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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

cheshire snow

By cheshire snow
in Regional

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SnowWatcher2 Aficionado

SnowWatcher2

Posted
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
Posted

I know its a while off but must say I'm currently favoring the latest outlook for next Wednesday... both GFS and ECM looking good at moment...

image.thumb.png.14f3234aeebb4f154cc054acd8319ece.pngimage.thumb.png.2353c763e2a67345a7b08afea87c13a6.png < ECM (19/01)

image.thumb.png.e9a293a926699122211d825e65c3e649.pngimage.thumb.png.83d589cee97c259b8ba234d5ed7af3a5.png< GFS (19/01)

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image.thumb.png.aca260457ec48f5c950edc5b53f40ce8.pngimage.thumb.png.d7f264f6be27355cf71f9e105ee9bf67.png< ECM (20/01)

image.thumb.png.eddfe0444244fae14b985a8c2913855b.pngimage.thumb.png.7f24047e4532ba634be9aa66b60ee35d.png< GFS(20/01)

I wouldn't mind either of those outcomes, must say though I'm slightly favoring the GFS if it tracks north a bit more.

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SnowWatcher2 Aficionado

SnowWatcher2

Posted
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
  • Location: High Crompton, Shaw (213m/699ft asl)
Posted

 Also liking the current update for tomorrow just issued by the METOFFICE - they could be just getting my hopes up though, will have to wait and see

image.png

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Author
Posted

Might not have to wait that long trying to snow now at Manchester airport.

C.S

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted

Interesting weather over the next 48 hours with plenty of precipitation across the region.

heavy rain for most but the potential for a lot of snow over high ground, certainly tomorrow as the front stalls and then starts to head back and further south.

 

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severe snowstorm Maestro

severe snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
Posted

Interesting reports above.  Metoffice forecast mentions sleet or snow for some today, tonight and tomorrow, again not exclusively on the hills. Therefore I think this is still looking potentially promising, especially for those higher up in the East of the region.

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severe snowstorm Maestro

severe snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
Posted
3 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Might not have to wait that long trying to snow now at Manchester airport.

C.S

That's only at 78m asl as well so very encouraging.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Freezing level is between 1500–2500 m all day today through to  tomorrow morning but then it drops abruptly to around 300 m or less as the cold air undercuts and DP starts to fall as well so that’s when the snow chance begins. Can’t see anything except freezing rain chance in places  today unless DP is  low throughout the atmosphere Column. 

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severe snowstorm Maestro

severe snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
Posted
15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Freezing level is between 1500–2500 m all day today through to  tomorrow morning but then it drops abruptly to around 300 m or less as the cold air undercuts and DP starts to fall as well so that’s when the snow chance begins. Can’t see anything except freezing rain chance in places  today unless DP is  low throughout the atmosphere Column. 

Thanks for this, very informative. Manchester Airport TAF includes snow risk in the forecast from midnight onwards tonight so I assume that's about the time when freezing level and dewpoints start to become more favourable for lower level snow. 

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dodge Accomplished

dodge

Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
Posted

Could be heading for the biggest cold spell 'bust' according too the 'mad' thread if this much vaunted SSW doesn't produce the wintry goods before January sails out.  Not the best overnight model runs but it will probably be back on track by this afternoon.

In the short term...possible back edge slush tomorrow as the cold rain turns a little sleety on its exit.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted
26 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Thanks for this, very informative. Manchester Airport TAF includes snow risk in the forecast from midnight onwards tonight so I assume that's about the time when freezing level and dewpoints start to become more favourable for lower level snow. 

 In the east of the region yes but further west have to wait till later in the morning and don’t know how far  the undercut will make it yet.

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted

Am I right in thinking that its the southern contingent that are gathering their toys and prams?

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Best avoid that thread

Its becoming difficult to follow.  I know its compared to a rollercoaster but it seems like two in parallel with one dipping at the same time the other is climbing. 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Its becoming difficult to follow.  I know its compared to a rollercoaster but it seems like two in parallel with one dipping at the same time the other is climbing. 

Sustained cold is probably not on the cards, the ensembles have clearly pointed to milder weather breaking through at times especially for the south hence the toys being ejected left right and centre.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted
19 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Am I right in thinking that its the southern contingent that are gathering their toys and prams?

Always. Even a certain Mr S M the other day was throwing toys which is a little unusual for him and now he seems to have disappeared.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

The South always gets the best heat and storm/MCS’s in the long-term  so only  fair we should get the best of the  snow in the short term

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted
Just now, frosty ground said:

He has been banned

 

Just now, frosty ground said:

He has been banned

Are right didn’t know. Too many toys then.

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
Just now, Chris.R said:

Always. Even a certain Mr S M the other day was throwing toys which is a little unusual for him and now he seems to have disappeared.

I believe he's on the naughty step and has resorted to twitter.

Yes, looking forward to something is a positive driver but equally, its a good thing to balance it out with disappointment if what you get doesn't meet your expectation.

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raul_sbd Rising Star

raul_sbd

Posted
  • Location: Glossop 165m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Glossop 165m asl
Posted

DP already too high at this stage for anything good today here at lowland levels 1.9c .. will see if improves tomorrow

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Have installed a backup weather station which has the correct DP/RH as the main one was not working. Will be able to report DP now.

currently temp 2.3°C, DP 1.6°C.

 

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