look to be getting heavier, stuff from overnight not yet melted.

[Rain Lady]

Thin snow cover from shower just after 9am.   Not liking the forecast for the dreaded heavy rain returning late next week.

 

[Alexis]

Snow now in Whitefield @ 100m

[severe snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, bridgechad said:

 

 

Dreaded words I dont want to hear where I am.  the dreaded shadow - its the snow equivalent of Voldemort for us in east Manchester

Yep, shadow effect can be evil East of Manchester, particularly with a South Easterly element to the wind. I remember the notorious March 2013 event when I lived in those parts. We virtually got a dusting whilst other places were literally buried not too many miles away.

[Rain Lady]

Has everyone seen this?  Apologies if it has already been posted.

Incredible amounts of rain on western upslopes.  Oh please let's not have more like this.

 

[Alexis]

1 minute ago, Rain Lady said:

Has everyone seen this?  Apologies if it has already been posted.

Incredible amounts of rain on western upslopes.  Oh please let's not have more like this.

 

The most incredible thing is that April and May were so dry, that was over 10 and a half months in effect.

[griff74]

Is really picking up in intensity and size of flakes here now

[Snow free zone]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

& east of the M6 the precip shadow will likely limit accumulations into the early hours. Nonetheless, some sizeable accumulations will occurr locally, Peak District, Staffordshire, maybe Blackburn & Burnley way.

Yes .... looks as though we will miss out on the majotity of the heavy ppn here, and what does fall will be mostly rain/sleet mix.  

It's just a case of a return to the normal as regards snow for us here.  We've not done too badly this winter for this location , there are still snow patches dotted around from last weekend so as for snow and cold its a massive difference to either of the last 2 winters. 

Certainly looks as though those further inland as you say will be in for a reasonable covering during the next 24hrs or so.  

 

 

[Backtrack]

15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

& east of the M6 the precip shadow will likely limit accumulations into the early hours. Nonetheless, some sizeable accumulations will occurr locally, Peak District, Staffordshire, maybe Blackburn & Burnley way.

So what you're saying is that you need to actually be on the M6 to see anything tomorrow hahahaha. West no good, East no good, motorway fantastic

[SnowWatcher2]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

So what you're saying is that you need to actually be on the M6 to see anything tomorrow hahahaha. West no good, East no good, motorway fantastic

Lets all buy Snowmobile's 

[jam2010]

Pretty heavy snow shower here, sticking nicely shame it won't last.

Looks like the dreaded shadow tommorow!!

3/10 - this cold spell 

[Backtrack]

32 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Hahaha WRF thinks it should be 2.4°C  currently at my location with a maximum of 4.8°C. It’s having a laugh! Currently -0.6°C. Temperatures have been overestimated for Merseyside.

Met Office go for 3-4C max today. It's currently -1C with an hour to go before temps peak

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Yes .... looks as though we will miss out on the majotity of the heavy ppn here, and what does fall will be mostly rain/sleet mix.  

It's just a case of a return to the normal as regards snow for us here.  We've not done too badly this winter for this location , there are still snow patches dotted around from last weekend so as for snow and cold its a massive difference to either of the last 2 winters. 

Certainly looks as though those further inland as you say will be in for a reasonable covering during the next 24hrs or so.  

 

 

I'm not sure why Karim is mentioning the infamous west of the M6 will be marginal when winds are most definately will be off shore so there be no difference in temperature really. 

The rain shadow affect is more of a probability though, you can see that already, Infact places to the east of the Pennines could be in for a real treat tonight and into tomorrow. Going to be interesting how it develops because there could be surprises even in the NW but I fancy Yorkshire mainly to get hard hit by snow. 

[Penrith Snow]

I can't believe my luck today, had 3cms of dry powdery snow this morning and now the front seems to have slowed down over Cumbria. A temperature of -0.6c is ensuring no melt either.

Great stuff.

Andy

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

So what you're saying is that you need to actually be on the M6 to see anything tomorrow hahahaha. West no good, East no good, motorway fantastic

Haha, well both west and east areas are due to see decent convection with the separate limiting factors present. On and around the M6 or the area from Leyland > Knutsford will be influenced by both those limiting factors to a lesser extent. Quite a complicated set up as per but locally the precip intensity will override these factors and produce decent snow.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Kasim Awan