South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Dorsetbred]

Just now, Nights King said:

Well west country is not doing well this year. Models showing some love for eastern half into feb. 

I think models are always looking good at 10days out, get them down to 72hrs and they present a very different story. Ho hum that's what you get for a little island on the eastern edge of a large Ocean, AND they don't belong to Europe anymore , so there's a lot less clout..!

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

That's so we don't get water in our boots from the flooding.. 

Balancing on tiptoe does give a couple more cms of height in flood water conditions, have to agree, BUT the down side is, you look like the fairy on top of the Christmas tree in floodwater...

[jethro]

29 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

I see the Bristol & Bath snow shield is in place for next week..

 

 

Afternoon all, question from a dim wit here......how come the North Sea can generate lots of snow if the incoming air stream is cold enough, but the Bristol channel just serves to divert it away from this area? 

[sukayuonsensnow]

35 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

I see the Bristol & Bath snow shield is in place for next week..

 

 

Almost looks like that yellow line is following a certain motorway.........

[Dorsetbred]

4 minutes ago, jethro said:

Afternoon all, question from a dim wit here......how come the North Sea can generate lots of snow if the incoming air stream is cold enough, but the Bristol channel just serves to divert it away from this area? 

It's not so much the Bristol channel I think, it's the direct from which the air is coming from, it's warm, so would need a shed of cold air to pull it down to them snowy levels. The Bristol Channel can actually be a snow shower generator under the right conditions

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Almost looks like that yellow line is following a certain motorway.........

And we know which one that is

 

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Almost looks like that yellow line is following a certain motorway.........

Nah surely not, isn't the belief that the M4 is ONLY a motorway and not a barrier to cold weather?

 

[sukayuonsensnow]

There might be some surprises tomorrow, depending of course on the intensity of the precipitation. Just thinking back a week or two to Storm Christoph and the snow that brought some parts of NW England and parts of the Midlands.

I suspect any snow though (certainly settling snow) will be for the Cotswolds and maybe the tops of the Chilterns. But I wouldn't rule out a dusting of snow in other places, again especially north of the M4.

With any intensity to precipitation, the colder air coming south, and evaporative cooling, surprises may happen. 

Of course I am speculating, forecasting evaporative cooling and the impact on precipitation can be tricky.

[BARRY]

It's better in here to much wrist slashing going on on in the model section 

 

[sukayuonsensnow]

2 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Nah surely not, isn't the belief that the M4 is ONLY a motorway and not a barrier to cold weather?

 

I literally envision one day driving past Reading on the M4, one side near Wokingham and Theale it is rain, but snow cover and snow in Earley and Winnersh.

[offerman]

12 minutes ago, jethro said:

Afternoon all, question from a dim wit here......how come the North Sea can generate lots of snow if the incoming air stream is cold enough, but the Bristol channel just serves to divert it away from this area? 

Now thats a brilliant question because i have often wondered this too.

I also have often wondered how snow showers over Germany can make it across an entire country of land not even in a trough frontal way either yet here showers can often fizzle out so quickly .

 

[sukayuonsensnow]

31 minutes ago, jethro said:

Afternoon all, question from a dim wit here......how come the North Sea can generate lots of snow if the incoming air stream is cold enough, but the Bristol channel just serves to divert it away from this area? 

North Sea can generate sea-effect snow if very cold air goes over the North Sea from Siberia/Russia/Scandi, usually with an intense Scandic high (like BFTE we had in 2018) but not always. Sea effect snow can produce a lot of snow in streamers, most notably in NW Japan (this would be us if we had an easterly from Siberia for the entire winter). (a streamer is a series of showers, usually associated with snow in the winter that affect the same sort of area, though some places 10-20 miles outside may get very little). These streamers from the east in the UK usually clip NE England, E Scotland, E England, Kent (known as a Kent clipper) and around the river Thames (known as a Thames streamer, 1/2 February 2009 I remember a great Thames streamer then).

My take is that areas adjacent to the Bristol Channel, you have higher land parts like the Cotswolds nearby, which may mitigate some of the snow showers from getting more west, unless you get streamers over the English Channel that move north (or they form into a channel low). Think something like this happened in some SW areas in the second BFTE in March 2018. As well as that, to the northwest of the Bristol Channel you also have the hilly/mountainous parts of Wales, which may mitigate precipitation from the northwest from making it here as well. Higher ground areas absorb more of those showers, unless its an actual low pressure/trough/frontal system moving in. If you have a cold/westerly or northwesterly at the right angle, I suppose you could have snow showers/streamers in these areas adjacent to the Bristol Channel too, although I don't know with that wind direction if it would be marginal.

