South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Dami]

ah phooey, missed out again.

If it's not snow, it's thunder.

[Scandinavian High.]

I can see why met office as mentioned significant accumulations  London south east looking at front it pivots just over London back across south east London..

[lawrenk]

Any thoughts on marginality near the coast? I’m about 10 miles inland (E Sx) and the forecasts look a bit knife edge for us. I fear a scenario where I see a sleety mess whilst Heathfield, 5 miles up the road, has all snow.

Edited January 23, 2021 by lawrenk
Typo

[East Kent Snow Desert]

26 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I’m in Folkestone and expect only rain. Somehow Canterbury seems to do a little better than us, not sure what the elevation is there?

Canterbury City is only 20m asl but the hospital where I work is 150m. Distance from the coasts is the key parameter I expect

[Ackkers]

Steadily colder since daybreak here. Now +0.1C DP -0.6C. Rather cloudy.

[E17boy]

Morning Peeps

Hope your all well and safe anyone got any idea of how NE London is looking for tomorrow,s snow.

I am trying to hold my excitement

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Morning Peeps

Hope your all well and safe anyone got any idea of how NE London is looking for tomorrow,s snow.

I am trying to hold my excitement

Well the BBC have NW London 

Snowing from 9am till 6pm 

With heavy snow till 2pm 

[Tim Bland]

Latest GFS good for the whole region late tomorrow’

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Well the BBC have NW London 

Snowing from 9am till 6pm 

With heavy snow till 2pm 

So me being here in Walthamstow NE of the reagion  I could probably say got a good chance. I really hope everyone is in the party tomorrow across our region we have waited long enough. I really it's not the sleety rainy muck we saw last Weekend

[E17boy]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest GFS good for the whole region late tomorrow’

That's looking good. Nice several hours of it. I think the more heavier it is the more chance of it settling. The reason I say this is I have seen snow events which have just turned everything wet rather than white

[Lampostwatcher]

Bank

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

If Met Office upgrade to an amber warning then I’ll get excited. At the moment reckon only a dusting possible over the Thames regions

[chionomaniac]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest GFS good for the whole region late tomorrow’

I reckon that shows a mixture of rain, sleet and a wet snow slush fest for all southern coastal counties

[Southender]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

If Met Office upgrade to an amber warning then I’ll get excited. At the moment reckon only a dusting possible over the Thames regions

That’s the last thing you want to happen!

Normally the kiss of death for snow  

[E17boy]

Just had a look at the timings for tomorrow. Looks as if 9am is kick off and temperatures still near 0 degrees at that time. This is good as the cold surface will help the snow to settle rather than melt. Once we get that first dusting lying then anything falling on top will probably continue adding on

[paget]

I know I shouldn’t take them too literally but it worries me a bit that the bbc & Meto forecast shows snow tomorrow morning for us (hooray) but sleet by midday!  
 

temp -0.3 

dp -0.1 

(Farnham, Surrey) 

 

[Biensie]

1 hour ago, Lauren said:

BBC has upgraded to heavy snow for me tomorrow. I shall remain sceptical to avoid disappointment. 

Hi Lauren, I’m curious as to where you are in Medway , it covers a large area. You have two snow symbols which I’m very jealous of and last weekend you saw some snow and I didn’t so you must be on a big hill somewhere?  

[Tim Bland]

It’s going down to between -3 & -5c tonight with some freezing fog so all surfaces will be frozen solid by the time the snow arrives in the morning. I’d only be worried if I was right on the coast as DP may rise a bit too high by lunchtime 

[BeazleyBlizzard]

3 minutes ago, paget said:

I know I shouldn’t take them too literally but it worries me a bit that the bbc & Meto forecast shows snow tomorrow morning for us (hooray) but sleet by midday!  
 

temp -0.3 

dp -0.1 

(Farnham, Surrey) 

 

I'm down the road in Bordon and it looks like 7 miles south, Petersfield is showing the transition to sleet and rain. We've had literally nothing in the way of snow this year and really am hoping the margins are in our favour tomorrow. It would be nice to walk in the forest with snow falling and the crunch under our feet! Fingers crossed. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s going down to between -3 & -5c tonight with some freezing fog so all surfaces will be frozen solid by the time the snow arrives in the morning. I’d only be worried if I was right on the coast as DP may rise a bit too high by lunchtime 

Yes temps inland im not overly worried.. but peeps on the coast it looks hit and miss but that is always the case unless we have really frigid cold air..

 

Sweet spot still look like somwhere west of London. Maybe some high spots around Bracknell/Reading way 

[paget]

3 minutes ago, BeazleyBlizzard said:

I'm down the road in Bordon and it looks like 7 miles south, Petersfield is showing the transition to sleet and rain. We've had literally nothing in the way of snow this year and really am hoping the margins are in our favour tomorrow. It would be nice to walk in the forest with snow falling and the crunch under our feet! Fingers crossed. 

Hi neighbour! 
 

im not convinced it going to happen! (Trying not to be disappointed!) we haven’t seen a flake this year so far!!

[Easily sled]

So this could possibly happen, will believe it when I see it but fingers crossed!

[Brocken Spectre]

Seems that North Kent/Medway may luck out a little compared to other areas say, Berks/Surrey/West and South London, where the pivot point is.  Meteo's precip' modelling seems to show a snow to rain to snow event in the Medway area, which has probably something to do with mixing out with some warmer Thames Estuary temps as it passes over the North Downs and the band didn't look as wide in this area.
However with all snow events here in the South East nothing is nailed until the day and hour it arrives!
Fingers crossed snow lovers.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Brocken Spectre

[Paul Sherman]

Well as others have said if it gets down to -5c tonight I am defo going out for some early morning pictures before the frost melts away, could be some rime chances if any freezing fog forms overnight

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, lawrenk said:

Any thoughts on marginality near the coast? I’m about 10 miles inland (E Sx) and the forecasts look a bit knife edge for us. I fear a scenario where I see a sleety mess whilst Heathfield, 5 miles up the road, has all snow.

Yeah and you've not got the greatest height. My guess is it probably will snow but it may well be on the marginal side. I think much is going to depend on how strong the front actually comes in. If its a bit weak then your going to struggle.

I'm going to see as I should be far enough north with enough altitude  personally but if in doubt I'll head up to one of the local hills which have 2-300m elevation and almost certainly will have lying snow.

Anyway in general looks like a snow event of some ind is pretty much nailed on how most of the SE, though obviously there are doubts about just how far NE the precip actually ends up in reality.