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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

bluearmy

By bluearmy
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Para with the trigger shortwave and is about to sky high!

image.thumb.png.00ffefcfb4bc518b0cff4fb099bcb9eb.png image.thumb.png.341d321d0f3b35651450cf96dfa89ded.png 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Looking forward to the ECM. It wouldnt take much sharpening to see low pressures slide into the UK.

Theres certainly increasing ensemble support for this scenario.

Would you not agree we are seeing this "milder" spell eaten from both sides?

Yes the models have clearly shifted away from milder Westerly influence in the mid term, they have just gone about in different ways  either with trough dropping further W or energy being deflected E and maintaining high pressure over the the UK. It is all about the timing of the trough moving up from the SE V the trough pushing down from the NW. I was talking about that race determining our pattern toward mid month what seems like an eternity ago and back then I favoured the trough from the NW.

Either of those winning conclusively though is better for us IMO, it is the middle ground which would bring the flattest pattern, at least for a few days because I do expect the Atlantic sector to amplify again.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Para with the trigger shortwave and is about to sky high!

image.thumb.png.00ffefcfb4bc518b0cff4fb099bcb9eb.png image.thumb.png.341d321d0f3b35651450cf96dfa89ded.png 

It's been flirting with this in FI for last few days on and off... 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is it wrong of me to actually prefer UKM at 144.. that has got to be cold at surface after a week of cold and no real mild air into Europe for nearly two weeks by then...

think I would like the slow stable type, preparing the way for fun and games which you have to think are possible with the NH looking like that..

image.thumb.gif.0c3a85732810b86f292413550b7fe171.gif

 

I agree.

Having the HP over us is preferable to South of us and any retrograde North would have less far to travel.

I'm hoping the ECM is similar to the UKMO at t144 so we get an idea of what may happen next.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yes the models have clearly shifted away from milder Westerly influence in the mid term, they have just gone about in different ways  either with trough dropping further W or energy being deflected E and maintaining high pressure over the the UK. It is all about the timing of the trough moving up from the SE V the trough pushing down from the NW. I was talking about that race determining our pattern toward mid month what seems like an eternity ago and back then I favoured the trough from the NW.

Either of those winning conclusively though is better for us IMO, it is the middle ground which would bring the flattest pattern, at least for a few days because I do expect the Atlantic sector to amplify again.

Yes! Thats a very good description of what we have going forward!

Ill be signing back in at 6:45 so well see!

(Trying to post less)

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

It's been flirting with this in FI for last few days on and off... 

I have been in part of the wedge gang, but the heights over the arctic are increasing and providing the link up needed. More runs needed as always and more support. 

If the ECM is anything like the Para I'll be happy.

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted
4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

I have been in part of the wedge gang, but the heights over the arctic are increasing and providing the link up needed. More runs needed as always and more support. 

If the ECM is anything like the Para I'll be happy.

Me too. Not posted in a while as been swamped with work but been paying close attention. Frustrating to lose the medium term window for deep cold but we don't need to cast our eyes much beyond 10 days out to see the real potential that's there. GFSP shows such a way, and typifies the response we'd hope for after a SSW. If youre not one of the lucky ones this week - and there will be some - then don't despair...watch for trends over the coming week. 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incoming.....

5214714F-67E4-4965-B124-3B2D589540DC.png

C387AEFE-486E-4243-A509-F1CD5231D128.png

9DF25765-1AD8-4890-A29E-BC5F79DD1E60.png

Certainly no appetite on most runs to whip up Atlantic storms - any storms seem more likely to the NE than W in coming weeks. Storms in NE can put the UK at risk of a 1987 style northerly, though again needs luck. GFSP tonight having a go!

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Some noticeable changes up towards 120 hours out as expected. Perhaps the first signs of the models properly taking into account the SSW. A lot more westerly momentum of the heights to the NE, and the shortwave exiting Greenland being forced further S-SE under a possible developing block. Expect some volatility over the next couple of days! 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Polar vortex starting to move back towards its default position right up top, might only have a limited window of opportunity low down so need to start seeing some stellar charts in the next few days.

image.thumb.png.c985d3ddfd09c53782abd524913f4f5c.png

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

image.thumb.png.88c7b83ba5013350f40ad8baece0d5ba.png

Well, for what it's worth, this is the first run to really show what I've been feeling out to be the tropospheric response to the main polar vortex being displaced over Eurasia while a weak secondary one ends up somewhere over the North Atlantic.

A deep cold trough close to the east, with high pressure to the west but not a solid wall, leaving us to nervously track LP systems cutting through and disrupting / sliding against the deep cold.

 

Clearly though, only some of the model runs are seeing a stratosphere-troposphere connection, as opposed to the La Nina base state forcing a disconnect via stalling the downwell.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Polar vortex starting to move back towards its default position right up top, might only have a limited window of opportunity low down so need to start seeing some stellar charts in the next few days.

 

And right on cue, the Para is a stonker, that is the first run i have ever seen by where a shortwave is thrown out by one body of troughing to another across Iceland and ends up a good run still, its absorbed 'fairly' cleanly, what you don't want is the shortwave stalling in between, this usually ends up in tears, its not quite made it yet but its track is ok, stonking uppers incoming from the East.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Blimey its been  cold out there today, glad to get home! the worse type 3c wet and windy!  a couple of degrees lower would have been in business!

image.thumb.png.5957f2b3094621e108aa9e2f704b36c9.pngimage.thumb.png.4cb96257dfbcf88d97779acdd79d55bf.png surely we must be able to eek some white gold out of these!                                                                                               Notice the Stratstranauts haven't posted much lately! hopefully means no news is good news!,Although not usually the case on here!

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
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Posted

Don’t forget that the GFSp has form for giving us broken promises and shattering snow lovers dreams. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury I give you exhibit TB01.....I have this weather porn printed on my pillowcase to help me sleep at night

36E90D19-9DFC-4C51-82F9-623EB0CD4966.jpeg

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Gregulator Explorer

Gregulator

Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
  • Weather Preferences: Winter spring autumn
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire, Uk
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Don’t forget that the GFSp has form for giving us broken promises and shattering snow lovers dreams. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury I give you exhibit TB01.....I have this weather porn printed on my pillowcase to help me sleep at night

36E90D19-9DFC-4C51-82F9-623EB0CD4966.jpeg

And only 14 days away!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Don’t forget that the GFSp has form for giving us broken promises and shattering snow lovers dreams. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury I give you exhibit TB01.....I have this weather porn printed on my pillowcase to help me sleep at night

36E90D19-9DFC-4C51-82F9-623EB0CD4966.jpeg

Definitely a ramp from Marco P at the Met, along these lines... Maybe....  

Hot off the press. 

 

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Polar vortex starting to move back towards its default position right up top, might only have a limited window of opportunity low down so need to start seeing some stellar charts in the next few days.

image.thumb.png.c985d3ddfd09c53782abd524913f4f5c.png

Stop looking for the end when we’re barely at the beginning!

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