Bristol Channel areas usually benefit the most from a channel low or a slider in regards to major snow events, partly due to geography. Storm Emma being a relatively recent example in early March 2018.

I think I explained things OK, maybe someone else can chip in. I'm not always the best at explaining this sort of thing. There may be anomalous examples of particular snow events that may disprove what I said above.

Edited January 29, 2021 by sukayuonsensnow

[Leon1]

Why are people in the mad thread taking every single run at face value instead of looking at the bigger picture? 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Leon1

[Adrian Major]

1 hour ago, SilverWolf said:

Well this weekend feels different to last weekend! Before the snow came Sunday morning here in Stroud it was a couple below freezing, and in reality we didn’t actually have that much snow  fall, it wasn’t anywhere near a whiteout. But, every flake settled! 

I’ve seen rain turn to snow (after many hours of rain) and then settle quite a few times, so there’s that too. But it’s so damn mild today! Anyone know when is the colder air due to arrive? Is it going to get colder than now before the rain/snow arrives or later on? I’d be happier if it at least started marginal personally..... 

For us Stroudies I reckon Sat will be sleet unless you are on higher ground. Sunday looks better as by then we are under colder air. 

[JimBob]

Can’t see any real cold down south in the next 7 days, going to be battleground type scenario’s and somebody might get lucky, other than that lots of rain and possible flooding!  

[Dorsetbred]

22 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Why are people in the mad thread taking every single run at face value instead of looking at the bigger picture? 

The midlands will probably get another 10 snow events before April at this rate anyway...  Our region has done better than last year but not good enough... yet. I really want the whole of our region to get something good - like a channel low in the perfect position to give everyone even down to the coasts some snow. 

Yeah, that's what they do in there, always good for a decent slaying of the peasants I reckon...A good play to stay away from at times like these, everyman and his dog has reason to analyse EVERY twitch of a model output. I always switch to TWO in times like these, far more civilised, no back biting and good reasoning..sad to say but the MOD is never a place to visit during winter I find...   

Edited January 29, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[birdman]

Looks like there is alot of rain before it transitions to snow. Certainly that's the forecast for West Oxon at the moment. Anyone think it will be cold enough to actually settle? I'm not so sure? 

[SilverWolf]

21 minutes ago, Adrian Major said:

For us Stroudies I reckon Sat will be sleet unless you are on higher ground. Sunday looks better as by then we are under colder air. 

Think you’re prob right. I did see an hour of back edge snow put 2 inches down after 7 hours of rain and fairly mild, about 15 years ago - so we may get lucky towards the end. I reckon the usual hills around here may have more than last weekend, as there’s more precipitation coming, but we’ll see.

The coming week could be way more interesting here with cold likely to be in place first. 

 

[Shaftesburydelightski]

Been posting for just a week and changed my profile name and put on a member photo

Walking the dog last week in lovely fresh snow and fear tomorrow will be cold, but very wet rain! Looking forward to next week and good to see the Met app temperature dropping. Everything crossed for a good spell of proper winter weather for us all to enjoy and take our minds off the bug!!

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Of course I am speculating, forecasting evaporative cooling and the impact on precipitation can be tricky.

I think evaporative cooling is better under calm or light wind conditions, tomorrow could be too windy.

1 hour ago, offerman said:

Now thats a brilliant question because i have often wondered this too.

I also have often wondered how snow showers over Germany can make it across an entire country of land not even in a trough frontal way either yet here showers can often fizzle out so quickly .

 

Cannot remove this quote, someone else has answered it brilliantly re high ground.

[kumquat]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

Yeah, that's what they do in there, always good for a decent slaying of the peasants I reckon...A good play to stay away from at times like these, everyman and his dog has reason to analyse EVERY twitch of a model output. I always switch to TWO in times like these, far more civilised, no back biting and good reasoning..sad to say but the MOD is never a place to visit during winter I find...   

Is Steve Murr on TWO?

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

2 hours ago, BARRY said:

It's better in here to much wrist slashing going on on in the model section 

 

If you thought it was bad then, it’s even worse now thanks to a stonking sorry I mean stinking run from ECM.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

6 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Is Steve Murr on TWO?

I believe he is.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Wiltshireweatherwatcher

[kumquat]

Yeah lol ECM has thrown a spanner in tonight.  When you come back from cooking tea and there's over 100 posts you know things have either gone full boom or Pete Tong.

[alex12]

Even worse for the SW now then?