South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Jan 2021 onwards

[Jackski4]

 

25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Chances are good > odds are for a memorable cold spell about 75% on...

Friday AM catches my eye!

Hi Steve, are we still on for showers turning to snow Monday evening through Tuesday? Thanks 

[jright35]

Heavy sleet showers here in Iwade (Sittingbourne) right now.

[Eagle Eye]

Afternoon everyone

Showery Rain, Cold Rain as well, Rain Type NO37:Biting Rain

 

[snowrye]

1 day, all the ingredients will come together for us

[Biggin]

V8 radar predictions for 16.00

"weather" incoming

 

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, jright35 said:

Heavy sleet showers here in Iwade (Sittingbourne) right now.

I think that bodes well given these very hostile DPs. Later this afternoon set to drop.

[southbank]

I get the frustration and agree the cold spell is a o out of ten but the potential is there for something decent and dare I say maybe phenomenal . There are background signals that are keeping the Uk in the game and these just just might roll us the prefect 6 . But at the moment what we have is the slow building blocks which has always been the way for us in the SE. I remember looking at the weather with mostly north of Watford getting all the fun until the right conditions landed the goods for london / se in the 1970 and 80’s. The NWP models are struggling with the current set up as you can see in the discussions , so we just may see a slight warm up as the wave length changes in response to the SSW happening . But this is the exciting bit , most are forecasting a displacement then maybe a split that could just could deliver the goods with two daughter vortices  one over northern US and other over scandi allowing a HLb to fill the void over Greenland keeping us very much on cold side of the jet.

lots going on which the NWP prob won’t resolve until next week as I won’t expect anything tasty regarding snow until end of jan ( although depending how the trough drops from Iceland late this week is a point of interest ) but this is probably the best set up I have seen in almost 16 years from the old BBC Snow Watch 

 

[Eagle Eye]

12 minutes ago, Biggin said:

V8 radar predictions for 16.00

"weather" incoming

 

More Weather is predicted. 

[lottiekent]

1 minute ago, southbank said:

I get the frustration and agree the cold spell is a o out of ten but the potential is there for something decent and dare I say maybe phenomenal . There are background signals that are keeping the Uk in the game and these just just might roll us the prefect 6 . But at the moment what we have is the slow building blocks which has always been the way for us in the SE. I remember looking at the weather with mostly north of Watford getting all the fun until the right conditions landed the goods for london / se in the 1970 and 80’s. The NWP models are struggling with the current set up as you can see in the discussions , so we just may see a slight warm up as the wave length changes in response to the SSW happening . But this is the exciting bit , most are forecasting a displacement then maybe a split that could just could deliver the goods with two daughter vortices  one over northern US and other over scandi allowing a HLb to fill the void over Greenland keeping us very much on cold side of the jet.

lots going on which the NWP prob won’t resolve until next week as I won’t expect anything tasty regarding snow until end of jan ( although depending how the trough drops from Iceland late this week is a point of interest ) but this is probably the best set up I have seen in almost 16 years from the old BBC Snow Watch 

 

I was a member on that forum! Used to be turned off at 11pm or something didn’t it?

Just back from a  drive to pets at home, very heavy wintry shower en route. Again, sleet and ice pellets even though the DP is 3c.

Wonder what time they are meant to start dropping off again?

[John Stevens]

Afternoon walk in the Surrey Hills... at the top of Holmbury Hill and some snizzle in the air

[Southender]

15 minutes ago, Biggin said:

V8 radar predictions for 16.00

"weather" incoming

 

Horrible amount of cold rain

[Binsey72]

Just enjoyed this in Aylesford ! Better than nothing !!

[Jackski4]

An hour and 15 until the 12z’s start coming out. Good to hear of all these reports of wintryness in the showers today as uppers and dew points are only going to drop from today onwards so if we’re already having sleet it bodes well

[Jason M]

1 hour ago, pinball wizard said:

I don't think it has gone Pete Tong, truth is we've never had anything for our region progged by more than one model less than three days away. Until we have multiple models showing a snowfall in the t48 timeframe it's best not get excited. That way expectations can be managed..

Completely agree. This was never going to be anything more than a couple of weeks of rather cold weather with a bit of wintry stuff thrown in. Some people tend to look at pretty charts and scream snow when the reality is very different. Its almost sacrilege to point out that the chart that is apparently showing a 'blizzards' is actually just showing 'cold rain'. Where I live I'm not expecting any snow to settle this week albeit I can't completely rule it out. Up over the higher ground of Kent I'd be more hopeful.

Some of the ramping in the other thread has (and continues) to be simply crazy and OTT. The funny part is that if a cold spell does show its face in a few weeks time people will be saying they were right all along whereas the people who kept saying this would be nothing special will just stay quite (despite being right).

Next on the agenda is the SSW. Fun times .

Meanwhile the rain continues to fall outside!

[southbank]

9 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I was a member on that forum! Used to be turned off at 11pm or something didn’t it?

Just back from a  drive to pets at home, very heavy wintry shower en route. Again, sleet and ice pellets even though the DP is 3c.

Wonder what time they are meant to start dropping off again?

Do you remember the 2003 mini Thames streamer on that forum ? I maybe wrong as memory is playing havoc but I’m sure we had a few posters from here on that bbc snow watch explaining to us newbies what was happening.

that 2003 event shows you just need it all to come together to get a decent event . It was caused by a pool of very cold 850 moving in from the North East on NNE wind . Was working in Moorgate at the time and believe we had a few inches even in central london which maybe the biggest since 1991. Was great to find others loved the weather as much as me

[Lampostwatcher]

Would love to see upgrades on the 12z for this evening till Friday 

Regarding the ppn

[danm]

BBC app showing heavy snow showers for Tuesday here in Chingford. Still some chances this week I’d suspect, although it won’t be wall to wall cold and we’ll probably get a mixture of rain/sleet/snow this week:

[scrat]

Hail here.... now snizzle 

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

Just enjoyed this in Aylesford ! Better than nothing !!

Is that maidstone or bucks

[Lampostwatcher]

Showers today coming well inland 

Bodes well for the week ahead

[chelsea01]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Is that maidstone or bucks

Maidstone Steve 

[snow raven]

Pouring with rain currently in Bexleyheath.  And judging by the weather graphics on the BBC weather on TV this afternoon, it looks like 48 hours of a Thames streamer of rain ahead 

[Binsey72]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Is that maidstone or bucks

Near maidstone 

[Stabilo19]

Moderate rain mixed with hail in N London currently. 

This "cold" period has been underwhelming so far IMBY, but the upcoming week is looking better for the SE. Fingers crossed!

[Polaris]

BBC going for heavy rain streaming into Kent tomorrow 

fingers crossed it changes to snow