North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Rush2019]

41 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Best avoid that thread

Should come with a government health warning. LOL

 

 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Rush2112 said:

Should come with a government health warning. LOL

 

 

May cause scenes like this.

[itsnowjoke]

Chucking it down here

[Had Worse]

That child seems to be the cause above your post.

[Snow free zone]

Cold and wet here, looks pretty similar for the next day or 2 as well. Back to exercising inside I think  

[frosty ground]

Amber warning for North East and south East Scotland.

[A Face like Thunder]

8 hours ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

I know its a while off but must say I'm currently favoring the latest outlook for next Wednesday... both GFS and ECM looking good at moment...

 < ECM (19/01)

< GFS (19/01)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

< ECM (20/01)

< GFS(20/01)

I wouldn't mind either of those outcomes, must say though I'm slightly favoring the GFS if it tracks north a bit more.

Yes, there was a bit about this on the BBC NW News last night, but unsurprisingly Owain Wyn Evans was hedging his bets on this one for the moment!

[damianslaw]

2.5 degrees and moderate rain, not much change expected all day.. most unpleasant.

[Spah1]

 

Bit of interest Saturday. 
 

I thought this was the mild spell. 
 

Would love to be under the orange warning  

[Chris.R]

Slight upgrade on 06Z WRF. freezing level a bit lower at 270 m at my location and a bit more precip. Don’t have data for wetbulb 0°C level but guessing it’s probably about 180–200 m going by RH. 

Still not good enough for this far west as DP is above zero at my altitude but should be good enough for M6 East with evaporative cooling I would’ve thought.

anymore  upgrades  tonight  and maybe I might be  in the game, only needs a little bit more.

[Chris.R]

Further to my last post, looking at the data again for a point further inland. It looks to me like there will be a period of ice pellets between about 6 am – 9 am above 100 m, as the cold air undercuts at the boundary layer but there remains a inversion above freezing between 900–850 mb.

After 9 am this inversion gets mixed out -  so snow above 100–150 m east of M6 after ice pellets is my prediction for tomorrow.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Chris.R

[frosty ground]

Looks like the cold air is making more progress that originally thought according to the UKMET App (Usual bunk applies)

Sleet from tonight changing to snow in the Thursday morning.

Saturday is looking a better prospect. Also heavy snow falls can not be ruled out now for the next few weeks.

[SnowWatcher2]

3 hours ago, frosty ground said:

UK MET App has heavy snow by 8 in the morning, so a correction west must have occurred over night

Well that changed to sleet then light snow, but it will change every hour now.

Yea,  its either going to be a great surprise or a big disappointment. Not going to check the MET forecast again now until last minute as they always get my hopes up.  

[Iceaxecrampon]

Big difference to say the least in 00z to 06z  - this was at +186

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, Spah1 said:

 

Bit of interest Saturday. 
 

I thought this was the mild spell. 
 

Would love to be under the orange warning  

METO Amber is Bellingham Nr Kielder.....!  North Tyne area a fantastic part of the North and  remote at the best of times especially the road to Otterburn - we had booked for next month.

[Had Worse]

Webcams – Settle and Carlisle Railway Trust

SETTLECARLISLETRUST.ORG.UK

Should be a good view based on the clear working camera

 

[HafrenLMP1]

I've driven through Bellingham plenty of times when going to Kielder Forest to spectate at rallies; there was/is also a nice chippy there as well......

[Iceaxecrampon]

5 minutes ago, HafrenLMP1 said:

I've driven through Bellingham plenty of times when going to Kielder Forest to spectate at rallies; there was/is also a nice chippy there as well......

And the Clubman events at Otterburn Camp? - I should've guessed by your userid

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, Chris.R said:

. Can’t see anything except freezing rain chance in places  today unless DP is  low throughout the atmosphere Column. 

How can you have freezing rain if its not below freezing? Its never going to get below freezing, if you see what I'm saying 

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How can you have freezing rain if its not below freezing? Its never going to get below freezing, if you see what I'm saying 

Yes of course I meant earlier on on high ground where it might still be below freezing. Not now though.

[trickydicky]

Strange day out there. There was a hard frost first thing but it started to rain at about 10 and has only risen to 1c. When I went out I expected there to be snow everywhere uphill of here but despite the rain the cloud is clear of the fells and it’s not even snowing on the tops at 800M+. 

[Chris.R]

7 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

Strange day out there. There was a hard frost first thing but it started to rain at about 10 and has only risen to 1c. When I went out I expected there to be snow everywhere uphill of here but despite the rain the cloud is clear of the fells and it’s not even snowing on the tops at 800M+. 

There is a strong inversion above the surface with temps of  3–6°C between 950–825 mb (500–1900m)

Edited January 13, 2021 by Chris.R

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

There is a strong inversion above the surface with temps of  3–6°C between 950–825 mb (500–1900m)

When will this start to clear? is there any sites you can monitor? or do we just follow the latest short term models?

[Frost HoIIow]

Might get a bit of back edge sleet here tomorrow. Oh the joys haha. I reckon it's looking better than this for those of you above 200m+ though.

[HafrenLMP1]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

And the Clubman events at Otterburn Camp? - I should've guessed by your userid

Funnily enough - no; most events there are on a Sunday, and can go on until past 5-6 o'clock - and I don't like the long drive (3-4 hours)  back home on a Sunday evening before work the next day.